1. The Problems facing us: Global Warming - Energy Security Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences CPRE - 28th July 2005 CRed Meeting our Future Energy Needs

2. Future Global Warming Rates

3. Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Change in precipitation 1961-2001

4. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity

5. 2003 1979 Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region –Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years

6. Cumulative Production to 31 st December 2004 –3005 Mtonnes Average Annual consumption 2000 – 2004: ~ 100 Mtonnes Remaining Reserves –Minimum 533 Mtonnes –Maximum 2412 Mtonnes Remaining Life (No exports) –Minimum 5.33 years –Maximum 24.12 years UK Oil Production

7. Cumulative Production to 31 st December 2004 –1921 billion cubic metres (bcm) Average Annual consumption 2000 – 2004: ~ 100 bcm Remaining Reserves –Minimum 531 bcm –Maximum 1169 bcm Remaining Life (No exports) –Minimum 5.31 years –Maximum 11.69.12 years UK Gas Production Became net importer in 2004 Winter 2004/2005 ~10% of consumption was imported

8. Business as usual ~ 2.3% compound Growth 1.5% compound Growth Non-Electric Fuel Consumption Current GDP growth is ~2.3% per annum At 1.5% growth in economy > a 10.2% reduction in CO 2 At 1.9%  Constant level of emissions Will require a 2.2% reduction in fuel use per annum to get 60% reduction on 1990 levels by 2050. Electricity Consumption Current GDP growth is ~2.3% per annum GDP growth would have to be ~1.15% for no change in demand. Change in fuel mix will have a more dominant effect. ? Would a reduction in GDP to this level by itself provide necessary technical impetus? Or would the energy ratio increase? Economic Growth CAN be associated with a reduction in Fuel Use

9. Government Response Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO 2 emissions by 2050 Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003

10. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 900 000 party balloons each year On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

11. Some facts: A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 20 kg CO 2 a year (200 party balloons) Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO 2 (5% of one hot air balloon ) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles or 25 party balloons

12. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Difficult Choices Ahead

13. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

14. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol?

15. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

16. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

17. House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

18. Meeting our Future Energy Needs Major Changes in the Energy Supply Industries 1987 British Gas privatised 1990 Electricity Industry Privatised – some deregulation 1990’s Various Tranches of Non Fossil Fuel Obligation 1997-1999 Full deregulation of Gas and Electricity Markets 2001 NETA – New Electricity Trading Arrangements 2002 Renewables Obligation 2005 1 st January EU-ETS (Emission Trading System) 2005 1 st April BETTA Many of these are moving Electricity Generation away from centralised generation to localised generation.

19. We need –A Low Carbon Future –Energy Security Decisions need to be made very soon Above objectives can be achieved by –Individuals taking action to reduce demand –Legislation –Exploitation of Energy Resources consistent with carbon reduction and Energy Security Options not available except at research level for 20+years –Carbon Sequestration –Tidal Stream/Wave –Hydrogen as a Fuel We need to consider what our energy vector should be Meeting our Future Energy Needs