1. Introduction to Spatial Modeling Michael F. Goodchild University of California Santa Barbara

2. Spatial modeling What is it? Why do it? Spatial modeling and spatial analysis –an example Types of modeling Organizing and thinking about the options

3. Definitions A model –a representation of something real –of a real process operating on the Earth's surface social or physical –a design process conceived by a human to search for the best alternative A digital representation –everything reduced to 0s and 1s –in software and data –executed on a computer a computational model

4. A spatial model A model of some process operating in space (and time) –there is variation across the space (and through time) –location is important the results of modeling change when locations change locations must be known

5. Models can also be analog Executed physically Scaled to practical size –scale factor is critical –scaled in space and time compressed and accelerated

7. (X,Y)(X,Y) (wi,xi,yi)(wi,xi,yi) Find (X,Y) to minimize:

8. The Varignon Frame

9. Scale and digital models Digital models don't have a scale factor –but they operate at limited spatial resolution Spatial resolution is a critical factor –it determines: what is left out of the model the cost of collecting data and running the model –it contributes to the model's accuracy the degree of uncertainty about the real world created by the model Temporal resolution is important for the same reasons

11. Why do it? It is better than experimenting on the real thing –surgery students and cadavers the digital cadaver –highway traffic simulation –global CO 2 Evaluating "what if" scenarios Gaining public interest and acceptance

14. Analyze or model? Analysis: –static, one point in time –searching for patterns, anomalies –generating ideas and hypotheses –evaluating Modeling: –may be dynamic, multiple points in time –implementing ideas and hypotheses to compare to the real world –experimenting with scenarios

18. Simulations 1.8 vehicles per driveway Driver behavior influenced by: –lane width –slope –view distances –traffic control mechanisms –information feedback –driver aggressiveness 770 homes –clearing times > 30 minutes 2D clip 3D clip

19. Policy implications Addition of new outlets Better deployment of traffic control resources Understanding the risk Reduce cars used per household Problems of shut-ins, elderly, latch-key kids

20. Types of modeling Static or dynamic? –are there time steps? –are they iterated? does the model loop? output of one step becomes the input of the next how are the initial conditions defined? –is there a real process to emulate?

21. Static model example The Universal Soil Loss Equation –prediction of soil erosion –from potentially knowable inputs Five inputs, one output

23. Is USLE a spatial model? No, point inputs and point output –it doesn't matter where the points are –this could be done in Excel downloadable procedure at http://www.co.dane.wi.us/landconservation/uslepg.htm http://www.co.dane.wi.us/landconservation/uslepg.htm So why use a GIS? –calculation of inputs slope from DEM –inputs in map form –output in map form –integration with other GIS operations

24. Social, physical, or integrated? Social: –a model of some process operating among humans or animals Physical: –a model of some natural process operating in the environment Integrated: –a model of the interaction of social and physical processes land cover change, driven by humans, impacting the environment

25. Individual or aggregate? Modeling each individual separately –data-intensive impossible for many physical processes –accurate Modeling the behavior of aggregates –quick, cheap –the only option when individual data are confidential Illustrations from:

26. Geovisualization of Human Activity Patterns Using 3D GIS: A Time- Geographic Approach Mei-Po Kwan and Jiyeong Lee Mei-Po KwanJiyeong Lee

27. Identifying Ethnic Neighborhoods with Census Data: Group Concentration and Spatial Clustering: John R. Logan and Wenquan ZhangJohn R. LoganWenquan Zhang

28. The Steinitz framework Models at various stages of the decision- making or problem-solving process

29. Landscape Change Model by Carl Steinitz CHANGE MODELS IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODELS DATA INFORMATION KNOWLEDGE DATA INFORMATION KNOWLEDGE 1.How should the landscape be described? 2.How does the landscape operate? 3.Is the landscape working well? 4.How might the landscape be altered? 5.What differences might the changes cause? 6.Should the landscape be changed? REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS Landscape Assessment Landscape Intervention

30. How do models manage space? As a raster –cellular models As vector objects –possibly moving –object-oriented models

31. How do models manage time? As discrete intervals –fixed in time As a continuum –rates of change and movement

32. Cellular models Raster-based –but the raster could be irregular Each cell has a number of potential states Rules determine changes in the states of raster cells –based on the states of other (often neighboring) cells –Game of LifeGame of Life

35. Planning Scenario Visualization and Assessment: A Cellular Automata Based Integrated Spatial Decision Support System Roger White, Bas Straatman, and Guy Engelen Roger WhiteBas StraatmanGuy Engelen

36. Lots of options and potential How to organize? –how to think about the alternatives? Visual –a picture is worth a thousand words –people like to think visually especially if pictures can be translated directly into models STELLA –boxes and arrows

38. Modeling Spatial Information SOILS ELEVATION VEGETATION RAIN FALL SLOPE EROSION POTENTIAL EROSION HAZARD

39. Overlay and combine values according to the Boolean rule If (A.EQ.1).AND.(B.GT.2) then C=1 else C=0

40. A groundwater example http://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/0704/files/ modelbuilder.pdfhttp://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/0704/files/ modelbuilder.pdf Alan Glennon and Rhonda Pfaff Tutorial

41. Conceptual Model Visual Representation Script (VBA, Python, AML, Avenue) GIS execution Initial conditions, parameters, rules Maps, tables, charts

42. What are the operations/nodes? Any operation on spatial data –any GIS operation Many thousands of possibilities –more than 400 entries in Toolbox –plus all the desktop operations

43. Raster-only options Map algebra –Dana Tomlin's Cartographic Modeling Focal –operations on a cell across layers not strictly spatial Global –operations on all cells Local –operations on a cell and its neighbors Zonal –operations on a cell and contiguous cells of the same attribute value

44. PCRaster and its language Developed at the University of Utrecht –by Peter Burrough and colleagues Simple algebraic language –C = A + B –equivalent to FocalAdd A and B to get C CA models can be written in the language –along with many other social and physical process models –see http://pcraster.geog.uu.nl/ for examples etc.http://pcraster.geog.uu.nl/

45. A more comprehensive option P A Longley, M F Goodchild, D J Maguire, and D W Rhind, 2001. Geographic Information Systems and Science. New York: Wiley.P A Longley, M F Goodchild, D J Maguire, and D W Rhind, 2001. Geographic Information Systems and Science. New York: Wiley.

46. A six-way conceptual classification Query and reasoning Measurement Transformation Descriptive summary Optimization Hypothesis testing

47. Queries and reasoning Real-time answers to geographic questions –Where is…? –What is this? –How do I get from here to here? Based on alternative views of a database

52. Measurements Area Distance Length Perimeter Slope, aspect Shape

54. Transformations Buffering Points in polygons Polygon overlay Spatial interpolation Density estimation

56. City limits Areas reachable in 5 minutes Areas reachable in 10 minutes Other areas

62. Courtesy of Dick Block

63. Descriptive summary Centers Measures of spatial dispersion Spatial dependence Fragmentation Fractional dimension

65. Optimization Design to achieve specific objectives Location of central point-like facilities to serve dispersed demand Location of linear facilities Design of boundaries for elections

67. Hypothesis testing Geographic objects as a sample from a population –what is the population? The independence assumption –the First Law of Geography –failure to find spatial dependence is always a Type II error –hell is a place with no spatial dependence