1. What are the most efficient measures of mitigation and adaptation to produce more in a sustainable manner? Dr. Ada Ignaciuk, Agricultural Policy Analyst, Environmental Division of Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD Email: Ada.Ignaciuk@oecd.org

2. Scenario analysis - socio-economic developments - climate - technology projections 1) OECD’s short-medium term projections ‘OECD-FAO Outlook’ 2) OECD’s long term projections

3. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Agricultural Outlook - a set of conditional projections published in an OECD-FAO annual report Comprehensive, dynamic partial equilibrium model Dedicated OECD-FAO web page: www.agri-outlook.org

4. Co-operators Program Involve member governments in global projection process – to link expertise world wide and build consensus on emerging national and global issues – Participate in annual world commodity projection – Access to data, models, commodity experts – Participate in analysis projects – Access to capacity building – training – Tap global expertise

5. Climate damages 5 OECD (2010)

6. 6 Climate Change costs

7. Market outlook: prices OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 7 % change in average (real) prices 2002-11 to 2012-21 “2012-21 prices above last decade”

8. Prices 8

9. Zooming into Mexican (irrigated) yields 9

10. Land use 10

11. 11 Autonomous adaptation e.g. changing cropping patterns, changing varieties Changes in management practices e.g. no-till More efficient management of inputs Improved water management Adaptation -on field Adaptation - different governance Provide information on e.g. weather and provide advisory services Biofuels R&D Improved soil management Mitigation and adaptation plans Diversify livelihood Insurances Shift production Changes in management of manure Mitigation Adding legumes Agroforestry

12. 12

13. Conclusions Climate change will affect agricultural production; but still many uncertainties To align adaptation and mitigation policies now, across different governance levels Holistic approach to climate policies to avoid maladaptation practices Climate change may be a challenge for some, but opportunities for others 13

14. Summary, databases, podcasts, commodity focus Contacts and links Access to the Aglink-Cosimo collaborative site www.agri-outlook.org

15. 15 OUTLINE Aglink-Cosimo Model Countries and Regions covered

16. 16