1. An Evaluation of Changing Patterns in EU Trade Policy and EU’s Role in the Global Economy Reflections on Relations with Turkey Presentation, IKV/Yeditepe Conference, Istanbul, May 14, 2010 Fredrik Erixon www.ecipe.org Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org

2. Fredrik Erixon’s A Short History of Nearly Everything In General and For Everyone

3. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org My Presentation EU Trade: Some reflections The role of trade for structural change The role of China in EU trade and growth EU and the global economic crisis EU-Turkey relations: some reflections

4. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU trade expansion continues

5. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org Trade Sector Growth (in %-units) 1993-2007 1975-1990 Germany4210 Poland38 N/A Spain26267 United States85

6. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org Share of national export in world export

7. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org Globalization of supply chains

8. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org Structural features of EU trade and growth Trade has a central role in EU growth and structural change –Especially with unflexible labour markets/wages EU trade increasingly global – shifting Eastwards Trade expansions reflects fragmentation of supply chains China plays a remarkably important role in EU trade and structural change

9. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org

12. EU trade: some reflections Services: slow GDP and trade growth, esp of high-yielding services Partially offensive abroad, but defensive at home Service sector growth in EU largely reflects expansion of public sector

13. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org Average No. of employed (Sweden, 100’s)

14. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU trade: some reflections EU is not protectionist and not moving in that direction –Problems remain, but not going in the wrong direction ”Diminishing giant” syndrome

15. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org

16. EU-Turkey relations: some reflections Unbalanced dependency Trade has not expanded as fast as possible

17. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU-Turkey relations: some reflections

18. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU trade balance in Machinery and Transport (Mn EUR)

19. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU trade balance in manufacture goods (mn EUR)

20. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU trade balance in food, drinks, tobacco (mn EUR)

21. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU-Turkey relations: some reflections EU-Turkey trade dependencies are weakening Turkey’s trade profile suggests EU membership, not CU or AA Turkey’s role in EU structural change is weak, but EU’s role in Turkey’s structural change very strong EU input import from Turkey not significant; automotive sector is an exception Low inward FDI from EU; little substitution Agriculture, agriculture, agriculture: however, trade diversion Services: potentially strong contribution from Turkey to structural change and growth