1. How Did Metro Boston Grow? 2000-2010 11.521 – Spatial Database Management and Advanced GIS Final Presentation Group Members: Amy Jacobi, Eric Schultheis, Nse Umoh, Rob Goodspeed, Samira Thomas Prof. Joseph Ferreira

2. Presentation Outline Project Goals Process Methodology Results Conclusions

3. PROJECT GOALS

4. Project Goals Evaluate growth patterns in the metro-Boston between 2000 and 2010. Compare observed growth in the last decade with the MetroFuture scenarios: Let It Be and Winds of Change. Understand the effect of observed growth on greenhouse gas emissions by private vehicles.

5. PROCESS

6. Process Map Land Use Polygons (1999 & 2005) Census Block Populations ‘Non-Residential’ Block Finder Allocation Model Allocation to 250m Grid MetroFuture Scenarios (TAZs) Results Allocation to TAZ Allocation to Residential Areas Allocation to Sensible Geographies Input Data Evaluating Growth in metro-Boston Allocation to 25m Grid Geoprocessing VMT (205m Grid)

7. METHODOLOGY

8. Conflicting Topographies: An Example Area

9. Conflicting Topographies

11. The Grid(s)

12. Resolving Conflicts with the Grid (25m)

13. Allocation to Residential Areas Identify residential and institutional land uses. Identify blocks that do not intersect residential land use areas. Land use allocation –Sliver Finder Integrate Census Blocks (2000, 2010) and residential land uses Calculate areas, perimeter, and area/perimeter ratio Eliminate features with areas less than 400 sqm and area/perimeter ratio less than 1 –Population/housing unit allocation model (Access) P aloc = P * (A + L) / 2 A = land use area % of total area of Block, L = land use area % of residential area in Block

14. Model to Identify Block that do not Intersect with Residential Areas Model to Allocate to Residential Areas ArcGIS Models: Allocating to Residential Areas

15. Allocation to Residential Areas

16. Merge allocated residential areas with ‘missed’ blocks forming an allocated areas polygon file. Calculate the number of 25m grid centroids that fall in each allocated areas polygon. Identify allocated areas polygons with no 25m grid centroids. Convert the allocated areas polygons to 25m grid celss. Aggregate allocated 25m grid cells to 250m grid cells (add in population missed by 25m grid method). Aggregate allocated 25m grid cells to TAZs (add in population missed by 25m grid method). Allocation to Sensible Geographies

17. ArcGIS Models: Allocating to Sensible Geographies Model to Merge Habitable Area and Populated Blocks with no Residential Area. Model to Allocate to 25m Grid and then Aggregate to 250m Grid (due to resolution of 25m grid, metro-Boston area must be divided into 32 slivers and the model needs to be ran for each sliver )

18. Allocation to Sensible Geographies

19. Comparing 11.521 & MassGIS Allocations

20. Census 2000Census 2010 Regional Block Data From Census 4,317,3334,465,821 Grid Cell Allocation4,292,1664,426,075 Percent Allocated99.42%99.11% The Allocation: A Regional View

21. RESULTS

22. Metro Boston Population by Community Type

23. Metro Boston Population Proportion by Community Type

24. Metro Boston Housing Units By Community Type

25. Metro Boston Housing Units Proportion, by Community Type

26. Change in Proportion of Population in CODAs, since 2000

27. Population Change (Percent & Raw) by Town, since 2000

28. Housing Unit Change (Percent & Raw) by Town, since 2000

29. Histogram of Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by Grid Cell

30. Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by Community Type Community Type Average VMT per Household Minimum VMT per Household Maximum VMT per Household Standard Deviation of VMT per Household Inner Core101311473296782259 Maturing Suburbs121001074299482571 Regional Urban Centers122241319289372683 Developing Suburbs136041262296382734 Metro Future Region128451074299482827

31. Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by Community Type & CODA

32. Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by CODA TAZ TYPE Average VMT per Household Minimum VMT per Household Maximum VMT per Household Standard Deviation of VMT per Household Non-CODA132551074294482777 CODA116821301299482638 Metro Future Region 128451074299482827

33. Population Change by CODA, since 2000

34. Growth by Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled Area Type VMT Type Average VMT per Household Very Low<7000 Low7001-10,000 Medium10,001-13,000 High13,001-18,000 Very High>18,000

35. Growth by Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled Area Type

36. VMT Type Average VMT per Household % of Region (Area) % of Regional Growth Very Low<70001%3% Low7001-10,00019%53% Medium10,001-13,00048%22% High13,001-18,00030%17% Very High>18,0002%5% The two lowest VMT categories (less than 10,000 miles per Household per year), which accounted for 20% of the regions is land, contained 56% of the region’s growth over the past decade. Greenfield development, which occurred in 3% of the region’s area, contributed 43% of the population growth for the metro-Boston region. The average household VMT for these cells was over 1,000 miles higher than the average household VMT for the metro-Boston region (13,186 vs. 12,037).

37. CONCLUSIONS