1. NOAA Council on Long-Term Climate Monitoring (CLTCM) Eighth Meeting in Chicago, Illinois, March 7-8 2002 The Council identified three strategic issues for consideration by the SAB: Re-visiting the climate observation system requirements discussed at the last Council meeting in Seattle Prioritization of climate observations Revised Terms of Reference (TOR) for the CLTCM Request SAB to review and endorse our recommendations

2. The NOAA Council on Long-Term Climate Monitoring (CLTCM) Terms of Reference Purpose of the CLTCM:  Evaluate and prioritize requirements for existing and planned climate-related observing systems including data processing and data management related to trends and variability  Consider practices/systems that span the range of atmospheric, oceanographic, terrestrial, and cryospheric variables, with attention to issues of accuracy, biases, and errors: - forcings (solar, GHGs, aerosols...) - feedbacks (sea ice, land cover, snow cover, water vapor, clouds…) - responses (atmospheric temperature, precipitation, ecosystems…) - impacts (ecosystems, forest fires, drought…)  Report findings to NOAA management, i.e., provide advice and recommendations for observing systems improvements and requirements

3. Terms of Reference Proposed Changes Reporting Responsibilities to Include: (1)NOAA Science Advisory Board – parent body, formal reporting and approval (2) NESDIS Board of Directors (3) NOAA Climate Observations and Services Board (4) NOAA Climate & Global Change Panel More explicit involvement in recommending science priorities for data processing and archive: (1) Provide information and advice to NOAA/NESDIS Board of Directors (2) More interaction with other agencies (e.g., NASA/NSF/UCAR/NCAR, DOE, USGS) regarding data management issues

4. NOAA Science Advisory Board Council on Long-Term Climate Monitoring NESDIS Board of Directors NOAA Climate and Global Change Panel Climate Observation and Services Board formal reporting requirement and approval provide Council reports as advice

5. Prioritizing Climate Observing System Requirements A Continuing Effort that Builds on CCRI Observing Systems Initiative as Discussed at CLTCM, Seattle, July 2001  Critical Needs Continue to be:  Functional Capability to Provide Adequate Oversight and Management of the End-to-End System  Enhancement of Current GCOS Capabilities (i.e., fix what’s broken)  Introduction of New Foci (i.e., fill existing holes)  Achievement of System Balance (i.e.,deal with the whole climate system, not just the atmosphere)

6. Climate Observations Prioritized by Issue ? Starting point: Council informed about a number of NOAA Line Office observing system component requirements Council prioritized by issue: How is climate varying and changing? What are the causes? How well can we predict and project the future? What are the consequences and impacts?

7. Definition of Terms Time to Pay-Off – the time required for an impact to be realized, i.e., upgrading an existing system or implementing a new system Increasing Feasibility Increasing Impact Time to Pay-Off { Feasibility – readiness to implement the observing system component considering technical aspects, resource requirements, etc. Impact – potential for reducing uncertainties related to documenting, understanding, predicting, and assessing impacts of climate variability and change

8. How is climate varying and changing? NOTES: A = Satellite Calibration Validation B = Operationalizing climate reference data sets C = Climate Reference Network full implementation D = 3-Dimensional Ocean Observing System – e.g., ARGO E = Radiosonde replacement with continuity of climate record 1 = No cost Web Access (free data on-line) 2 = Climate Reprocessing (Pathfinder Data) 3 = Upper Air Network to measure upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric H 2 O vapor at more sites (GUAN related) GUPS = Global Unified Profiling System (HAWK Aircraft) 1A = Increased ocean observing capabilities for developing countries in Southern Hemisphere 1B = Small Networks includes upgrades of surface radiation network in U.S. GSN = GCOS Surface Network GUAN = GCOS Upper Air Network GAW = Global Atmospheric Watch CLASS = Comprehensive Large Array Stewardship System Transition Paleo Data Management to Operations – freeing up funds for more Paleo research Increasing Feasibility Increasing Impact Time to Pay-Off { Reanalysis

9. What are the causes of climate change and variability? NOTES: Tropospheric Aerosols = aerosols direct & indirect (including clouds) Solar = solar spectral irradiance Land = land cover and land use Increasing Feasibility Increasing ImpactTime to Pay-Off {

10. How well can we predict and project the future? NOTES: GUPS = Global Unified Profiling System (HAWK Aircraft) MOC = Meridional Overturning Circulation Data Archive = Includes access and science stewardship CLASS = Comprehensive Large Array Stewardship System Model Archive = Making weather and climate model output readily available Ocean OSSE = Ocean Observing System Simulation Experiments Increasing Feasibility Increasing Impact Model Archive Time to Pay-Off {

11. What are the consequences and impacts? Increasing Feasibility Increasing Impact NOTES: OP Climate Ref. Data = Operationalize Climate Reference Data Sets No Cost Web Access = Free data on line Accel. SFC Networks = Accelerate surface network implementation, modernization, and improvement. CRN, ASOS, COOPs Improved Products = Better use of existing data to improve data products, e.g., drought, vegetation, fire, surface climate, etc. Dev. Country High Altitudes = Improved Climate Monitoring at high altitudes and in developing countries, e.g., Global Surface Network Time to Pay-Off {

12. Observing systems included in more than one science question Increasing Feasibility Increasing Impact NOTES GUPS = Global Unified Profiling System (HAWK Aircraft) Data Archive = Includes access and science stewardship CLASS = Comprehensive Large Array Stewardship System GUAN = GCOS Upper Air Network to measure upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric H 2 O vapor at more sites No Cost Web Access = Free data on line OP Climate Ref. Data = Operationalize Climate Reference Data Sets CRN = Climate Reference Network full implementation 3-Dimensional Ocean Observing System – e.g., ARGO Time to Pay-Off { These 2 items appear twice

13. Cost requirements for a comprehensive Multi-Agency Climate Observing System (Investment above current funding) ActivityYear 1 Year 3 Year 5 Coordinating/Oversight Capability $ 80M $100M$120M In situ atmospheric observing system components $ 40M $ 50M$100M In situ ocean & sea ice observing system components $ 40M $ 60M$150M in situ terrestrial observing system components $ 30M $ 50M$100M Additional observations from satellite $ 20M $ 40M$100M Satellite launch, orbital, & communication issues$ 50M$200M Paleoclimate observing system components $ 10M $ 20M$ 20M Data processing, assimilation into models $ 30M $ 45M$ 90M Data and information management $ 20M $ 35M$ 70M ______________________________________________________________ Total$270M$450M$950M