1. Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from space...” Edgar Zapata NASA Kennedy Space Center Operations Analysis, Modeling & Simulation 1

2. Contents NASA Context NASA Context - Transportation vs. Exploration What are Models & Simulations? Example Description of a Model Example Description of a Simulation Models & Simulations as Software Tools Visualizing The Mathematical – Critical Preparation in an Education Path for M&S In Closing 2

3. NASA Context The mosaic is testament to an assortment of NASA initiatives to define a direction for NASA in the post-Shuttle era. X-vehicle demonstrators Technology programs Research & development Large scale programs As all of the above Most recently… 3 7/15/11 KSC O&C Orion Test Article

4. NASA Context - Transportation vs. Exploration A similar distinction can be- Access to low-Earth-orbit vs. beyond-Earth-orbit Systems to get to space vs. in-space systems Capability vs. goals 4 (items shown not to scale)

5. What are Models & Simulations? Representations (of reality?) Inputs become outputs Decompositions that we put back together again in new and interesting ways (“what if”) Analytical simplifications Mathematical constructs Visualizations, pictures of what we plan Like any perception, subject to error 5 https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Brain_in_a_vat “According to such stories, the computer would then be simulating reality (including appropriate responses to the brain's own output) and the person with the "disembodied" brain would continue to have perfectly normal conscious experiences without these being related to objects or events in the real world.” -Wikipedia

6. Example Description of a Model Generic vanilla-flavor description of a model for predicting/estimating costs of a future spaceflight system (this is not the model itself) Created for handling a limited number of inputs in endless combinations or “what-if’s” 6 Item R&D $ Item NREC $ New item Z $ Team B NREC $ Items A, B, C etc Team B Unit $ Items A, B, C etc Item X NREC $ Item X Unit $ Other LV NREC $ Other LV Per Launch $ Team 1 Estimate Team 2 Estimate LV Info Team 3 Estimates NREC Unit Excludes: PI, MO/GO, Test Flight LVs Includes: Test Flight H- ware, P I/O Excludes: PI, MO/GO, Test Flight LVs Includes: Test Flight H- ware, P I/O Team Z Estimate LV Info Ø Ø Program Integration Mission/Flight Ops Project Insight/Oversight Ground/Launch Ops Relation Result Exclude Elements D, J PSV/LV and Other LV = Fixed $ ALTERNATE MATH Relation Fixed <All (except R&D) Exclude Elements C, M and F MO/GO $ ALTERNATE RESULTS PI $ ALTERNATE WHAT-IF Path 1 P I/O Plus P I/O Path 2 MO/GO PI Path 1 Path 2 MO/GO Plus Path 1 MO/GO Path 2 P I/O Path 1 PI Path 2 PI Scale – apx. Past? NO YES PI Path 2

7. Example Description of a Simulation A description of a simulation for predicting/estimating the way in which multiple processes combine to effect the number of launches per year that a processing capability can achieve Used in “what-if’s” – where a user explores how changes in inputs alter outputs, reflecting on the real world. 7 Shuttle Processing Simulation, Represented as a Diagram, by Grant Cates Ph.D, and Maryin Steele, Ph.D, circa 2004 http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/Shuttle-Ops_main.htm

8. Models & Simulations as Software Tools Any M&S description, or layout, turned into math, and the logic of if’s and then’s, and made flexible to handle the exploration of combinations of inputs not known early on, can get very complex, very fast. 8 A NASA Budget Model (some features blocked / not shown) http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/ezNASA_Model.htm

9. Models & Simulations as Software Tools Example Simulation – data aspect. The schematic or idea translated into math, data-bases, logic and structure 9 From the NASA KSC Earth-to-Orbit Supply Chain Simulation Project http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/E2O_supply_chain_main.htm

10. Visualizing Data about what we want to build in the future goes in many directions- To actually visualize the things using 3D virtual models As shown previously - to understand the processes, timing and inter-actions associated with the things and their planned facilities – simulation As shown previously - to analyze the effort the things will require, the labor, processes, practices, costs and resources to prepare, launch and fly these launchers and spacecraft 10 From the Delmia Corp. flyer about the use of 3D Visualization at KSC http://www.3ds.com/fileadmin/COMPANY/CUSTOMER-STORIES/PDF/NASA-flyer-Eng-lowres.pdf

11. The Mathematical – Critical Preparation in an Education Path for M&S You can only get there from here – from the math & science that is… 11 Cross Agency Support (also includes Center Management & Operations) Constellation (to early 2011) Shuttle (to ~mid 2011) Science Launches (prices=costs) Falcon 9’s & Taurus 2’s to ISS, Cargo TBD Launch Vehicle $ to deliver Crew to ISS Launch Services Program That which remains: Including “Space Flight Support” at JSC and KSC. Billions ezNASA_Budget_Model Ogive Panel 1Ogive Panel 3C-Channel Panel 2C-Channel Panel 4 Ideally-all such models, simulations, data and their tools will speak to each other more fully as these capabilities mature. There are many challenges ahead in the world of modeling & simulation.

12. In Closing “How can it be that mathematics, being after all a product of human thought independent of experience, is so admirably adapted to the objects of reality?” - Albert Einstein 12 More information about some KSC models & simulations at: http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/model s_main.htm http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/simula tions_main.htm http://www.industryweek.com/articles/nasas_ken nedy_space_center_visualizing_the_possibilities_2 3701.aspx edgar.zapata-1@nasa.gov