1. IDENTIFYING THE ROLE OF CROP PRODUCTION IN LAND COVER CHANGE IN BRAZIL SINCE 1990 Elizabeth Barona A. Supervisor: Navin Ramankutty – Glenn Hyman Committee: Oliver Coomes – Raja Sengupta Geography Department - McGill University August 3 - 2007

2. Introduction The expanding global market is changing the agricultural landscape of Brazil

3. Introduction Concerns:  Potential displacement of small farmers  Increased pressure to clear additional lands for food production or grazing  Competition for agricultural land  Increasing deforestation rates (Geller and Goldenberg 2000) Source: (Geller and Goldenberg 2000)

4. Introduction Study Area Brazil’s territory ~ 850 Potentially cultivatable land 320 Cultivated land – all crops 60 Million hectares Source: ESRI - IBGE Source: Minister of Agriculture - Brazil

5. Research Question What is the role of different crops in changing land cover in Brazil since 1990?  How have the geographic patterns of crops in Brazil changed since 1990?  Which crops are driving the change and why?  In which physiographic context has this expansion occurred, and which ecosystems are being affected?

6. Methods  Spatial analysis of agricultural census and survey statistics at municipality level since 1990.  Analysis of trade data to identify importance of trade versus domestic consumption  Joint spatial analysis of crop distribution maps and physiographic data (climate, soils, topographic, agro ecological zones, vegetation and infrastructure)

7.  Agricultural Census data and national surveys  Census data 1996  IBGE data from 1990 to present Data sources  Trade data  FAOSTAT, USDA, UNICA  Physiographic data  IBGE, TRMM, FAO

8. Preliminary Results

9. Objective 1  Conduct GIS analysis to produce time series maps of crop distribution Global data of agriculture area and production (You and Wood 2006; Leff et al 2004). Crop distribution

10.  IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geographic and Statistics) - national survey Data Processing Administrative Units:  5 Regions  27 States  5563 municipalities

11. Crop Production

12. Brazil - Crop Distribution 1990 - 2005 Source: IBGE 1990 1995 2000 2005

13. 1990–20051990–2005 11.3 – 11.5 Million ha 3.94 – 3.91 Million ha

14. 1990–20051990–2005 4.6 – 3.7 Million ha 1.93 –1.90 Million ha

15. 1990–20051990–2005 4.2– 5.8 Million ha 11.4 – 22.9 Million ha

16. Change in Area Change in percent of total crop area SOYBEAN 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 5

17. SUGARCANE 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 5 Change in Area Change in percent of total crop area

18. Objective 2 - Trade  Understand the driving factors behind new crop expansion Drivers of crop expansion in Brazil: - Financial support from the agro-industry sector - Trade liberalization (i.e waivers, tax, subsidies) - International agreements (WTO – World Trade Organization)

19. Soybean Sugar Increasing global demand Source: UNICA - 2004 Source: Greenpace - 2005

20. Soybean Source: FAOSTAT-2006 Domestic = Production - Export Soybean Exports Soybean three markets: - Soybean - Soy oil - Soy meal

21. Soybean Exports Source: FAOSTAT - 2006

22. Soybean Exports Source data: FAOSTAT - 2005

23. Sugarcane Production Source: Outlook report - 2005 Sugar Exports Sugarcane three markets: Raw sugar, Refined sugar BioethanolSugar37%63%Ethanol85%15% Sugarcane61%39% Domestic Export Sugarcane 2004 - 2005 Source: UNICA - 2005

24. Sugarcane - Exports Source: UNICA-2006

25. Objective 3  Understand the physiographic context and ecosystem impacts of the crop expansion

26. The next step

27. Preliminary Conclusion  Expansion of certain crops such as sugar cane and soybean is causing a northward shift (and sometimes decreases) of other crops.  Global demand has an important impact on cropland expansion in Brazil.  Important ecosystems like Amazonia or Atlantic forest would be affected by cropland expansion  Continued work on spatial analysis of crop distribution and analysis of impacts

28. Thank you!