1. Workshop on Demographic Analysis and Evaluation حلقة عمل بشأن التحليل الديمغرافي والتقييم

2. Demographic Analysis Cohort-component Projections for Analysis and Evaluation: Part 2 إسقاطات مكون الافواج(الفئات) للتحليل والتقييم: الجزء 2

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4. Cohort-component Projections إسقاطات مكون الافواج We now know how to develop a cohort-component projection base population that accounts for coverage errors in key age groups and which agrees with fertility and mortality levels. Next steps:  Select base year estimates of components of change that also agree with base population. (if available, select additional estimates beyond base year)  Extrapolate components of change to future years 4

5. 5 This Table Comes from a Cohort-component Projection Based on a 1989 Census Count ويأتي هذا الجدول من إسقاط الفوج مكون أساس في إحصاء تعداد السكان عام 1989

6. Cohort-component Projections إسقاطات مكون الافواج Why do we still need to think about consistency in selecting base year components of change? لماذا لا يزال نحتاج إلى التفكير في الاتساق في تحديد مكونات سنة الأساس للتغيير؟ 6

7. 7 Inconsistency Between Population and Fertility/Mortality Illustration of base population disconnect: Bangladesh 1981 Population in Thousands 010002000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Male 010002000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Female Cohort-component Projections إسقاطات مكون الافواج

8. 8 Inconsistency Between Population and Fertility/Mortality Illustration of base population disconnect: Bangladesh 1986 Population in Thousands 010002000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Male 010002000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Female Cohort-component Projections إسقاطات مكون الافواج

9. Inconsistency Between Population and Fertility/Mortality 9 Illustration of base population disconnect: Bangladesh 1991 Population in Thousands 010002000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Male 010002000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Female Cohort-component Projections إسقاطات مكون الافواج

10. Cohort-component – The Balancing Equation Fits فوج-المكون – يناسب المعادلة موازنة After selecting appropriate base year components of change to ensure consistency, we can select additional estimates as available beyond base year, then extrapolate their levels to future years. We will focus on components of fertility and mortality. Two key PAS tools can be used for this step: E0LGST and TFRLGST 10

11. From Estimates to Projections من التقديرات للإسقاطات The discussion follows chapter 8 of the Census Bureau’s Population Analysis with Microcomputers. The methods used for preparing the inputs for projection discussed in more detail in chapter 8. 11

12. 12 Select TEMP folder, Folder PASEXNew, Spreadsheet E0LGST.xls Extrapolation with E0LGST استقراء مع E0LGST Spreadsheet: E0LGST.xls

13. 13 Input e(0)s View output Extrapolation with E0LGST استقراء مع E0LGST Spreadsheet: E0LGST.xls

14. 14 Extrapolation with TFRLGS استقراء مع TFRLGST Select TEMP folder, Folder PASEXNew, Spreadsheet TFRLGSTNew.xls Spreadsheet: TFRLGSTNew.xls

15. 15 Input TFRs Adjust Asymptotes, as needed Output TFRs Extrapolation with TFRLGS استقراء مع TFRLGST Spreadsheet: TFRLGSTNew.xls

16. Cohort-component Projections إسقاطات مكون الافواج We now have a basic, internally consistent cohort- component projection, with base population that accounts for coverage errors in key age groups and fully agrees with fertility and mortality levels for relevant years, and includes fertility and mortality extrapolations. Next steps:  If available, add in measures of migration  Compare projection to census and evaluate results: consider which population is more accurate and for which age groups, and what sex. 16

17. Cohort-component Projections إسقاطات مكون الافواج Next steps: If migration measures are not available, what method can we employ to estimate them? Hint: With our census and cohort-component projection (that only includes change due to fertility and mortality) we can calculate the difference between overall population growth and natural increase! 17

18. Cohort-component Projections إسقاطات مكون الافواج Next steps: Answer: If migration measures are not available, we can employ a residual method to estimate them. What PAS software tool is available for employing this residual method? RUPCEN 18

19. Estimating Migration with RUPCEN: A Review تقدير الهجرة مع روبسين: استعراض 1.From PASEXNew.xls, access RUPCEN.xls 2.Save file in desired location 19 Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls

20. 3.Enter RUP name and and location 4.Enter census reference date 5.Enter census data 6. Press extract button 20 Estimating Migration with RUPCEN: A Review تقدير الهجرة مع روبسين: استعراض Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls

21. View graphs, for male and female populations. 21 Estimating Migration with RUPCEN: A Review تقدير الهجرة مع روبسين: استعراض Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls

22. View graphs, for male and female populations, as well as percent net census error by sex. 22 Estimating Migration with RUPCEN: A Review تقدير الهجرة مع روبسين: استعراض Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls

23. In this example, the graphs suggest male migration only. 23 Estimating Migration with RUPCEN: A Review تقدير الهجرة مع روبسين: استعراض Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls

24. Examine the numerical data, in the Male, Female, and Both sexes spreadsheet tabs… Notice implied levels of male migration by age group. 24 Indirect Estimation: Residual Technique using Cohort-component Population Projections التقدير غير المباشر: تقنية المتبقية باستخدام "الإسقاطات السكانية" الفوج مكون Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls

25. If the difference between projection and RUP can be attributed to migration (for at least some age groups) AND If the census is 5 years following your base year (or any multiple of 5 years following your base year) average annual estimates can be developed… 25 Estimating Migration with RUPCEN: A Review تقدير الهجرة مع روبسين: استعراض Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls

26. In our example, the base year of projection is 2000; the census is 10 years after in 2010. A residual estimate can then be developed (in this example for males only) by “shifting back” cohorts 5 years… 26 Estimating Migration with RUPCEN: A Review تقدير الهجرة مع روبسين: استعراض Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls

27. “Shifting back” cohorts, to the next younger age places the net migration estimate in the mid-intercensal period (2005). 27 Estimating Migration with RUPCEN: A Review تقدير الهجرة مع روبسين: استعراض Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls

28. After “shifting back,” to capture the proper time reference, the values can be annualized (again only in a 10-year intercensal period) by dividing them by 10. 28 Estimating Migration with RUPCEN: A Review تقدير الهجرة مع روبسين: استعراض Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls

29. Since net error for other age groups is likely due to census undercount, assume zero net annual migration for them, accordingly. 29 Estimating Migration with RUPCEN: A Review تقدير الهجرة مع روبسين: استعراض Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls

30. To what can we attribute remaining differences? 1. Faulty census? 2.Errors in estimated base population; projected fertility, mortality, or migration? 3. Combination of 1 and 2? 30 Comparison of Cohort-component Projections with Migration to Census: Evaluation of Accuracy مقارنة بين الإسقاطات الفوج مكون مع الهجرة للتعداد: تقييم دقة Spreadsheet: RUPCEN.xls