1. Boston, 3 December, 2010 IndEcol Expert Meeting “Critical Materials for a Clean Energy Future” What can Material Flow Analysis (MFA) contribute to the critical minerals discussion? Daniel B. Müller

2. Motivation Risk for supply chain disruptions and impacts are poorly understood. Difficulty to identify most effective interventions for specific elements (e.g., trade policy, substitution, recycling/reuse) Problem shifts are possible / likely, but poorly understood Hypothesis System approach based on MFA can support the evaluation of critical materials policies  systems defined in space and time (not functional units)

3. Research opportunities for MFA 1.Characterize critical elements cycles - links between cycles of different materials - links between material cycles and energy and emissions - links between cycles of different countries (trade) 2.Analyze dynamics of cycles - drivers (lifestyle, penetration of new technologies, trade…) - roles of stocks - sensitivities 3.Develop scenarios - anticipate demand - anticipate supply (limits) - identify problem shifts (to other materials, energy, emissions) - test impacts of supply disruptions - evaluate strategies (e.g., interventions in different places of chain) - risk assessment  Data challenge!

4. others CD VN US PT TH AU RU BO ID PE MY BR CN 0 10002000 3000 thousand metric tons 020406080100120 Reserves Reserve Base Mine Production 2005 thousand metric tons World Tin Reserves and Mine Production, 2005 Static lifetime [years] RRB 15 30 44 203 500 600 17 24 10 11 26 53 100 117 181 375 262 308 140 160 Inf inf ? 150 167 22 39 Data source: USGS 2006

5. Tin cycle USA, 2000 [Gg] Literature Mass balance Own calculations / estimations Mining Refining Detinning Alloying TinplateMan cans Man oth EOL Cans Lithosph. 20 / 40 Tailings ? Gvt Stockp 60 Ore Ref. Tin Landfills 1500 Use cans Use oth. EOL Oth Tinplate Alloys Cans Others Obs. cans Obs. others Steel Ind Steel 12 00 7.3 329 4.3 4.1 8.9 4 100 0 38 8.8 0 0 0.2 6.6 15.5 8.28.4 7.8 7.9 0.6 1.2 1.4 58 ? ? 0.2 ? 0.1 5 58 4954 40 10 500 10.6 43 Tinplate scrap Alloy scrap

6. What could be done if tin supply was critical? Literature Mass balance Own calculations / estimations Mining Refining Detinning Alloying TinplateMan cans Man oth EOL Cans Lithosph. 20 / 40 Tailings ? Gvt Stockp 60 Ore Ref. Tin Landfills 1500 Use cans Use oth. EOL Oth Tinplate Alloys Cans Others Obs. cans Obs. others Steel Ind Steel 12 00 7.3 329 4.3 4.1 8.9 4 100 0 38 8.8 0 0 0.2 6.6 15.5 8.28.4 7.8 7.9 0.6 1.2 1.4 58 ? ? 0.2 ? 0.1 5 58 4954 40 10 500 10.6 43 Tinplate scrap Alloy scrap

7. Literature Mass balance Own calculations / estimations Mining Refining Detinning Alloying TinplateMan cans Man oth EOL Cans Lithosph. 20 / 40 Tailings ? Gvt Stockp 60 Ore Ref. Tin Landfills 1500 Use cans Use oth. EOL Oth Tinplate Alloys Cans Others Obs. cans Obs. others Steel Ind Steel 12 00 7.3 329 4.3 4.1 8.9 4 100 0 38 8.8 0 0 0.2 6.6 15.5 8.28.4 7.8 7.9 0.6 1.2 1.4 58 ? ? 0.2 ? 0.1 5 58 4954 40 10 500 10.6 43 Tinplate scrap Alloy scrap Option 1: Release industry and government stockpiles What could be done if tin supply was critical?

8. Literature Mass balance Own calculations / estimations Mining Refining Detinning Alloying TinplateMan cans Man oth EOL Cans Lithosph. 20 / 40 Tailings ? Gvt Stockp 60 Ore Ref. Tin Landfills 1500 Use cans Use oth. EOL Oth Tinplate Alloys Cans Others Obs. cans Obs. others Steel Ind Steel 12 00 7.3 329 4.3 4.1 8.9 4 100 0 38 8.8 0 0 0.2 6.6 15.5 8.28.4 7.8 7.9 0.6 1.2 1.4 58 ? ? 0.2 ? 0.1 5 58 4954 40 10 500 10.6 43 Tinplate scrap Alloy scrap Option 2: Utilize exported scrap domestically What could be done if tin supply was critical?

