1. 1 AN EXAMPLE CASE STUDY IN SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT TELKOM SCENARIOS

2. 2 TELKOM SCENARIOS DEVELOPMENT PROCESS l ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING l INFORMATION WORKSHOP l ENVIRONMENT REPORTS l SCENARIO WORKSHOP l SCENARIO LOGICS WORKSHOP l SCENARIO REVISION

3. 3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING PARTICIPANTS QUESTIONNAIRE Q POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT Q ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Q SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT Q TECHNOLOGY ENVIRONMENT Q NATURAL/PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT

4. 4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING PARTICIPANTS QUESTIONNAIRE W WHAT CHANGES & TRENDS, IMPORTANT TO TELKOM AND ITS BUSINESS, DO YOU OBSERVE? W WHAT DRIVE THESE CHANGES? WHAT FACTORS INTERACT TO PRODUCE THESE CHANGES? W WHAT IMPACT IS THIS LIKELY TO HAVE IN THE FUTURE? WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT? W...MORE

5. 5 ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING PARTICIPANTS QUESTIONNAIRE : WHICH HIGH IMPACT DEVELOPMENTS MAY UNFOLD IN FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, DEPENDING ON OUTCOME OF FUTURE EVENTS? (KEY UNCERTAINTIES) : WHICH OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE: -UNDER CONTROL OF TELKOM? -MAY BE INFLUENCED BY TELKOM? -NOT INFLUENCABLE NOR CONTROLLABLE? (RULES OF THE GAME)

6. 6 EXAMPLE SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT l TRENDS l IMPACT ON TELKOM » IMPLICATIONS » SUGGESTED STRATEGIES

7. 7 EXAMPLE SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT l TRENDS (E.G...): l DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS » GROWTH & COMPOSITION » OF POPULATION » GEOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION/MOBILITY » LANGUAGES » LAND OWNERSHIP » URBANISATION l EDUCATION & TRAINING l ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATISM l LABOUR TRENDS l ROLE OF CONSUMERISM l SOCIO POLITICAL

8. 8 EXAMPLE SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT l IMPACT ON TELKOM (E.G...) l MORE MIDDLE CLASS AREAS l INCREASED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE l RANGE OF SERVICE TYPES DEMANDED l INCREASED UNEMPLOYMENT l..... l POSSIBLE SOCIAL STRATEGY (E.G...) l INTERNAL MEDICAL SERVICES l PROVIDE SERVICES IN OTHER LANGUAGES l SUB-ECONOMIC SERVICE PROVISION l.....

9. 9 ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING PROCESS F QUESTIONNAIRE F WORKSHOP F ENVIRONMENTS REPORTS F PRESENTATIONS F KEY UNCERTAINTIES & RULES OF THE GAME

10. 10 KEY UNCERTAINTIES WORKGROUP SYNTHESIS l NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT? l.... l SOCIO-POLITICAL STABILITY l.... l ORIGIN, NATURE, STRENGTH, TIMING OF FUTURE COMPETITION l ROLE OF REGULATORY BODY l.... l (15)

11. SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT IN WORKGROUPS KEY UNCERTAINTIES RULES OF THE GAME INTERPRETATION SCENARIOS 1,2 & 3

12. 12 SCENARIOS EACH SCENARIO: l BASIC SCENARIO DESCRIPTION STORY RELATING OUTCOMES OF KEY UNCERTAINTIES l CHAIRMAN'S REPORT FOR 1997 UNDER SCENARIO l DAY IN THE LIFE OF:- KEY TELKOM EMPLOYEE KEY TELKOM STAKEHOLDER FOR 1997, UNDER SCENARIO.

13. 13 SCENARIOS RESULTS l SKELETON, FRAMEWORK SCENARIOS l OWNERSHIP, CREDIBILITY, UNDERSTANDING, IDENTIFICATION l QUALITY: LOW SCENARIO REFINEMENT

14. 14 TELKOM SCENARIO LOGICS FACTORS SHAPING CHANGE A DEGREE OF STABILITY IN SOCIO POLITICAL SPHERE: SCENARIO 1: HIGHER SCENARIO 2: LOWER B NEW GOVT. SOCIO-ECON. MNGMNT PHILOSOPHY: S1: OPEN & ENLIGHTENED S2: CLOSED & SOCIALISTIC C DEGREE OF REGULATION IN TELECOM. INDUSTRY: S1: LESS REGULATED S2: STRONGLY REGULATED MORE...

15. 15 TELKOM SCENARIO LOGICS FACTORS SHAPING CHANGE S...MORE: S METHOD OF EXACTING SATISFACTION OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT NEEDS: S1: HANDS OFF, INDIRECT S2: FORCED AND DIRECT S TELKOM'S ABILITY TO COPE WITH CHANGE: S1: COMPETENT S2: RESTRICTED

16. 16 TELKOM SCENARIO LOGIC DERIVED FROM SKELETON SCENARIOS 1. Degree of socio- political stability 2. Degree of philoso- phical enlightenment 4. Degree of directness of exacting need satisfaction 3. Degree of industry regulation 5. Competence in coping with change O O O O S S

17. 17 REVISED SCENARIOS ANALYSIS OF FACTORS l SOCIO-POLITICAL STABILITY l GOVERNMENT'S SOCIO- ECONOMIC PHILOSOPHY l TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY

18. 18 REVISED SCENARIOS SCENARIOS (2) ç STABILITY IN SOCIO-POLITICAL SPHERE ç NEW GOVERNMENT'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHY ç TELECOMMUNICATIONS REGULATORY SCENE ç METHOD OF SATISFYING SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT NEEDS ç TELKOM'S COPING WITH CHANGE HANDS OFF, LOW GEAR; REVERSE GEAR SCENARIOS

19. 19 TELKOM SCENARIOS THE RATIONALE FOR SCENARIOS.... THE PROBLEM WITH FORECASTS, NO MATTER HOW COMPLEX OR SOPHISTI- CATED, IS THAT THEY FAIL IN ANTICIPATING MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE ENVIRONMENT.....

20. 20 TELKOM SCENARIOS THE RATIONALE FOR SCENARIOS.... UNCERTAINTY TODAY IS NOT JUST AN OCCASIONAL TEMPORARY DEVIATION FROM PREDICTABILITY, IT IS A BASIC STRUCTURAL FEATURE OF THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT....

21. 21 TELKOM SCENARIOS THE RATIONALE FOR SCENARIOS END.... PLANNERS MAY WELL ACCEPT IT AND CONCENTRATE ON A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE FORCES AT WORK AND BETTER TESTING OF UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS.....

22. 22 And the point is? l Impact: Feeling good l Round two: “The demise of Telkom” – Feeling very worried l Impact & participation l Participation & scenario quality