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Turkey and the European Union: Problems and Prospects Daedalos Institute of Geopolitics & University of Cyprus Conference Nicosia, 11 June 2009 *********** Credible Commitments: An Elusive Quality in EU-Turkey Accession Negotiations Mehmet Ugur Jean Monnet Reader European Political Economy
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Plan Open-ended accession negotiations: the new beast Modeling open-ended accession negotiations: credibility matters! Open-ended accession negotiations deliver sub-optimal outcomes Evidence from EU-Turkey negotiations What is the way out?
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1. Open-ended accession negotiations: the new beast Open-ended accession negotiations framework: a new commitment mechanism Aims: –Ensure convergence between candidate country and the EU before integration; –Reduce risks of enlargement – mainly for the EU Instruments: –Economic and political reforms in candidate countries in return for a membership prospect Novelty: –Target time for accession is not specified –Accession may be granted with significant exemptions that restrict membership entitlements of acceding countries Rationale: –Avoid the end-game problem associated with pre-2004 accessions – i.e., reduce the risk of reform performance failures by candidate countries
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2. Modeling open-ended accession negotiations: credibility matters Ingredients of the model: 3 choice variables for EU and Turkey 1.Turkey’s choice variable: level of compliance with EU’s reform conditionality (R) 2.EU’s choice variable: membership prospect offered (M = 1/t where t is number of years until possible accession) 3.Choice variables for both parties: –Turkey’s probability of commitment to reforms (π) –EU’s probability of commitment to membership prospect (z)
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2. Modeling open-ended accession negotiations: credibility matters The model: A stochastic (probabilistic) utility maximisation model
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2. Modeling open-ended accession negotiations: credibility matters The model: A stochastic (probabilistic) utility maximisation model
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2. Modeling open-ended accession negotiations: credibility matters The model: A stochastic (probabilistic) utility maximisation model
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3. Open-ended accession negotiations deliver sub- optimal outcomes Why sub-optimal outcomes? Because open-ended accession negotiations generate perverse incentives such that: Turkey sets its probability of commitment (π) at less than ½ And EU sets its probability of commitment (z) at less than ½ Perverse incentives spelled out: 1.Perverse incentive I: an increase in own probability of commitment has uncertain effect on own utility; but positive effect on the opposite party’s utility (the positive externality problem) 2.Perverse incentive II: an increase in own probability of commitment reduces the incentive for the opposite party to perform (i.e., R or M falls) (the free-riding problem)
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3. Open-ended accession negotiations deliver sub- optimal outcomes Sub-optimal outcomes: a diagrammatical demonstration EU and Turkey settles on Mc and Rc instead of M* and R* π = Turkey’s probability of commitment z = EU’s probability of commitment
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4. Evidence from EU-Turkey accession negotiations During the pre-accession period (2000-2004): Turkish governments have undertaken 8 reforms packages, including sensitive issues such as minority rights Turkish public opinion support for EU membership has peaked at 71-74% in 2004 A new coalition of ownership for the integration project has replaced the old coalition Turkey-sceptic members (such as France, Germany, Austria) failed to prevent the start of accession negotiations After the start of open-ended accession negotiations in 2005: Developments in Turkey The level and quality of reform has fallen dramatically AKP has taken a definite turn away from policy entrepreneurship towards policy opportunism New anti-democratic legislation has been introduced Anti-democratic and corrupt government practices have increased
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4. Evidence from EU-Turkey accession negotiations After the start of open-ended accession negotiations in 2005: Developments in Turkey (continued …) AKP government failed to extend the Additional Protocol to Cyprus Public opinion support for EU membership fell to 44% in 2006 and 42% in 2008 Turkish public opinion trust in EU institutions is the lowest among EU-27 + other candidates Governance quality in Turkey has deteriorated or remained stagnant (and below income group average)
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4. Evidence from EU-Turkey accession negotiations After the start of open-ended accession negotiations in 2005: Developments in the EU Turkey’s membership prospect has deteriorated dramatically So far, only 9 chapters have been opened – but none of these can be closed In contrast, 13 chapters have been frozen (8 related to the non- implementation of the additional protocol and 5 related to membership) France, Germany and Austria have become more vocal and influential vis-a-vis the majority view in the EU European public opinion support for Turkish membership is very low – only 39% of respondents to a 2006 Eurobarometer survey think Turkey should become a member even if it complies with all EU conditions Pro-Turkish membership members have become less vocal in their support
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5. Is there a way out? Open-ended accession negotiations create such an environment that: Turkey’s reform performance becomes a function of EU’s commitment probability Membership prospect offered by the EU becomes a function of Turkey’s commitment probability Unilateral action by either party (unilateral increase in Reform or in Membership Prospect) does not lead to movement towards optimal equilibrium – hence it is neither feasible nor sustainable. Therefore both parties must coordinate their commitment probabilities (π and z). This can be done through periodic summits Then, any deviation from optimal reform (R*) and membership prospect (M*) can be rectified by adjustment of commitment probabilities.
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