1. 300 Years of NEP Caused By Land Use, CO 2 Fertilization and Climate Change According to LM3 Shevliakova, Malyshev, Hurtt and Pacala

2. Canopy and canopy air Soil/snow Atmosphere Photosynthesis Plant and soil respiration Energy and moisture balance Carbon uptake and release t~ 30 min fine roots Energy, water and carbon exchange leaves sapwood labile wood Carbon allocation and growth, t ~ 1 day Phenology, t~ 1 month Mortality, natural and fire t ~ 1 year Biogeography, t ~ 1 year { Land-use management, t ~ 1 year Climate statistics Carbon gain Plant type LAI, height, roots Land-use transitions Vegetation dynamics Dynamic Land Model LM3V

3. Land use characterization

4. climate 1951-1970 Experimental Design spin-up (300 y) 1700 no land-use land-use land-use, no secondary CO 2 historical climate “recycled” 1951-1970 no land-use CO 2 286 ppm CO 2 historical CO 2 286 ppm climate 1951-1970 1971-2000

5. Global NEP no land useland use CO2=286 ppm CO 2 =historic 1950-1969 Recycled Climate 1970-1999 True Climate CO 2 =286 ppm CO 2 =historic carbon, Gt Historic CO 2 No Secondary Historic CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use CO 2 Fertilization = 2 GtC / y

6. Global NEP no land useland use CO2=286 ppm CO 2 =historic 1950-1969 Recycled Climate 1970-1999 True Climate CO 2 =286 ppm CO 2 =historic carbon, Gt ENSO Matters Historic CO 2 No Secondary Historic CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use

7. Zonal distribution (1980-1999 ave.) Recycled climate (1950-1969) True climate (1970-1999) Model Stable With No Perturbation Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use

8. Zonal distribution (1980-1999 ave.) Recycled climate (1950-1969) True climate (1970-1999) Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use Tropical Sources Caused By Harvest and Climate

9. Zonal distribution (1980-1999 ave.) Recycled climate (1950-1969) True climate (1970-1999) Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use Tropical and Northern Sinks Caused By Climate and CO 2

10. Zonal distribution (1980-1999 ave.) Recycled climate (1950-1969) True climate (1970-1999) Temperate Sink Sharpened by Land Use Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use

11. Decadal zonal averages “80s” “90s” Recycled climate True climate Tropical Dipole Flips Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use

12. Decadal zonal averages “80s” “90s” Recycled climate True climate Temperate Sink Stable Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use

13. No land use East US Regrowth

14. Land use East US Regrowth

15. No land use Amazonian Deforestation

16. Land use Amazonian Deforestation

17. Land use Africa Drying True Climate Recycled Climate

18. Wood Products Matter Wood Products Sink NEP

19. Message to modelers who want to diagnose the cause of the terrestrial sink: Estimate dependencies on climate with forest inventory, eddy covariance and atmospheric trace gas measurements. Add land use with secondary harvest to solve the initial condition problem. Track agricultural and wood products.