1. THE CHARACTERISATION OF A RIVER BASIN DISTRICT Case study on the construction of the baseline scenario Inspired from the Oise case (F) Most elements picked from "Réalisation de scénarios de référence sur le bassin de l'Oise et de l'Aisne", Agence de l'eau Seine-Normandie, 2002

2. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 l Only mentioned in the directive  annex III: one aspect of the 2004 characterisation l What role for the baseline scenario?  forecast what would happen in a given river basin district without WFD  basis of risk of non-compliance analysis  feeds economic analysis BASELINE SCENARIO UNDER WFD Most elements come from WATECO Guidance 2/11

3. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 FLOW CHART OF THE PROCEDURE FOR CONSTRUCTING BASELINE SCENARIO 3/11 Main steps WFD procedure Goal Characterisation - Description of the district - Economic analysis of water uses / services - Recovery of costs - Baseline scenario - Identification of potential gaps Monitoring programme Management plan Good Ecological Status 2004200620092015 Assess current trends in trend variables Project certain changes in water policy variables  Derive one/several realistic business as usual scenarios  Integrate changes in critical uncertainties (optional)

4. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 BASELINE SCENARIO IN PRACTICE Source: Ministry of the environment, Québec, Canada 199520052015 4/11

5. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 PRESENTATION OF THE RIVER BASIN Physical description  17 000 km²  2 400 km of streams with 2 main rivers (A and B)  14 sub-sectors  1,8 M inhabitants 5/11 Water related concerns  High diffuse pollution from agricultural runoff  High urban water intensity  Dense industrial concentration  Poor water quality in River A and in small tributaries River A River B River basin sub-sectors Goal: forecast water status in 2015 Source of original map: Agence de l'Eau Seine-Normandie

6. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 THE METHODOLOGY APPLIED Continuous involvement of stakeholders Appraisal of water status in 2015  Experts' judgements  Hydrological model to simulate impact of discharges  Statistical forecasts 6/11 Determination of trends until 2015 from evolution of activities…  …to evolution of discharges E.g. +50 000 inhabitants +3 new industries  ~+58 000 EH to be treated

7. Scenario 1995 2005 2015  1990-99: +2,7%  1,8 million inhabitants in 1999  higher increase close to major urban areas and along rivers A & B  Trend 1988-00: -8% livestock  Present annual discharges:  organic matters: 1900t  reduced nitrogen: 250t  phosphorus: 50t ASSESS CURRENT TRENDS IN TREND VARIABLES  Do not rely too much on past projections: it may lead to false projections Do not rely too much on past projections: it may lead to false projections  Disaggregated approach might be preferable. E.g. for demand forecasting Disaggregated approach might be preferable. E.g. for demand forecasting 7/11 l Demography l Rural discharges  individual  stormwater l Urban discharges  collective  stormwater l Agricultural discharges l Industrial discharges

8. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 PROJECT CERTAIN CHANGES IN WATER POLICY VARIABLES E.G. URBAN DISCHARGES 8/11 Hypothesis: full implementation of urban wastewater directive (91/271/EEC) Actions  306 000 more inhabitants con- nected to pipes 306 000 more inhabitants con- nected to pipes  rehabilitation of pipes rehabilitation of pipes  creation, extension, improvement of 270 existing treatment plants (2,175M EH) creation, extension, improvement of 270 existing treatment plants (2,175M EH)  improvement of stormwater col- lection improvement of stormwater col- lection Impacts Impacts  better collection rate  more effluents to treat better collection rate  more effluents to treat  increased treatment performances  higher depollution rate increased treatment performances  higher depollution rate Connected industry 340 - 12% Housing Activities 1 147 140 Urban wastewater treatment plant Charge : 1 487 Depollution:1 347 Urban soils Charge: 71 Depollution: 7 71 1364 158 Stormwater treatment Discharges of organic matters from urban origins: projection in 2015 Figures: x1000 EH Source of original map: Agence de l'Eau Seine-Normandie

9. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 Hypothesis: full implementation of urban wastewater directive (91/271/EEC) Impacts  69 M€/yr if actions are phased between 2000 and 2015  185 M€/yr if directive deadline (2005) is implemented  101 M€/yr if implementation is "postponed" until 2010 Estimation of costs EXAMPLE OF PROJECTION OF CERTAIN CHANGES IN WATER POLICY VARIABLES: APPLICATION TO URBAN DISCHARGES Figures to be compared with actual investment: 46 M€ in 2000 9/11

10. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 HYPOTHESIS: +4% average annual rainfall i.e. +18-44mm/year CONSEQUENCES cope with stormwater runoff  collection and treatment collection and treatment  disposal disposal manage severe floods threats  creation of 1 storage dam creation of 1 storage dam  development of wetlands and natural protections development of wetlands and natural protections INTEGRATE CHANGES IN CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES E.G. CLIMATE CHANGE 10/11 Impact on the status of water  simulation for 2015 with hydrological model Source of original map: Agence de l'Eau Seine-Normandie

11. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 SIMULATION OF WATER STATUS IN 2015 11/11 Conformity Non conformity + improvement Water status 2000-2015 (results with the model) Source of original map: Agence de l'Eau Seine-Normandie

12. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 GO FURTHER l Different types of variables to be examined when constructing the business as usual scenario l The role of public participation l Data to be gathered in task 1 l Recommended approach for task 2 l Key issues to examine during task 3 l Analysis of the sensibility of the simulations Derogation

13. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 DIFFERENT TYPES OF VARIABLES Source: WATECO Guidance (Accompanying document), p.115

14. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 THE ROLE OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION Source: WATECO Guidance (Accompanying document), p.129

15. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 DATA TO BE GATHERED IN TASK 1 Source: WATECO Guidance (Accompanying document), p.117

16. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 RECOMMENDED APPROACH FOR TASK 2 Source: WATECO Guidance (Accompanying document), p.123

17. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 KEY ISSUES TO EXAMINE DURING TASK 3 Source: WATECO Guidance (Accompanying document), p.127

18. Scenario 1995 2005 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE SENSIBILITY OF SIMULATIONS Parameters for which further investigation is needed are indicated in bold characters