1. Human Population Dynamics Chapter 8

2. AP College Board Objectives (10 – 15%)
1. Human Population dynamics – historical population sizes; distribution; fertility rates; growth rates and doubling times; demographic transition; age-structure diagrams
2. Population size – Strategies for sustainability;
cases studies; national policies
3. Impacts of population growth – hunger;
disease; economic effects; resource use;
habitat destruction
Although several species may share a habitat they each have their own niche. A niche is a very narrow range where a species fits within a habitat.

3. Population Basics
Population: all the individuals of a species that live together in an area
Density: measurement of population per unit area or unit volume
Formula: Dp= N
Population Density = # of individuals ÷ unit of space
Although several species may share a habitat they each have their own niche. A niche is a very narrow range where a species fits within a habitat.

4. Factors that Affect Density
Density-independent factors- Abiotic factors in the environment that affect populations regardless of their density
  Ex. temperature
storms
habitat destruction
drought

5. Factors that Affect Density
Density-dependent factors- Biotic factors in the environment that have an increasing effect as population size increases
  Ex. disease
competition
parasites

6. Population Density and Distribution

8. How is Population Data Gathered?
Natural Increase Immigration and Emigration
Births minus Deaths
1,345 – 645= 700
Age structure Diagrams
Demography: A social science that applies the principles of population ecology to the study of statistical change in human populations

9. Population Pop Quiz
_quiz_0.pdf

10. Population Basics Define the following vocabulary
a. Total fertility rate
b. Replacement level fertility
c. Infant mortality rate
d. Doubling time
e. Mortality
f. Natality
g. Life expectancy
h. Immigration
i. emigration

11. Factors That Affect Future Population Growth
Immigration + + -
Population
Mortality
Natality -
Emigration

12. Human Population Growth http://www. populationconnection
Hyperlink to World Population Video

13. Human Population Growth

14. Our World at 7 Billion
To travel 7 billion miles in your car you’d need to make 29, 000 trips to the Moon!
Global population grows by over 80 million people each year.
We add 2.6 people to the planet every second
Population growth momentum: The continued growth of a population after fertility rates have declined, as a result of a population's young age structure

15. How Did We Get to 7 Billion So Fast???

16. Almost 1 in 5 people in the world are Chinese…More than 1 of every 6 lives in India.
FIGURE 8.7

17. FIGURE 8.15

18. TABLE 8.2

19. Predicting world Population Growth
FIGURE 8.8

20. Is Population Growth a Problem?
FIGURE 8.5

21. Human Population Growth
Thomas Malthus
British economist ( )
Argued that unless population growth were controlled by laws or other social strictures the number of people would eventually out grow the available food supply.

22. An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)
“If society did not limit births then rising death rates would reduce the population through war, disease, and starvation.”

23. Human Population Growth
Paul Ehrlich
Biologist at Stanford University
“neo-Malthusians”
The Population Bomb (1968)
Predicted that population growth would unleash famine and conflict that would consume civilization by the end of the 20th century
FIGURE 8.5b

24. FIGURE 8.6

25. Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren* (1974)
IPAT Model
Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren* (1974)
I = P x A x T
Increased Population = more individuals take up space, use resources and generate waste.
Increased Affluence = greater per capita resource consumptions that accompanies enhance wealth.
Technology= exploitation of minerals, fossil fuels, old-growth forest and fisheries BUT ….
Technology= reduces smokestack emissions, harnesses renewable energy, improves manufacturing efficiency
UNNUMBERED FIGURE PG 196
*Holdren is a Harvard University environmental scientist. He is also President Obama’s science advisor;

26. Mapping Our Population’s
Environmental Impact
NPP = the net amount of energy stored in plant matter as a result of photosynthesis.
Overuse of NPP diminishes resources for other species; alters habitats, communities, and ecosystems; and threatens our future ability to derive ecosystem services.
Read The Science behind the Story on pages
How did scientist conduct the study?
What data did the scientist collect?
What were the results of their study?
What can scientist conclude from the study?