9. Literature Mass balance Own calculations / estimations Mining Refining Detinning Alloying TinplateMan cans Man oth EOL Cans Lithosph. 20 / 40 Tailings ? Gvt Stockp 60 Ore Ref. Tin Landfills 1500 Use cans Use oth. EOL Oth Tinplate Alloys Cans Others Obs. cans Obs. others Steel Ind Steel 12 00 7.3 329 4.3 4.1 8.9 4 100 0 38 8.8 0 0 0.2 6.6 15.5 8.28.4 7.8 7.9 0.6 1.2 1.4 58 ? ? 0.2 ? 0.1 5 58 4954 40 10 500 10.6 43 Tinplate scrap Alloy scrap Option 3: Element-specific recycling What could be done if tin supply was critical?

10. Literature Mass balance Own calculations / estimations Mining Refining Detinning Alloying TinplateMan cans Man oth EOL Cans Lithosph. 20 / 40 Tailings ? Gvt Stockp 60 Ore Ref. Tin Landfills 1500 Use cans Use oth. EOL Oth Tinplate Alloys Cans Others Obs. cans Obs. others Steel Ind Steel 12 00 7.3 329 4.3 4.1 8.9 4 100 0 38 8.8 0 0 0.2 6.6 15.5 8.28.4 7.8 7.9 0.6 1.2 1.4 58 ? ? 0.2 ? 0.1 5 58 4954 40 10 500 10.6 43 Tinplate scrap Alloy scrap Option 4: End-of-life recovery What could be done if tin supply was critical?

11. Literature Mass balance Own calculations / estimations Mining Refining Detinning Alloying TinplateMan cans Man oth EOL Cans Lithosph. 20 / 40 Tailings ? Gvt Stockp 60 Ore Ref. Tin Landfills 1500 Use cans Use oth. EOL Oth Tinplate Alloys Cans Others Obs. cans Obs. others Steel Ind Steel 12 00 7.3 329 4.3 4.1 8.9 4 100 0 38 8.8 0 0 0.2 6.6 15.5 8.28.4 7.8 7.9 0.6 1.2 1.4 58 ? ? 0.2 ? 0.1 5 58 4954 40 10 500 10.6 43 Tinplate scrap Alloy scrap Option 5: Mining landfills What could be done if tin supply was critical?

12. Uses of indium Thin films: transparent and conductive coatings of indium tin oxide (ITO) for - liquid crystal displays (50% of In use!) - flat panel displays - touch screens - photovoltaic cells - smart windows - … Example by-product element: indium (demand)  Demand is rising sharply  Recycling challenge: Very small quantities per unit, but many units

13. PGM  supply of many “technology metals” is price-inelastic: Increased demand can only be met by primary production if demand for major metal rises accordingly Short term demand surges lead to price peaks (see Ir, Ru, In) Effective recycling important for supply security Metal families – most precious & special metals are coupled to major metals production Source: Ch. Hagelueken (Umicore)

14. Example: Indium linkages Indium supply needs to be studies by analyzing zinc cycle  Indium cannot be extracted from a pool, but from a flow (zinc slag/dust)  Similar to scrap! But with few substitutes. Zn mining Zn prod In products manufact. In pr. use In EOL mgt. In refining Landfills Zn Slag / dust In loss in plating of LCDs: 75% Zn products manufact. Zn pr. use Zn EOL mgt. EAF Slag Fe mining Steel prod manufact. Steel use Steel EOL mgt. Steel prod.

15. Global Bauxite Production, 2007 Data Source: USGS, 2009 Graph: Liu, 2009

16. Global aluminium production chain over time Bauxite a.1930 b.1970 c.2007 b.1970 c.2007 Alumina c.2007 b.1971 a.1930 Aluminium Source: Liu 2010

17. Global trade of Al containing products along value chain, 2006 countries ranked by per-capita GDP Norway USA Jamaica Guinea China Johansen 2010

18. Data challenge - Data availability for critical materials is critical! - Data provided by governments are usually not integrated into a systems context.  limited potential to inform policies and own measurement programs  a growing number of universities spend a lot of time compiling data, with different degrees of transparency – waste of brain power and money  small incentives for data sharing…  Coordinated effort needed! Prod ManufUseEOLM LithospLandfills, other repositories Geological Surveys UN Statistics: harmonized… National accounts