2. 200 300 400 500 100 200 300 400 500 100 200 300 400 500 100 200 300 400 500 100 200 300 400 500 100 Value Models Modeling uncertainty Root Causes Decision Tree Catch All

3. Value Models for 100 Points Double Anchored Estimation Procedure

4. What is the method for estimating single attribute value functions?

5. Value Models for 200 It does not allow less severe conditions to cancel out the influence of more severe conditions

6. Why should Multiplicative Multi- Attribute value model be used to measure severity of illness?

7. Value Models for 300 Scenario/CaseScenario/Case Attribute 1Attribute 1 Attribute 2Attribute 2 Attribute 3Attribute 3 1 BestBest BestBest BestBest 2 BestBest BestBest WorstWorst 3 BestBest WorstWorst BestBest 4 BestBest WorstWorst WorstWorst 5 WorstWorst BestBest BestBest 6 WorstWorst BestBest WorstWorst 7 WorstWorst WorstWorst BestBest 8 WorstWorst WorstWorst WorstWorst Scenario/CaseScenario/Case Attribute 1Attribute 1 Attribute 2Attribute 2 Attribute 3Attribute 3 1 BestBest BestBest BestBest 2 BestBest BestBest WorstWorst 3 BestBest WorstWorst BestBest 4 BestBest WorstWorst WorstWorst 5 WorstWorst BestBest BestBest 6 WorstWorst BestBest WorstWorst 7 WorstWorst WorstWorst BestBest 8 WorstWorst WorstWorst WorstWorst

8. What is orthogonal design for three attributes?

9. Value Models for 400 In a three attribute Additive Multi-Attribute Value model, what is the relative importance of age if the expert believes age is 3 times more important than gender and income is 4 times more important than age?

10. Relative Importance of Age = 30 / (10+30+120) = 0.19

11. Value Models for 500 What are the standardized single attribute values for the attribute income if low income was assessed at 20, medium income at 40 and high income at 80.

12. Low = 0, Medium = (40-20) / (80-20) = 0.33 High = 100

13. Modeling Uncertainty for 100

14. How can conditional probability be measured as a reduction in sample space?

15. Modeling Uncertainty for 200 What is marginal probability of being in probation? What is conditional probability of being in treatment if already in probation? Probation day Not a probation dayTotal Treatment day 0.510.390.90 Not a treatment day 0.05 0.10 Total0.560.441.00

16. p( treatment ) = 0.56 p( treatment | probation) = 0.51/0.56 = 0.91

17. Modeling Uncertainty for 300 Number of people more than 65 years old among hospitalized patients

18. What is the likelihood associated with being more than 65 years old among hospitalized patients?

19. Modeling Uncertainty for 400 Among the insured, is age >65 conditionally independent of gender?

20. p( Age>65 ) = 4/8 p (Age>65 | Insured) = 2/3 Not conditionally independent

21. Modeling Uncertainty for 500 The formula for the drawing is that posterior odds is equivalent to:

22. Write the mathematical formula for predicting the probability of joining the HMO

23. Root Causes for 100

24. What are two situations that imply conditional independence in a causal model?

25. Root Causes for 200 Understaffing, poor training, patient providing wrong information but not following markings, not fatigued nurse and not marking the patient wrong.

26. What are conditionally independent causes of wrong side surgery?

27. Root Causes for 300 Prevalence of the causes among sentinel events are compared to known rates

28. How do you check accuracy of root cause model using reverse predictions?

29. Root Causes for 400 Is the model accurate if poor training was noted in 1 out of 8 sentinel events?

30. No. Observed prevalence of poor training among sentinel events is 1/8=0.12 but assumed is 0.219

31. Root Causes for 500 What is wrong in the biweekly project done by this student?

32. Last slide says that the model is accurate but no reverse prediction or test of conditional independence was done. Assuming accuracy at this point is jump of faith.

33. Decision Tree for 100

34. What does a decision node look like?

35. Decision Trees for 200 What is the expected cost of joining the PPO if mental health services are no longer covered by the employer?

36. Expected cost =.37*(.83*.98*.85*1085 +.46*.94*4796/1.3) = 867.79

37. Decision Trees for 300 At what breakeven probability does the conclusion of joining the HMO and continuing as is change? Join HMO Continue as is Lose other customers No change in customers Value010040 Daily Double

38. P = 40/100 =.4

39. Decision Trees for 400 What will happen to the expected length of stay if doctor Jones takes care of Dr Smith’s patients? Assume that both doctors patients stay the same amount of time, 5 days for MI, 7 days for CHF and 15 days for both Probability of patients with different conditions MI onlyCHF only CHF given MI Dr Jones0.50.70.1 Dr Smith0.30.50.9

40. Smith’s LOS =.3*.9*15 +.3*.1*5 +.7*.5*7 = 6.65 days Jones’ LOS for Smith’s patients =.5*.1*15+.5*.9*5 +.5*.7*7 = 5.45 days Probability of patients with different conditions MI onlyCHF only CHF given MI Dr Jones0.50.70.1 Dr Smith0.30.50.9

41. Decision Tree for 500 What is the preferred course of action?.3.1.5

42. Do nothing is preferred.3.1.5 law suit prob Settle out of court Prob of winning EV of court decisionOverall EV Assign nurse0.11300000.5555000 0.93000040000 Do nothing0.31000000.5540000 0.7030000

43. Catch All for 100 Because you know what data are needed and for what purpose and what data should not be collected

44. What is the primary reasons why drafting the final report "at the start" speeds up the analysis?

45. Catch All for 200 What is the a Pareto Optimal resolution of this conflict?

46. A.Family planning should be fundamental part of every service B.Strengthening family should be built into all components C.No parental notification D.Social work supervision

47. Catch All for 300 1.Silent idea generations 2.Round-robin sharing of ideas 3.Feedback to the group 4.Explanatory group discussion 5.Individual re-assessment, and 6.Mathematical aggregation of revised judgments

48. What are the steps in Nominal group process?

49. Catch All for 400 In predicting success of EHR implementation, ask two questions to determine the likelihood ratio associated with participation in planning.

50. Of 100 EHR projects that have succeeded how many had participation of the clinical staff during planning phase? Of 100 EHR projects that have failed, how many had participation of the clinical staff during the planning phase?

51. Catch All for 500 How would you assess the combined likelihood ratios associated with two causes of medication error: poor handwriting and similar bottles Note causes are not conditionally independent

52. Out of 100 medication errors, how many times there is poor handwriting and similar medication bottles? Out of 100 times of no medication error, how many times there is poor handwriting and similar medication bottles? Repeat for all combinations of handwriting and similarity of bottles