1. Prediction of coastal flooding at residence zones and transportation infrastructure at the east bank of Delaware Bay in sea ‐ level rise conditions Hansong Tang 1, Steven I-Jy Chien 2, Marouane Temimi 1 Cheryl Ann Blain 3, Qu Ke 1, Liuhui Zhao 2, Simon Kraatz 1 1 NOAA CREST/Dept. Civil Eng., CCNY 2 Dept. of Civil and Environ. Eng., NJIT 3 Oceanography Div., Naval Research Lab 8th Annual NOAA ‐ CREST Symposium, CCNY, June 6, 2013 Sponsored by UTRC/CREST

2. Outline 1. Motivation, challenge, and approaches 2. Region of study and data collection 3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology 4. Results and analysis 5. Concluding remarks

3. 1. Motivation, challenge, and approaches n Higher potential for coastal flooding, especially at NY/NJ coastlines Sea level rise (in 100 yrs, 0.2 – 0.6 m, even 0.8 – 2 m), strong hurricanes become more frequent  residence area, transportation system, etc. at risk n Objective Propose a modeling approach for coastal flooding, especially local flooding Case study at Cape May and Cumberland, NJ (one of the country's oldest vacation resorts, at most a few meters above sea level, frequently flooded) Motivation and Objective

4. 1. Motivation, challenge, and approach n Challenges flooding modeling with accuracy and detail (traffic way, bridge, etc.) –- require advanced approach and intensive computing besides coastal water, land runoff also contribute to flooding -- coupling is need population data collection -- population distribution, changes with time n Approaches high resolution approach coupling of hydrodynamics and hydrology population/flooding overlay, a model for future population Challenge and Approach

5. Region of Study West side of Delaware Bay Ave depth 7 – 30 m 2. Region of study and data collection Roads, Railroads, and Bridges Population 2010 in Cape May and Cumberland Counties (US Census Bureau 2013)

6. 2. Region of study and data collection Sea Level Rise, Storm, Bathymetry, and Cases of Study Sea level rise: IPCC Observation for storm: nor’easter Bathymetry and topography: NGDC, LIDAR, and USGS DEM Cases of study: Scenarios Frequency, projected sea-level rise (NAVD88) current, 0 m10 yr, 0.09 m50 yr, 0.42 m Storm returning period, peak elevation value no-storm, 0 m012 10-yr, 1.63m345 50-yr, 1.79m678

7. 3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology Hydrodynamics Model Shallow water model FVCOM External mode Internal mode Mesh and model setup (FVCOM 3000 elements, SWM 40,000 elements)

8. 3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology Hydrodynamics Model Calibration Hydrodynamic model calibration. Line – modeling, circle – measurement. a) and b) Current velocity measured at Brown Shoal Light. c) Surface elevation at Ship John Shoal

9. 3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology Hydrology Model and Flooding Determination Hydrologic model of runoff flooding ( f p --flood potential, -- elevation, d – distance to water) Flooding determination F =0, dry. F >, = 1 flooded

10. 4. Results and analysis Prediction of Population Projected population in municipals using a model that considers future trends on mortality, fertility, migration, etc. Municipalities201020202060 Avalon borough1,3341,3521,408 Cape May city3,6073,6573,807 Cape May Point borough291295307 Dennis township6,4676,5566,826 Lower township22,86623,18024,135 Middle township18,91119,17119,960 North Wildwood city4,0414,0964,265 Ocean City city11,70111,86212,350 Sea Isle City city2,1142,1432,231 Stone Harbor borough866878914 Upper township12,37312,54313,059 West Cape May borough1,0241,0381,081 West Wildwood borough603611636 Wildwood city5,3255,3985,620 Wildwood Crest borough3,2703,3153,451 Woodbine borough2,4722,5062,609 Cape May County Total97,26598,600102,661 Bridgeton city25,34926,69032,248 Commercial township5,1785,4526,587 Deerfield township3,1193,2843,968 Downe township1,5851,6692,016 Fairfield township6,2956,6288,008 Greenwich township8048471,023 Hopewell township4,5714,8135,815 Lawrence township3,2903,4644,185 Maurice River township7,9768,39810,147 Millville city28,40029,90336,130 Shiloh borough516543656 Stow Creek township1,4311,5071,820 Upper Deerfield township7,6608,0659,745 Vineland city60,72463,93777,251 Cumberland County Total156,898165,200199,600

11. 4. Results and analysis Prediction of Flooding a) Hydrodynamic b) Hydrology c) Hydrodynamics/Hydrology a) Zoom in flooding b) Flood area vs time c) Flood area vs sea level

12. 4. Results and analysis Various Flooded Zones Prediction of various flooded zones

13. 4. Results and analysis Distribution of Flooded Population Prediction of various flooded zones

14. 4. Results and analysis Numbers of Affected Population Municipals Scenarios 12345678 Cape May Point Borough254187253255284257259293 Dennis Township00116171718193241756 Lower Township5961061,2461,7025,7041,6371,9946,928 Middle Township1931221,0921,2083,1181,2541,3783,571 West Cape May Borough000000010 Cape May County Total1,0434152,7073,3369,8243,3413,87211,558 Commercial Township109281326354481346386522 Downe Township352418367404533403438586 Fairfield Township69151937232581 Greenwich Township672123343147241363 Hopewell Township000000011 Lawrence Township3755596686667389 Maurice River Township2467337377557371412624 Stow Creek Township00293448344051 Cumberland County Total5348371,1541,2772,0851,3901,6152,327

15. 4. Results and analysis Distribution of Flooded Transportation Facilities

16. 4. Results and analysis Flooded Transportation System Affected bridges Affected length (centerline miles) of roadways Affected length (miles) of railroads “ – ” represents a bridge is not located in a flooded area under that scenario “ x ” represents a bridge is possibly flooded because it is located in a flooded area “ f ” represents a bridge located in a flooded area will be flooded “ n ” represents a bridge located in a flooded area will not be flooded

17. n A multi-disciplinary approach is proposed to predict coastal flooding and its impact on residents and transportation systems, and it is applied to study future coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay. n Sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods. n A flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County, more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey. Summary 5. Concluding Remarks