2. It’s Heating Up! -Visualizing the Science of Climate Change Brian Martin and Peter Mahaffy The King’s University College and The King’s Centre for Visualization in Science

3. What do all of these images have in common?

4. In today’s talk… Some of the underlying evidence for global climate change The science of global climate change Global climate change and social and political policy Teaching tools to help bring this to students

5. “View tomorrow as a day that belongs to all of us, or it will not belong to anyone…” UN Decade for Education for Sustainable Development

6. UN Decade for Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014) Improve the quality of life for this and future generations, in a way that respects the planet we live on. To do this we must learn constantly. Challenge individuals, institutions and societies to view tomorrow as a day that belongs to all of us, or it will not belong to anyone.

7. Global Climate Change The atmosphere of our planet What is climate & is it changing? Causes of change Short and long term effects How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

8. Jasper, Alberta Our existence depends on a fragile and thin layer of Nitrogen and Oxygen - atmosphere

9. Different Regions of Earth’s Atmosphere Space Shuttle Discovery 1995. Sunrise over West Indies

10. Global Climate Change The atmosphere of our planet What is climate & is it changing? Causes of change Short and long term effects How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

11. What is ‘Climate’? Climate is ‘average weather’ - and its variability - for a particular region - over a period of time Includes many different elements (Environment Canada – Edmonton)

12. What is ‘climate change’? Climate change is a shift in ‘climate’ relative to a given reference time period It is caused by: Natural factors - Solar variability - Volcanic dust levels - Internal variability - Geological change - Greenhouse gases - Aerosols - Ozone depletion - Land use change Human factors (Environment Canada – Edmonton)

13. Is Climate Changing? Focus First on Mean Global Surface Temperature

14. “Humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a global nuclear war.” World Conference on The Changing Atmosphere: Toronto, June 1988

15. Chemistry in Context

16. WHO – from International Panel on Climate Change

17. Global Climate Change The atmosphere of our planet What is climate & is it changing? Causes of change Short and long term effects How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

18. Greenhouse gases – A New Idea? 1827: Fourier – theorized that greenhouse gases warm the planet 1896: Arrhenius - proposed that changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations due to volcanic eruptions and the combustion of coal can cause climate change 1938: Callendar – first noted that human emissions of CO 2 may add significantly to natural concentrations in the atmosphere 1957: Revelle et al. – first warned that human emissions have started a global scale geophysical experiment and initiated an atmospheric CO 2 concentration monitoring program Environment Canada

19. How is Heat Trapped? Chemistry In Context

20. Wavelength Distribution of Solar Radiation

21. 6000 K 255 K Wavelength Distribution (non-linear scale)

22. Interaction of Electromagnetic Radiation with Molecules

23. Key Players - A Closer Look Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide CFCs and HCFCs Water ! Aerosols Solar activity

24. Carbon Dioxide – Mechanism for Tropospheric Warming ?

25. Perhaps one of the most important graphs in history! Date C0 2 (ppm)

26. Source: OSTP Carbon Dioxide Concentration Trends

27. How CO 2 Correlates with Temperature

29. Photomicrograph of calcareous ooze www.soc.soton.ac.uk/.../photomicrographs/ BNFC-44PB_full.jpg

31. Modeling CO2 in the atmosphere – the 4-Box Model This can be modeled with a set of 4 coupled 1 st order differential equations Highly simplified but qualitatively informative

32. Per capita CO 2 emissions – Global

35. (Closing?) Infrared Windows

36. Methane by Sector - Canada Residence time -12 years Global Warming Potential - 23

38. Clathrates (methane hydrates) - Runaway Greenhouse Effect?

39. “Super” Greenhouse Gases 100 year mass normalized global warming potential of 18,000 Relative to carbon dioxide

40. Terraform Mars with Super Greenhouse Gases? Proceedings of Natl Academy of Sciences, Feb 2001

42. The Bottom Line?

43. Cautious Increasing Confidence The International Panel on Climate Change is the principal source of sound advice on climate change science 1990 1992 1995 1997 2001 First Report Second Report Third Report

44. The IPCC progression in confidence FAR: "Our judgment is that the size of [global] warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability“ SAR: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.“ TAR: "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities."

45. Joint statement by Academies of Science from 17 other countries – May 2001 “The work of the…IPCC represents the consensus of the international science community on climate change science. We recognize IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information…and endorse its method of achieving this consensus.”

46. IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, 2001

47. Global Climate Change The atmosphere of our planet What is climate & is it changing? Causes of change Short and long term effects How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

48. The IPCC Third Assessment Report The IPCC TAR (2001) was a peer-reviewed publication, the result of the work of hundreds of leading climate scientists and modellers. A Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was also released, which –Developed 4 major scenario families of possible future emissions of the major greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, CFCs, HFCs, etc…) Our models use EdGCM – based on a NASA/ GISS Global Climate Model

49. Special Report on Emissions (SRES) Scenarios

50. Global Climate Change The atmosphere of our planet What is climate & is it changing? Causes of change Short and long term effects How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

51. Range of IPCC Model Predictions

53. “If you were unkind enough to put a frog into boiling water, he would jump out if able to do so. If you were to put him into cold water and then gradually heat up the water, you would end up with frog soup.” Sir Crispin Tickell, Ambassador to the UN from Great Britain FROG SOUP?

54. Precautionary Principle? “Maybe we should take the example of the Iroquois Nation, who require its tribal councils to formally consider the impact of their decisions to the seventh generation into the future, or about 150 years. This is about the residence time of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.” Shayne Janzen, King’s student - Brief to Climate Change Central

55. Teaching Resources…

56. Approximately a dozen Flash applets which can be accessed via the www Designed to be embedded in teaching lessons A mixture of demo and activity based Digital Learning Objects (DLO’s) Free access for educational purposes! Funded by NSERC/CRYSTAL and The King’s Centre for Visualization in Science

57. Two examples of Activity-Based DLO’s Investigation of IPCC possible scenarios for climate change Student “life-style” questionnaire - illustrates how choices we make can influence the future climate

58. What’s Next? 1-day spring workshop on the topic of global climate change and how to use the resources developed at KCVS 2-day summer workshop devoted to visualization development and lesson design 1 or 2 summer internships are available to work on this

59. Questions? brian.martin@kingsu.ca URL for The King’s Centre for Visualization in Science: kcvs.ca