1. © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather Claudia McKnight ATM-Weather Integration Gap Analysis CAASD August 25, 2015 The contents of this material reflect the views of the author and/or the Director of the Center for Advanced Aviation System Development. Neither the Federal Aviation Administration nor the Department of Transportation makes any warranty or guarantee, or promise, expressed or implied, concerning the content or accuracy of the views expressed herein. Approved for Public Release: 15-2707. Distribution Unlimited. © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

2. | 2 || 2 |  Review of ATM-Weather Integration (AWI)  What is the NSIP? Why a Gap Analysis?  What we found Outline © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Graphics: Bing (free to use) Clipart

3. | 3 || 3 |  Raw Weather Building block of AWI – Sensors, Observations, Radar, Forecast Models, etc. The Components of ATM-Weather Integration (AWI) © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.  Impact Adds traffic to the identified constraint/reduced capacity to determine impact (location, location, location) 3 3 1 1  Translation/Constraint Identification Takes raw weather (e.g., radar returns) adds information (e.g., pilot deviation models) and translates it into airspace and airport capacity (permeability and arrival/departure rates) 2 2 2 2  Mitigation Provides ranked strategies/solutions developed based on probabilities and risk vs. gain 4 4 4 4 Photo: NWS Photo: MIT-LL

4. | 4 || 4 |  Level – No Integration  Level – Weather on the Glass  Level – Translation  Level – Traffic Impact  Level – Full Integration The Levels of ATM-Weather Integration (AWI) © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. 2 2 4 4 3 3 0 0 1 1

5. | 5 || 5 | What is the NAS Segment Implementation Plan ( NSIP)? © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. FAA's blueprint for achieving NextGen Organized into Portfolios Operational Improvements (OI’s) Increments Broken into Segments A (2010-2015) B (2016-2020) C (2021-2025)

6. | 6 || 6 | The NSIP and FAA Acquisition © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. A A B B C C FAA Acquisition System A A C C B B Segment 2010- 2015 2016- 2020 2021- 2025 The train has left the station The train is about to depart The train is now boarding ExitEnter

7. | 7 || 7 | AARDS Why a Gap Analysis? © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Weather is leaking out of the system… Weather is hard Budgets are tight Concepts are immature Verification / Validation “Where’s the weather?” C+ A A B B C C ARSI

8. | 8 || 8 |  Weather information provided by NAS Infrastructure Portfolio © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Our Task: ID ATM-Weather Integration Gaps w/in NSIP  Weather needs of all operational NSIP Increments with a dependency on weather Graphic: Bing (free to use) Clipart

9. | 9 || 9 | What’s our Goal? © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Graphic: Bing (free to use) Images

10. | 10 | Common Weather Needs © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. 21 9 9 10 Capacity Demand MitigationTrajectory 22 TRANSLATIONIMPACTSOLUTIONS Graphic: Bing (free to use) Clipart

11. | 11 | Where are the Gaps? © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. 1 1 9 9 10 TRANSLATIONIMPACTSOLUTIONS 6C 7C Opportunities

12. | 12 | Airborne Reroute  105208-21, CATM, Segment Bravo –…Allows a traffic manager to propose trajectory modifications to meet flow constraints for an airborne flight to the appropriate sector controller for action. The trajectory adjustments identify to the controller all the constraints on the requested route of flight and the proposed route.  Opportunity –Level of Integration – description suggests that it will need to identify NAS Constraints and Assess Impact –Planned Level: L0 –Suggested Level: L3  Applicable NI Increments –103121-01 Enhanced Weather Information – Extended (C) –103123-01 Aircraft-to-Severe Weather (C) © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

13. | 13 | 103121-01 (NI) Generation of Enhanced Weather Information – Extended 103123-01 (NI) Aircraft to Severe Weather Notification © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Increments that could provide the basis for Common Weather Functions NAS Constraint/TE Impact ID (NCII/TEII) L3 NAS Constraint/TE Resolution (NCR/TER) L4 Airspace/Airport Capacity Calculator (ACC) L2 Translated Weather 103119-16 (NI) Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) for Arrival/Departure Operations 103123-02 (NI) Net-Enabled Access to NextGen Common Weather Information Source – Enhanced 105302-25 (CATM) Airport Acceptance Rate Decision Support (AARDS)* 104104-02 (SepMgt) Efficient Maneuvers to Assist Aircraft in Avoiding Severe Weather 104104-03 (SepMgt) Rank Ordered Conflict Resolution * Airport only, does not address airspace capacity. 29 10 11

14. | 14 | © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Next Steps  Review Readiness Assessment for key increments  Quantify severity of gaps  Develop and propose feasible solutions Graphics: Bing (free to use) Clipart

15. | 15 | Questions/Discussion © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Graphic: Bing (free to use) Clipart The contents of this material reflect the views of the author and/or the Director of the Center for Advanced Aviation System Development. Neither the Federal Aviation Administration nor the Department of Transportation makes any warranty or guarantee, or promise, expressed or implied, concerning the content or accuracy of the views expressed herein. Approved for Public Release: 15-2707. Distribution Unlimited. © 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.