1. What’s Next for Welfare in New York? Lawrence M. Mead Department of Politics New York University

2. Nationally, welfare reform has meant: Tougher requirements on recipients:  Work tests.  Stronger sanctions.  Time limits. More benefits to support work. Favorable effects:  Higher work levels.  Caseload fall.  Lower poverty.

3. New York’s results are similar: Statewide:  Caseload fall of around 60%, 1995-2005  Sharp fall in child poverty. In NYC:  Sharp rise in work by disadvantaged mothers.  All public assistance drops 64%, 1995-2005  Sharp fall in child poverty.

4. But has NYS really reformed? State retained partial sanctions. No time limit. Work issues delegated to counties. Division in Albany. The danger of going backward.

5. Who implemented TANF best? ScoreGood govBig govSmall gov 6MN OR UT WI 5KS MI WAOHTN 4CAMO NJ NY RI 3COMAAZ NC WV 2AL MS TX 1FL GA

6. Reauthorization of TANF: Tougher 50% participation standard. 60-month Safety Net now included under the work test. NYS’s participation rate—adequate to date. But reaching 50% will be difficult due to:  Partial sanction.  Lack of a time limit. The election is unlikely to change this.

7. What to do now? Abandon entitlement:  Move to full family sanctions.  Phase out 60-month Safety Net for families. Possible lesser changes. Replace entitlement with casework. Improve welfare work programs.

8. Would this cause hardship? The vast majority of recipients can work. Work first is better than training. Honoring the constitutional commitment to the needy.

9. Beyond entitlement: Needy families should go to work first. Then government can do more to help them. Goal should be to:  Raise work levels further.  Reduce dependency. Rebuild aid on the other side of entitlement. Candidates need to address how to do this. New York could lead.