1. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Practices by Proxy Climate, Consumption and Water (and troubles with data...) Dr Ben Anderson University of Essex

2. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Contents Why?  Water 'practices' How?  Proxies What?  Models Problems?  Data Where next?

3. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Why: Water is (going to be) a problem Energy problems:  Carbon cost of `clean' water The water industry currently accounts for 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per Year - almost one per cent of UK greenhouse gas emissions. Environment Agency 2009

4. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Why: Water is (going to be) a problem Energy problems:  Carbon cost of `clean' water Supply problems  Locally/regionally scarce  Climate change? Demand problems  50% used by households  Poorly understood  Climate change? With no 'behaviour' change and no flow controls Source: DEFRA, 2011

5. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 What do we want to know? Practices in which water is implicated  Diversity habituation, routine, practical consciousness, tacit knowledge, tradition Performance often neither fully conscious nor reflective Alan Warde, 2005 Why people don’t do what they ‘should’ - Jim Skea, 2011

6. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 What do we want to know? Practices in which water is implicated  Diversity Proxies for practices?  'Traces' of water Relationship with climate?  Mediation, adaptation Relationship to demand?  From practices to litres Image: Eric Shipton, 1951

7. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Conceptual Framework Water demand = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error Policy levers & Interventions habituation, routine, neither conscious nor reflective Regulation Market Supply ?? Education Information Persuasion

8. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Conceptual Framework Water demand = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error Policy levers & Interventions habituation, routine, neither conscious nor reflective Regulation Market Supply ?? Education Information Persuasion Climate change

9. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 How: Expenditures as Proxies IdealProxy (LCF 2002-2010) water (l/day) Attitudes Demographics Price Practices £ water/week Attitudes Demographics Price £/week Shampoo,soap detergents Garden products Fruit & Veg Tea, coffee, juices Regional Climate/Weather linked to survey quarter

10. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 How: Modelling Approach 2005 prices Selection:  Metered only  Combined water & sewerage Seasonal models All households 39121 Metered11119 Separate water & sewerage -1387 Remaining9732

11. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 What: Summary Results Climate/Weather Practices Traces of Practices? Linear regression (OLS), Wald Table, n = 11,192, final r sq = 27%

12. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 What: Practice 'effects' Traces of Practices ?

13. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 What: Weather 'interaction effects' ProxySpringSummer Main effect InteractionMain effectInteraction Leaf & stem vegetables 0.0690.905 (unusually hot) Detergents/washing powder 0.066-0.087 (number of rain days) plants, flowers, seeds, fertilisers, insecticides N/s0.018 (temperature)

14. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 So... The 'proxies for practices' approach has value But  Garden/soils etc  Period of water use?  Expenditures as proxies? High spend != high volume Recall/response 'error'? Zeros! What to do? 72% reported no spend on soaps, shower gels etc in 2010!

15. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Approaches to 'validation' Link 'real' data Model response data Aggregate and compare with other sources

16. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Linking 'water' Practice based survey of water 'habits'  1800 respondents across South & East England  Linked metering data for survey respondents For those who agreed to linkage And whose water company also agreed (!) Metered:76942% Agreed to linkage:282 15% Agreed to linkage and metered 1327% 10% didn't know To date we only have 64 records To date we only have 32 records Of whom 4 are metered who said they weren't!

17. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Linking 'water': What we hope for...

18. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Linking 'water': What we get... 21 metered respondents who agreed to data linkage AND estimated monthly water bill To be refreshed when more data arrives

19. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' Ia Survey:  LCF 2010 DECC  Sub-regional electricity statistics (aggregated LSOAs)

20. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' Ib

21. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' IIa Ideally  Geo-referenced clusters of LCF households  Compare to DECC LSOA data

22. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' IIa Ideally  Geo-referenced clusters of LCF households  Compare to DECC LSOA data So:  Small Area Estimation East of England LSOA level electricity demand estimates Census 2001 & LCF 2010  Compare to DECC LSOA data New data please! 'Spatial Microsimulation'

23. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' IIb Forest Heath 002A/B c. 73% = Born in the USA!  LSOAs  East of England

24. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' IIc

25. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' IId Spearman rho:  Town: 0.6403  Urban: 0.5915  Village: 0.7948

26. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 So what? We can map:  Energy 'poverty'  Energy 'inequality' And we can model  Potential policy effects

27. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 So what? We can map:  Energy 'poverty'  Energy 'inequality' And we can model  Potential policy effects But also  The electricity expenditures may be robust

28. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Conclusions Thinking about expenditures as proxies for practices  Has some value BUT there are problems  Zeros?  Mis-reporting? Where next?

29. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Conclusions Thinking about expenditures as proxies for practices  Has some value BUT there are problems  Zeros?  Mis-reporting? Where next?  Data linkage?  Micro and area level calibration?

30. Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Thank you Dr Ben Anderson benander@essex.ac.uk Sustainable Practices Research Group www.sprg.ac.uk Spatial microsimulation: cresi.essex.ac.uk/getPubsByTag?tag=spatial%20microsimulation