1. Confidence in Assessments Workshop in Anchorage, Alaska 26 and 27 March, 2008

2. Lines of Evidence Environmental Compartments Assessment of Effects Trajectory

3. Evaluating Effects Environmental Compartments –Degree Of Effect Short and long term impacts –Area Of Effect Size of impact zone small or large –Rate Of Recovery Components within Food Web (s)

4. Degree and Area of Effect within the Environmental Compartments Sea Surface including Microlayer –Neuston, marine birds, marine mammals Pelagic Zone –Marine mammals, invertebrates, fish Sediment –Benthic community, demersal fish and invertebrates, marine mammals and other species Near Shore and Intertidal –Juvenile fish and invertebrates, shellfish, birds, terrestrial animals, anadromous and forage fish

5. Rate of Recovery ParametersSMLPelagicSediment Near Shore & Intertidal Resource Type(s)Number of compartments involved Site ConditionsComplexity relative to weathering Size of the SpillSmall to larger impact on weathering Type of PetroleumLight to more complex crude oils Depth of WaterPotential to affect more compartments Proximity to Shore or ASBS Distance relative to transport and weathering

6. Predicting Dispersion

7. Level of Testing Required to Predict Impact to Receptors Establish a Process: How many tests and how many times Different phyla Food web components Realistic conditions Endpoints Transport, fate, and changing toxicity