1. Strategic Approaches to Integrated Management of Land, Water and Livelihoods along an Aridity Gradient: Case of Central Tunisia (S2) WLI REGIONAL KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE WORKSHOP ON DECISION-SUPPORT TOOLS AND MODELS 23-27 SEPTEMBER, 2013, JERBA, TUNISIA

2. 1. WLI objective Please insert a picture that represents your work Goal : Improve the livelihoods of communities in areas where droughts and climate change risks are prevalent. Relation to national policies and community needs : 1. Increasing the income per capita and reducing poverty 2. Insuring a rational use of natural resources 3. reducing the effects of droughts and adaptation to CC

3. lower semi arid 221 mm (1974-2001) 2 – 40 0 C ETP : Ab. 1500 mm (hot and dry wind) Water source : 1 well 2. Study site 317 households – 2241 hab. (2002) Livestock : 14 sheeps / household S Agriculture : 2914 ha : cereals (56%), Arboriculture (17%), irrigated area (4%), cactus and pasture (23%) Net income : 4245 TD /year (2000), only 71% from agriculture S2 (Centre): Sidi Bouzid - Zoghmar Livestock / Rainfed Agriculture Source : INRAT, 2005. Elaboration du plan de développement participatif de la Communauté de Zoghmar

4. High variation of the value of barley production High increase of feeding costs for livestock

5. . Assessing future scenarios for GCC and impacts on agriculture. Water management in crop production system WATER PRODUCTIVITY ASSESSMENT. Economic analysis IMPACTS OF IMPROVED TECHNIQUES ON FARMERS’ INCOME COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF IMPROVED MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES 3. THEMES

6. - Use of CGCM model (Canada) for climate projections - Use of CROPSYST model for yield projections -Agr. land to become marginally suitable or unsuitable to barley cropping -Extreme events and improved techniques (fetilization) not considered Source : A. Souissi, Prédictions du CC dans le Gouvernarat de Sidi Bouzid. PFE, ESA Kef, 2013 4. PRILIMINARY RESULTS ABOUT CC IMPACTS - SIDI BOUZID Past (Average)Projections Rainfall(80-2000) : 240 mm(2046-2065) : 233 (B1)/187 mm (A2) (81-2100) : 199 (B1)/156 mm (A2) Temperature(80-2000) : 20.1°2046-2065) : 21.6°(B1)/22.7° (A2) (81-2100) : 22.3° (B1)/25.1° (A2) Barley Yield(78-2012) : 7.6 Q/ha(2046-65) : 3.6 (B1) – 2.8 Q/ha (A2)

7. 5. TECHNOLOGIES (TO BE) APPLIED IN ORDER TO IMPROVE RESILIENCE TO DROUGHT AND CC Field testingReferenceImproved LAND MANAGEMENT Cactus : 1 ha / 1 farmer olive trees : 1 ha / 1 farmer Alley cropping Barley + cactus : 3 ha / 3 farmers Alley cropping Barley + olive trees : 3 ha / 3 farmer IRRIGATION Rainfed barley : 1 ha / 1 farmer barley : 2 ha / 1 farmer Forage crops (alfaalfa): 1 ha / 1 farmer

8. 1.ANALYSIS OF FARM INCOME OF DIFFERENT PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IMPACTS OF IMPROVED TECHNIQUES ON FARMERS’ INCOME - Questionnaire prepared and tested - Data collection (planned next october) 2. ECONOMIC LOSS OF NET BENEFIT DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE - Use of the production function approach -Data collection : Results of barley production (Q) models (theme 1), barley prices (P), quantity of inputs (K), cost of inputs (w). - Assessing the economic loss due to CC 3. ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY OF IMPROVED MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES Cost benefits analysis Data collection : Results of bio-physical models to measure costs and benefits during the lifetime (related to theme 2) Measuring the main indicators (B/C ratio, IRR) 6. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS : PROGRESS

9. Outscaling and dissemination of outputs to other areas in Tunisia and WLI partner countries Thank you