2. “Persons who pretend to predict the future shall be considered disorderly and will be liable to a fine of $300 or 3 months in jail.” Criminal Code of New York c.1900

3. Forecasting & Scenario Planning Insight SIG November 2010

4. Panel Members Julian Young RSPB Jon Kelly Wood for Trees Kirsty NealBreakthrough Breast Cancer Bob FrancisCancer Research UK

5. Role of Insight Teams Grant funding Legacies Regular giving, membership Gift Aid Trading Major Gifts Community Fundraising Ad hoc: appeals, gaming etc

6. Forecasting Techniques Macro Market sizing External inputs Micro Statistical Analysis Modelling

7. Statistical Analysis Descriptive Statistics Time series analysis Regression/Correlation Breakeven analysis Payback and other ROI techniques

8. Modelling Sales force composite Delphi/Executive Panels PAM - probability assessment method PERT - programme evaluation and review techniques

9. Market Sizing Sales Forecast = Market Size X Market Share

10. External Inputs Legacies –Legacy Foresight TGI Economic forecasts

11. Seminar Questions First: a couple of hands up questions.

12. Seminar Questions Is your team/dept: A.Responsible for generating forecasts? or B.Give help to business areas? or C.Not involved in forecasting?

13. Seminar Questions Cont Role of Insight Teams Grant funding Legacies Regular giving, membership Gift Aid Trading Major Gifts Community Fundraising Ad hoc: appeals, gaming etc

14. Seminar Questions Cont What’s the difference between a forecast and a budget? A target? Are we and our colleagues clear?

15. Seminar Questions Cont What do our colleagues expect in terms of accuracy of forecasts? And how do we manage expectations? What data do we need to be able to forecast accurately?

16. Seminar Questions Cont What techniques have you found useful? How can technology help? Stats, modelling.

17. Seminar Questions Cont What can/should the SIG do to further forecasting and modelling? What are your training needs?