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Part III: Policy responses Environment and Migration.

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Presentation on theme: "Part III: Policy responses Environment and Migration."— Presentation transcript:

1 Part III: Policy responses Environment and Migration

2 Adaptation and Migration A failure to adapt, or an adaptation strategy? Environment & Migration

3 1. The nature of adaptation

4 What is adaptation? Adaptation and mitigation, two facets of the same problem  Initial focus on mitigation, increased attention paid to adaptation  Key issue: balance between mitigation and adaptation  Both concerned with equity and fairness, though equity is more discussed with regard to mitigation.  Not the same goal:  Mitigation is about avoiding what would be impossible to manage  Adaptation is about managing what is impossible to avoid  Adaptation is concerned with costs, mitigation might bring some benefits as well

5 Adaptation is linked with mitigation  Crucial to deal with the unavoidable impacts of climate change  Can mute the impacts, but cannot solve the problem  Limited and costly  These limits and costs will rise with failure to tackle mitigation  Local benefits

6 Role of adaptation in reducing the damages

7 The rationale for adaptation Used to be (and still is) considered as an option that should follow (and could possibly undermine) mitigation.  Justified because some of climate impacts are already under way, while others are unavoidable.  Bargaining chip in the negotiation process.  Considered by some as the most efficient way to fight climate change, especially after the failure of Copenhagen.

8 The new name of development?  Adaptation remains difficult to define  Just an adjustment to change?  Adaptation as a process  Depends highly on regional and local impacts, which are still difficult to predict  Development is key to adaptation  Adaptation policies implemented by development agencies  But development can also lead to mal-adaptation  And adaptation has some specificities  Key issue: funding vehicles

9 Vulnerability and adaptive capacity  Two sides of a same coin.  Both are often reduced to:  The level of development – Economic determinism  The geographical exposure – Environmental determinism  Other components include:  Spatial organization  Social cohesion  Economic diversification  Political and institutional organization

10 2. Adaptation in the negotiations

11 Adaptation in the climate talks  Adaptation provides mostly local benefits > makes it harder to justify collective action.  Recognised on the same basis as mitigation since Marakkech (2001) and New Dehli (2002)  Nairobi Work Program (2006)  Poznan (2008): Adaptation Fund  Can it still be used as a bargaining chip after Copenhagen?

12 Funding  How much does it cost?  Depends on the discount rate  UNDP 2007: 86 bn US$ / year  OAU 2009: 67 bn US$ / year for Africa  How is it funded?  Least Advanced Countries Fund (re NAPAs) - UNFCCC  Special Climate Change Fund – UNFCCC  Adaptation Fund – KP  Copenhagen Green Climate Fund

13 Funding (ct’d)  At the end of 2009, less than 500 Mio $ were available through:  Voluntary contributions  A 2% tax on CDM projects  After Copenhagen:  Fast-start scheme: 10 Bio $ yearly on the 2010-2012, funded mostly by EU and Japan  Green Climate Fund: Goal: 100 Bio $ / year from 2020 onwards.  Issue of additionality  Additional funding provided by development agencies

14 How will it be spent?  Three issues:  Who will control the use of the money?  Is the money the payment of a debt or a voluntary contribution?  What kind of projects will be funded?  Is it possible to distinguish adaptation projects from development projects?  Where does adaptation start?  Who’s getting the money?  Who’s the most vulnerable?  Does the state need to channel all the funding?  Most likely, fast-start money will be used to fund some pilot- projects  Is adaptation the new name of development?

15 Three taboos of adaptation  In adaptation funding, what is the share justified only by climate change?  Micro-insurance schemes against droughts  On which basis will the funding be allocated?  On a first-come, first-served basis? Equity criteria?  Assistance or compensation?

16 Migration as a failure to adapt  Initially, migration was very little considered in the debates on adaptation.  Absent from NAPAs  Restricted to small island states

17 Lobbying in the negotiations  Some states pushed for migration to be included in the negotiation package:  States already confronted with massive population displacements: Bangladesh, Mozambique, etc.  States using climate change as a way to better migration deals with industrialised countries: Algeria, etc.  Scholars and NGOs also pushed for migration to be included  As well as IOM and UNHCR

18 The Cancun success  Creation of the Green Climate Fund: 100 bn $ / year for developing countries, starting in 2020.  Paragraph 14 f:  Measures to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate change induced displacement, migration and planned relocation, where appropriate, at national, regional and international levels  Policies related to migration and displacement are eligible for funding  Migration appears officially in UNFCCC texts  Recognition that migration can be an adaptation strategy

19 Some possible adaptation projects In the UNFCCC negotiation text FCCC/CP/2010/2, 10 February 2010

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21 3. Fleshing out the migration- adaptation nexus

22 Adaptation for whom?  For the migrants themselves  Usual way of presenting migration as adaptation.  For the community of destination  Dominant narrative of tensions and conflicts  Migration towards vulnerable regions.  For the community of origin  Most difficult aspect.  To be noted:  Migration studies have long considered migration as a positive process aimed at adjusting to changes.  Migration at large, not only environmentally-induced, has an impact on adaptation.  The maladaptive potential of migration.

23 Impact on the community of origin  Negative outcomes  Loss of workforce and assets  Feeling of abandonment  Positive outcomes  Migrants networks  Humanitarian and development projects  Political and economic lobbying  Mobilization after disasters  Remittances  Collective adaptation projects?  Philanthropy  Income diversification strategy  Alleviation of pressure on resources

24 4. Two policy directions

25 Enabling the right to leave  The right to leave is the key condition of asylum, originating after the Peace of Westphalia.  This right is currently jeopardised by environmental change.  The most vulnerable often find themselves unable to leave  Because they don’t have the resources to do so  Because of barriers to migration  Their life, health and livelihood are directly exposed to danger  Migration as a risk-reduction strategy  Issue of pro-active population displacements

26 Enabling the right to choose  Many of the migrants are forced migrants, and many of the stayers are forced stayers.  Adaptation needs  In the origin region, adaptation will reduce the environmental constraints to migration.  Adaptation will also be needed in the destination regions.  In many cases, a sensible adaptation policy would be to promote and facilitate migration: migration can be a key tool to improve human security.  Adaptation and migration policies need to be consistent with each other.

27 Pending questions  Shift towards the UNFCCC as the key framework to address environmental migration  What about non-climatic environmental disruptions?  Allocation of funding?  What kind of programme can be funded?  Who can apply?  Compensation?  Migration governance as an environmental policy?


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