1. ET2050 Transport Trends and Scenarios Michael Wegener Spiekermann & Wegener (S&W) ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Brussels, 19 March 2012

2. 2 EU transport trends 1995-2010 Source: European Commission, 2011)

3. 3 Expected transport trends (Germany) Source: ARL, 2011)

4. 4 Transport in ET2050 scenarios Because of the importance of transport for spatial development, transport should be a component of all ET2050 scenarios. The transport component of the baseline scenario and the exploratory scenarios should consist of two kinds of assumptions: assumptions about developments exogenous to transport and assumptions about European transport policy. However, assumptions about the impacts of these assumptions should not be made: the prediction of their impacts should be left to the models.

5. 5 Baseline scenario: exogenous developments For the baseline scenario in transport the following assumptions about exogenous developments will have to be made: Economy: assumptions about the speed of recov- ery of the European economy Energy: assumptions about the speed of energy price increases Climate: assumptions about policies to achieve the CO 2 reduction targets of the EU Demography: assumptions about immigration policies within and into the EU

6. 6 Baseline scenario: transport policy For the baseline scenario in transport the following assumptions about transport policy will have to be made: Will the new TEN-T Guidelines come into effect? To what degree will the core network defined in the Guidelines be implemeted by 2030? To what degree will the comprehensive network defined in them be implemented by 2050? Or will the effects of the economic and fiancial crisis lead to a shift of transport investments towards growth-oriented projects?

7. 7 Exploratory scenarios: transport policy For the definition of the exploratory scenarios, the following options in transport policy exist: Transport infrastructure: assumptions about the selection of TEN-T projects: - priority to major metropolitan areas? - priority to small and medium-sized cities? - priority to rural/peripheral regions? - priority to road or rail? Transport demand management: assumptions about positive or negative monetary incentives, such as fuel taxes or road user charges

8. 8 Wegener, M. (2012): Thematic Report on Transport. Draft 12/03/2012. Dortmund: Spiekermann & Wegener Urban and Regional Research. http://www.et2050.eu/ europe_2050/TechNotes/ET2050_DiscNote17_Transport _Report_(v12032012).pdf More information