2. Office of Arid Lands Studies Mentored by: Barron Orr, Ph.D, Mark Apel, and Erik Glenn in collaboration with:

3. Land Transformation in the West “ Old West” land use values of agriculture, ranching and mining… …are making way for a “New West” land values of… …recreation & leisure, amenity wildlife, and exurbanization.

4. Exurbanization? Exurbanization can be broadly defined as large-scale permanent settlement by urban people in non-metropolitan areas beyond typical suburban commuting distances. Exurban areas are the fastest growing type of residential development in the United States. It is especially dramatic in this region, fundamentally defining the ‘New West’ Atlas of the New West: Portrait of a Changing Region, 1997 (Riebsame & Robb)

5. Percent Change in Resident Population (2000-2005) Nevada led the nation with 20.8%. Arizona was next at 15.8% growth.

6. Where Will the Population Be? From 1982 to 1997, the total amount of developed land in the West grew by 2 million acres, or about half an acre per person, through conversion of agricultural land, forest, and natural open space. Arizona is no exception, more than doubling its population and tripling its employment between 1969 and 2003. Most projections suggest this will continue. Arizona: Developed Acres Source: Center of the American West (http://www.centerwest.org/)

7. The projections illustrate continued suburban and exurban spread, as well as low-density development in resort areas. Mapping Past and Future Development Western Futures http://www.centerwest.org/futures/archive/

8. The projections illustrate continued suburban and exurban spread, as well as low-density development in resort areas. Mapping Past and Future Development Western Futures http://www.centerwest.org/futures/archive/

9. The projections illustrate continued suburban and exurban spread, as well as low-density development in resort areas. Mapping Past and Future Development Western Futures http://www.centerwest.org/futures/archive/

10. The projections illustrate continued suburban and exurban spread, as well as low-density development in resort areas. Mapping Past and Future Development Western Futures http://www.centerwest.org/futures/archive/

11. Exurban Development: Cochise County Cochise County Following Western trend of exurban growth “Wildcat” development in exurban areas... Western Futures http://www.centerwest.org/futures/archive/

12. Wildcat Development? “Wildcat Development” : Unregulated lot splits in un-subdivided areas; current state statutes allow parcels to be split up to five times without undergoing a subdivision process or improvement requirements... Why does “wildcat” development matter... ?

13. Potential Impact on the County Encouragement of sprawl Environmental degradation Loss of access to public lands and open spaces Strain on public services: fire, water... facilities: schools..., infrastructure: roads, utilities... “Inadequacies” passed on to the county, to taxpayers...

14. Fiscal Implications of Wildcat Development Maeveen Beehan, Ph.D John Regan, GISP, CPM Findings: Wildcat development cannot contribute enough to the tax base to make up for its service demands!! http://www.pima.gov/cmo/sdcp/reports/d18/089DIS.PDF

15. What is the impact of wildcat development on Cochise County revenue?

16. Three Canyons Study Area Three Canyons Study Area Vicinity, South of Sierra Vista Cochise County Western Futures http://www.centerwest.org/futures/archive/

17. Study Components Assessed “Total Full Cash Value (TFCV)” The value that is taxed by the County to determine revenue... Lower Assessments = Less tax revenue Higher Assessments = More tax revenue

18. Apples to Apples Comparison of Assessed TFCV of custom homes or single family residences on parcels > 5 acres in formally subdivided and lot split developments Same Home Owners Association (HOA), Codes, Covenants, and Restrictions (CCNRs) = Uniformity

19. Custom Homes 2400-4000 square feet Interior walls Built to owner’s specifications 7-11 rooms Single Family Residences Parcels > 5 acres Use Code: 8714 Formally Subdivided Use Code: 0153 Lot Split Use Code: 0154 Characteristics and “Use Codes”

20. Three Canyons Developments Vista del Oro Wildhorse I Wildhorse II Subdivided Lot Split Valley Vista Fairfield Estates Covey Run Deer Ridge Los Ranchos La Pradera Developments Miscellaneous

21. Use Code Filter Developments Use Code Filtered Parcels Vista del Oro Wildhorse I Wildhorse II Subdivided Covey Run Deer Ridge Los Ranchos La Pradera Lot Split Valley Vista Fairfield Estates Miscellaneous

22. Lowest Assessed Value Developments Lowest Assessed Value Parcels Vista del Oro Wildhorse I Wildhorse II Subdivided Covey Run Deer Ridge Los Ranchos La Pradera Lot Split Valley Vista Fairfield Estates Miscellaneous

23. Highest Assessed Value Highest Assessed Value Parcels Developments Vista del Oro Wildhorse I Wildhorse II Subdivided Covey Run Deer Ridge Los Ranchos La Pradera Lot Split Valley Vista Fairfield Estates Miscellaneous

24. Implications Land use policies in Cochise County, and throughout the West, should account for the impacts of exurban and lot split development; sticking with status quo policies that permit lot split development and uninhibited exurban expansion will result in the continued loss of revenue to the county.