27. What is Cultural Carrying Capacity?
Are you willing to have less space in which to live?
Less food to eat --- Less material wealth?

28. Growth Rate
What is the formula for finding natural increase (growth rate)?
r = b – d
r = 26/ /1000
r = – = 0.021
0.021 X 100 = 2.1% per year
OR (the easy way)
r = 26/10 - 5/10
r = = 2.1
or 2.1% per year

29. Doubling Time
Rule of 70 – determines the number of years it will take a country’s population to double.
Doubling time = 70/%growth rate
Growth rate = 70/doubling time
Let’s practice:
A country’s growth rate is 1.5%. How many years will it take that country’s population to double?
70/1.5 = 46.7 years

30. Calculate the annual growth rate and the doubling time for the following countries:
Country CBR CDR % increase Doubling time (yrs) Australia 15 7 Bangladesh United States 13 8 Botswana 36 9 Canada 14 7 Germany Haiti India Russia 11 12

31. Calculate the annual growth rate and the doubling time for the following countries:
Country CBR CDR % increase Doubling time (yrs) Australia Bangladesh United States Botswana Canada Germany Haiti India Russia

32. Demographic Facts of Life
Grim Reaper’s Revenge
As devastating as wars, natural disasters, accidents, diseases, etc. are, they often have little impact on overall population growth worldwide.
We are currently adding 228,000 people to the planet
each day = to 1 Hong Kong a month!. At
today’s present rate of growth, let’s
determine how many days it would take
to replace those lost.

33. How do population pyramids help us learn about population?

34. POST-REPRODUCTIVE
REPRODUCTIVE
PRE-REPRODUCTIVE

35. Population in millions
Population pyramids are used to show information about the age and gender of people in a specific country.
Male
Female
There is also a high Death Rate.
In this country there is a high Birth Rate
Population in millions
This population pyramid is typical of countries in poorer parts of the world (LEDCs.)

36. In some LEDCs the government is encouraging couples to have smaller families. This means the birth rate has fallen.

37. Population in millions
Male
Female
Population in millions
The largest category of people were born about 40 years ago.
In this country the number of people in each age group is about the same.
In this country there is a low Birth Rate and a low Death Rate.
This population pyramid is typical of countries in the richer parts of the world (MEDCs.)

38. Population in millions
Male
Female
Population in millions
In the future the elderly people will make up the largest section of the population in this country.
In this country the birth rate is decreasing.
This is happening more and more in many of the world’s richer countries.

39. Population in thousands
Male
Female
Population in thousands
This country has a large number of temporary workers. These are people who migrate here especially to find a job.

40. Population pyramid for Mozambique.
Population pyramid for Iceland.

41. What happens next?

43. What is going to happen to Japan’s population in the future?
Why does this matter?

44. FIGURE 8.13

45. ?

46. ?

47. ?

48. You decide!

50. What is the Demographic Transition?
The shift from high to low mortality and fertility
A sign of socio-economic progress?
The shift from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility is known as the “demographic transition.”
It is based on the experience of Western Europe, in particular England and Wales.
This model was first described by the American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929.
In 1945, Frank W. Notestein further developed this theory and suggested that there was a relationship between population change and industrialization. A debate continues questioning if population growth must decline for economic development or if economic progress (or industrialization) leads to slower population growth.
In light of this debate, the completion of the demographic transition has come to be associated with socioeconomic progress.
[FYI – The factors that drive childbearing trends—such as the economy, education, gender relations, and access to family planning—are numerous and complex. These same factors are signs of socioeconomic development.]

51. Demographic Transition
Read pages
What is the definition of demographic transition?
Identify the characteristics of each stage.
Stage Description
First Stage – Pre Industrial
Second Stage -- Transitional
Third Stage -- Industrial
Fourth Stage – Post Industrial