1. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) Investigating transparent national-scale pathways consistent with the 2°C target Henri WAISMAN – Iddri henri.waisman@iddri.org

2. GENERAL PRINCIPLES

3. Objectives Understand and demonstrate how  individual countries can transition to a low-carbon economy  the world can meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target.  Benefits of the approach Credibility and appropriation by national stakeholders Structured and detailed dialogue btw countries on transformations Articulation between short-term and long-term National and global enabling conditions  Challenges of the appraoch National-scale analysis / global-scale constraints Expert-based, policy-relevant assessment / model forecasts

4. Organization  An initiative of IDDRI and SDSN – 15 countries (70% of 2010 CO2 emissions)  15 Country Research Teams acting independently of their governments  Expert-based judgments  Country-scale models  Policy relevance

5. Approach Elaborate national, bottom-up and long-term decarbonization pathways towards the 2°C target (DDPs)  Development & mitigation pathways  national circumstances : socio-economic conditions, development priorities, infrastructure stocks, resource endowments …  Transparent pathways  sectorally disaggregated and explicit transformations  A backcasting approach to 2050  address the tension btw initial situation and LT demanding target

6. Methodology  « What are the internally coherent national pathways that can satisfy the D&M objectives? » No ex-ante allocation of the 2°C target 2050 vision as guidelines for the design of pathways = development goals + benchmarks on national emissions Several pathways to 2050  Iterative approach for the elaboration of national DDPs Adjusting progressively the pathways in function of the D&M targets by discussing the building blocks of the transformations

7. Methodology  « What is the content of the transformation? » Informed by expert-based assessments Mobilize bottom-up expertise Dialogue with policymakers Comprehensive stories Quantification of D&M drivers across sectors  Detailed and structured representation of national DDPs « Dashboard » = Quantified, transparent & internally coherent transformations

8. Full 1st phase report available at www.deepdecarbonization.org

9. THE WAY FORWARD

10. The next phase of DDPP (mid-2015)  Elaborate on the national decarbonization pathways  Revised technical and structural assumptions  Emission reductions as an output  Analyze in further details  the twin objectives of development and deep decarbonization;  the socio-economic aspects of deep decarbonization;  national and international financial requirements;  the mapping of enabling conditions (incl policy framework) and disabling conditions (risks of lock-in, obstacles for implementation)

11. What role for 2050 DDPs in a global climate deal? The complementarity between DDPs and INDCs  INDCs to 2025/2030 vs. DDPs in 2050  Long-term pathways give benchmarks for thinking short-term targets  Heterogeneous/partial content of INDCs vs. society-wide and transparent DDPs  Shared vision of the content of transformations behind INDCs  Legally binding INDCs vs. Informative, Non-binding DDPs  Continuation of discussions after 2015