1. 1 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman M ARIO F. T RIOLA E IGHTH E DITION E LEMENTARY S TATISTICS Section 4-3 Binomial Probability Distributions

2. 2 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman Definitions  Binomial Probability Distribution 1.The experiment must have a fixed number of trials. 2.The trials must be independent. (The outcome of any individual trial doesn’t affect the probabilities in the other trials.) 3.Each trial must have all outcomes classified into two categories. 4.The probabilities must remain constant for each trial.

3. 3 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman Notation for Binomial Probability Distributions n = fixed number of trials x = specific number of successes in n trials p = probability of success in one of n trials q = probability of failure in one of n trials ( q = 1 - p ) P( x )= probability of getting exactly x success among n trials Be sure that x and p both refer to the same category being called a success.

4. 4 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman ( n - x ) ! x !  P(x) = p x q n-x Binomial Probability Formula n !n ! Method 1

5. 5 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman  P(x) = p x q n-x ( n - x ) ! x ! Binomial Probability Formula n !n ! Method 1  P(x) = n C x p x q n-x for calculators with n C r key, where r = x

6. 6 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman This is a binomial experiment where: n = 5 x = 3 p = 0.90 q = 0.10 Example : Find the probability of getting exactly 3 correct responses among 5 different requests from AT&T directory assistance. Assume in general, AT&T is correct 90% of the time.

7. 7 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman This is a binomial experiment where: n = 5 x = 3 p = 0.90 q = 0.10 Using the binomial probability formula to solve: P(3) = 5 C 3 0.9 01 = 0.0.0729 Example : Find the probability of getting exactly 3 correct responses among 5 different requests from AT&T directory assistance. Assume in general, AT&T is correct 90% of the time. 3 2

8. 8 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0.206 0.343 0.267 0.129 0.043 0.010 0.002 0.0+ P( x ) n x 15 Table A-1 For n = 15 and p = 0.10

9. 9 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0.206 0.343 0.267 0.129 0.043 0.010 0.002 0.0+ P( x ) n x 15 Table A-1 For n = 15 and p = 0.10

10. 10 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0.206 0.343 0.267 0.129 0.043 0.010 0.002 0.0+ P( x ) n x 15 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0.206 0.343 0.267 0.129 0.043 0.010 0.002 0.000 P( x ) x Table A-1 Binomial Probability Distribution For n = 15 and p = 0.10

11. 11 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman Example: Using Table A-1 for n = 5 and p = 0.90, find the following: a) The probability of exactly 3 successes b) The probability of at least 3 successes a) P(3) = 0.073 b) P(at least 3) = P(3 or 4 or 5) = P(3) or P(4) or P(5) = 0.073 + 0.328 + 0.590 = 0.991

12. 12 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman P(x) = p x q n-x n !n ! ( n - x ) ! x ! Number of outcomes with exactly x successes among n trials Binomial Probability Formula

13. 13 Chapter 4. Section 4-3. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman P(x) = p x q n-x n !n ! ( n - x ) ! x ! Number of outcomes with exactly x successes among n trials Probability of x successes among n trials for any one particular order Binomial Probability Formula