1. Progress of HM & POP modelling from global to country scale Ilya Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Victor Shatalov, Alexey Gusev Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

2. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Outline  Overview of the GLEMOS (Global EMEP Multi-media Modelling System) model  Multi-model study of Hg processes and pollution levels  Research activities related to global POP transport  Country-scale modelling: HM case study for Belarus

3. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Anthropogenic emissions Atmosphere Land Ocean Human & environment exposure (CCE) Meteorology, ocean data Geophysics Atmospheric deposition Concentration in media Model development Global EMEP Multi-media Modelling System (GLEMOS) Main features: Multi-pollutant (heavy metals, POPs, aerosol, …) Multi-media formulation Multi-scale consistent approach (from global to local) Based on parameterisations of previous MSC-E models GLEMOS – new generation EMEP model for HMs and POPs aimed at replacement of previously used MSCE- HM and MSCE-POP models GLEMOS general scheme

4. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Multi-model study of mercury Hg processes in the atmosphere GLEMOS model development EU GMOS Mercury Modelling Task Force Model ensemble: GLEMOSEMEP/MSC-E ICHMERITCNR-IIA (Italy) GRAHMEnvironment Canada GEOS-ChemMIT (USA) CMAQ-Hg-HemLamar University (USA) WRF-ChemCNR-IIA (Italy) CMAQ-HgHZG (Germany) Objectives: Multi-model evaluation of Hg atmospheric processes Assessment of Hg intercontinental transport and future scenarios

5. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Evaluation of Hg atmospheric processes RV Urania Ground-based sites Marine cruises Aircraft measurements Hg 0 + O 3 Hg 0 + OH Hg 0 + Br Observations Effect of different Hg oxidation processes on Hg(II) gas concentration at Waldhof (DE2) Frankfurt - Vancouver (23 Jul 2009) Stratosphere Troposphere Effect of Hg 0 depletion in the stratosphere during CARIBIC flights GLEMOS model development Multi-model study of mercury

6. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Industrial sources Hg deposition from different emission sectors (2013) (UNEP/AMAP expert estimates) Stationary combustion Multi-model study of mercury Intentional use and product waste Speciation of global Hg emissions 0300600900 Intentional use & product waste Industrial sources Stationary combustion Hg emissions, t/y Hg 0 HgII gas HgII part GLEMOS model development

7. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Assessment of future emission scenarios (2035) 2035 Current policy New policy Maximum feasible reduction Simulated Hg deposition in 2010 and 2035 2010 Emission data source: GMOS/AMAP estimates GLEMOS model development Multi-model study of mercury

8. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Investigation of global POP transport using GLEMOS Research activities:  Investigation POP long-range transport and role of secondary sources  Assessment of intercontinental transport and source-receptor relationships (TF HTAP)  Multi-model study of global POP pollution  Verification of modelling results against UNEP SC GMP measurement data Models:  GLEMOS (EMEP/MSC-E)  BETR-Research (ETH, Switzerland and SU, Sweden) Substances:  PCBs, PCDD/Fs, HCB, … GLEMOS model development

9. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Annual mean concentrations of PCB-153 for 2012 (one-year model run) Investigation POP long-range transport and role of air-surface exchange Air concentrations due to single-hop and multi-hop transport from non- EMEP emissions sources (one-year model run) Long-range transport of POPs Single-hop Continent B Multi-hop Continent A GLEMOS model development EMEP region

10. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Source-Receptor modeling experiments using new HTAP division sources/receptor (HTAP2) Modeled annual mean PCB-153 air concentrations for 2012 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 PCB-153 concentration, pg/m 3 Anthropogenic Secondary sources Intercontinental POP transport: Influence of secondary sources EMEP Source/receptor regions GLEMOS model development

11. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 0.1 1 10 100 0.1110100 Observed, fg TEQ/m 3 Modelled, fg TEQ/m 3 North America 0.1 1 10 100 0.1110100 Observed, fg TEQ/m 3 Modelled, fg TEQ/m 3 Eastern Asia Modelled vs. observed PCDD/F air concentrations Comparison of modelled PCDD/F air concentrations against UNEP GMP measurements in South America in 2012 (Schuster et al., EST, 2015) Modelling with experimental emission scenario based on UNEP SC dioxins inventory Investigation of global transport and fate of PCDD/Fs GLEMOS model development 0.1 1 10 100 0.1110100 Observed, fg TEQ/m 3 Modelled, fg TEQ/m 3 Europe South America Outcome of POP research activities will be presented to UNEP SC (SC conference, Geneva, May 2015) Measurements: Global Monitoring Plan of SC

12. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 From global to regional scale Nested simulations on the new EMEP grid Hg total deposition over the globe (1°×1°) Hg deposition over the new EMEP grid (0.2°×0.2°) National scale Case Studies Belarus GLEMOS model development

13. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Country-scale pollution assessment Case studies of HM pollution in selected EMEP countries Approach: Evaluation of pollution levels in a country with fine spatial resolution involving variety of national data Requirements: Detailed emissions data (fine resolution, source categories, LPS) Additional measurements from national monitoring networks Participation of national experts in joint analysis of the results Countries involved: CountryCzech RepCroatiaNetherlandsBelarusPoland Statuscomplete in progressplanned Croatia Netherlands Czech Republic EMEP HM case study

14. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015  Preparation of input data emissions measurements meteorology concentrations in soils boundary concentrations ….. Major steps of HM case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012) 50x50 km 2 - EMEP countries: CEIP - Belarus: national experts Data sources: EMEP HM case study 10x10 km 2

15. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 EMEP HM case study  Preparation of input data emissions measurements meteorology concentrations in soils boundary concentrations ….. Major steps of HM case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012) BY urban stations (national experts) Berezinskiy reserve (national experts) EMEP station (CCC) PL stations (AirBase)

16. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015  Preparation of input data emissions measurements meteorology concentrations in soils boundary concentrations …..  Modelling over for selected domain with fine (10x10 km) resolution  Analysis of the results (together with national experts) EMEP HM case study Major steps of HM case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012) BY urban stations (national experts) Berezinskiy reserve (national experts) EMEP station (CCC) PL stations (AirBase)

17. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015  Preparation of input data emissions measurements meteorology concentrations in soils boundary concentrations …..  Modelling over for selected domain with fine (10x10 km) resolution  Analysis of the results (together with national experts) EMEP HM case study Major steps of HM case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012) BY urban stations (national experts) Berezinskiy reserve (national experts) EMEP station (CCC) PL stations (AirBase)

18. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Modelling of pollution levels in the EMEP domain Purpose: to generate boundary concentrations for country-scale modelling domain ng/m 3 - obs. sites 50x50 km 2 10x10 km 2 Pb in air, 2012 The model reasonably well reproduces Pb pollution in the EMEP region, keeping in mind existing uncertainties (EMEP/MSC-E status report 2014) ~ 40 stations EMEP domain Agreed domain EMEP HM case study Boundary conditions Bias = 7.9 % R corr = 0.9 NRMSE = 0.57 F2 = 69% F3 = 89% Pb in air

19. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 PL0538 Brz PL5PL0531 PL0148 PL0507 PL0214 Country-scale modelling (Pb, 2012) Total deposition Air concentration ng/m 3 kg/m 3 /y 10x10 km 2 EMEP station PL5, Poland Background urban stations, Poland (AirBase) EMEP HM case study Background station Belarus (non-EMEP)

20. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 PL0538 Brz PL5PL0531 PL0148 PL0507 PL0214 Modelled concentrations in air in 2012 with 10x10 km 2 resolution Modelled vs. observed air concentrations at station Berezinskiy reserve (non-EMEP station) ng/m 3 Obs. mean: 2.3 ng/m 3 Mod. mean: 0.8 ng/m 3 Uncertainly of measurements can be estimated through participation of BY in intercalibration tests (is to be discussed with CCC) EMEP HM case study

21. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 04 - 08 Mar. 2012 Future work: application of inverse modelling approach and develop emission scenarios Analysis of back trajectories (Berezinskiy reserve) 27 – 29 Apr. 2012 EMEP HM case study

22. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Modelled vs. observed air concentrations at Polish stations EMEP station National experts from PL need to be involved into analysis Reasonable agreement in warm period; underestimation in cold period No seasonal variability is officially reported in emission data EMEP HM case study

23. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Observed Pb air concentrations at urban stations Pb emission flux Observed conc. Observed air conc. in BY and other countries are comparable Discussion on emission and measurement issues with national experts (BY, RU…) and with EMEP centres (CEIP, CCC) is needed EMEP HM case study PM2.5 emission flux

24. 16 th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015 Further steps on Case Study activity with Belarus 2. Application of inverse modelling approach. Construct emission scenarios. 3. Cooperation with national experts from other neighboring countries (PL, RU, UA…) and EMEP centres (CCC, CEIP) is needed. Possible extension of modeling domain to include neighboring countries. 4. Pay attention to other pollutants. Compare results for Pb with traditional pollutants (S, N, PM), involving MSC-W. 1. Case study for Belarus can be used to test approach of pollution level assessment in other countries of the EECCA region. 5. Prepare detailed country-specific information for Belarus with fine spatial resolution:  Maps of pollution levels  Contributions of foreign and secondary sources  Pollution levels in individual regions  Contribution of emission source categories  Background levels for cities EMEP HM case study