1. Marvin R. Clark Managing Principal Chief Economist and Strategist June 30, 2009 Scottsdale, Arizona Monsoon Wealth Management

2. Born: May 4, 1979 10 Downing Street, London, SW1A 2AA

3. R.I.P. Born: August 27, 1859 Died: September 17, 2008

5.  Great Society Programs 1964-1968  Vietnam War 1959-1975  Suspending the gold standard 1971  The 1 st oil embargo 1973  Inexperienced workforce 1972-1982  Antiquated manufacturing facilities  The 2 nd oil embargo 1979  Excessive money supply growth

6. Falling oil prices 1981-2000 Falling interest rates 1981-2008 Deregulation Cheap domestic labor 1986-2007 The information and digital age Personal computer 1981 NAFTA Globalization The Internet Cheap Capital

7. Cowboy Capitalism Leverage Exotic investment products Lax supervision Deficit spending Derivatives Lowered underwriting standards O.P.M. (other peoples’ money) No Fear

8. Dot.com stocks Real Estate Blue chip stocks

9. 20th century debt; 21 st century cash flow Tapped out consumers Gasoline shock Overvalued real estate Toxic assets Accelerating wealth destruction Saving banks; destroying banking TARP

10. An L shaped recovery Multi-year credit contraction Re-regulation Low, low growth Higher taxes Later on, inflation China’s driving A reduced standard of living in America

14. Prepare for a real “black swan” Do not worship false green shoots Buy gold and TIPS soon Avoid stocks and bonds now Buy real estate for income only Reassess the future Don’t believe Wall Street most days