1. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 SREPS Priority Project: final report C. Marsigli, A. Montani, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM - HydroMeteorological Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy F. Gofa, P. Louka HNMS – Hellenic National Meteorological Service, Athens, Greece

2. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 This presentation is complemented by the posters: On the impact of varying the value of a set of COSMO model parameters for short-range predictions. C. Marsigli, A. Montani, and T. Paccagnella COSMO SREPS verification over Greece P. louka, F. Gofa and T Charantonis

3. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 Outline  Brief recall about the COSMO-SREPS methodology & system set-up  Analysis of the results on MAP D-PHASE OP  Multi Model ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations  Relationship between error and spread  Conclusions

4. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 COSMO-SREPS methodology  i.c. and b.c. perturbations -> INM multi-model multi- boundary ensemble (SREPS)  LAM perturbations -> physics parameter perturbations COSMO model perturbations - smaller scale errors driving model perturbations (ics and bcs) - larger scale errors

5. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 INM SREPS 25 km COSMO SREPS 10 km COSMO DE EPS 2.8 km

6. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 COSMO at 25 km on IFS IFS – ECMWF global by INM Spain COSMO at 25 km on GME GME – DWD global COSMO at 25 km on UM UM – UKMO global COSMO at 25 km on GFS GFS – NCEP global

7. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 System set-up 16 COSMO runs 10 km hor. res. 40 vertical levels COSMO at 25 km on IFS IFS – ECMWF global by INM Spain COSMO at 25 km on GME GME – DWD global COSMO at 25 km on UM UM – UKMO global COSMO at 25 km on GFS GFS – NCEP global P1: control (ope) P2: conv. scheme (KF) P3: tur_len=1000 P4: pat_len=10000 00 UTC JJA=53 SON=54

8. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 run nr.parameter nameparameter descriptionrangedefaultused 1 ctrl ope 2 lconv convection scheme T or KFTKF 3 tur_len maximal turbulent length scale [100,1000] m500150 4 tur_len maximal turbulent length scale [100,1000] m5001000 5 pat_len length scale of thermal surface patterns [0,10000] m50010000 6 rat_sea ratio of laminar scaling factors for heat over [1,100]201 7 rat_sea ratio of laminar scaling factors for heat over [1,100]2060 8 qc0 cloud water threshold for autoconversion [0.,0.001]00.001 9 10 11 12 13 c_lnd surface area density of the roughness elements over land [1,10]21 14 c_lnd surface area density of the roughness elements over land [1,10]210 15 rlam_heat scaling factor of the laminar layer depth [0.1,10]10.1 16 rlam_heat scaling factor of the laminar layer depth [0.1,10]110 crsmin c_soil Minimal stomata resistance150 1 12 0 50 200Minimal stomata resistance Surface area index of the evaporating soil [50,200] s/m ]0,c_lnd[

9. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 testing period COSMO-SREPS was running regularly during the MAP D-PHASE DOP, at 00 UTC

10. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 HNMS Verification (06-12/2007) Domain: Greece  Data used: SYNOP data covering Greece  Parameters verified: o2m temperature oMean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) oPrecipitation Deterministic indeces Probabilistic indeces Verification JJA 2007 SON 2007 Domain: Alpine region Data used:  COSMO data  Synop data  COSMO I7 analyses Analysis of:  Multi Model ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations Z500/ t850/ T2m Precipitation Deterministic indeces Probabilistic indeces  Relationship between error and spread ARPA-SIM

11. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 HNMS Verification (06-12/2007) Domain: Greece  Data used: SYNOP data covering Greece  Parameters verified: o2m temperature oMean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) oPrecipitation Deterministic indeces Probabilistic indeces Verification JJA 2007 SON 2007 Domain: Alpine region Data used:  COSMO data  Synop data  COSMO I7 analyses Analysis of:  Multi Model ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations Z500/ t850/ T2m Precipitation Deterministic indeces Probabilistic indeces  Relationship between error and spread ARPA-SIM

12. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 Obs. Network used by ARPA-SIM SON=54 runsJJA=53 runs COSMO observations 218 synop stations on the Alpine area

13. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 Greek SYNOP stations

14. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 Some remarks…. Alpine Region and Greece ! Two regions very different but both complex! Different climatology few and less intense precip. events in Greece (this is why Dec has been included for Greece) summer 2007 very very hot in Greece

15. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 intra-group distance Z500 COSMO analysis JJA 2007 - 50 days SON 2007 - 49 days Same driving model Different model parameters Same model parameters Different driving model MultiModel ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations

16. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 intra-group distance Z500 COSMO analysis JJA 2007 - 50 days SON 2007 - 49 days Same driving model Different model parameters Same model parameters Different driving model MultiModel ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations T850 COSMO analysis C Different driving models play the major role

17. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 intra-group distance 2mT Northern Italy JJA 2007 - 50 daysSON 2007 - 49 days MultiModel ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations Same model parameters Different driving model

18. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 As regards 2mT no big impact of physics parameter perturbations over Greece MultiModel ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations

19. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 SYNOP over D-PHASE area - Nearest grid point JJA07SON07 2m T - relationship between error and spread COSMO I7 analysis  error vs spread Underdispersive

20. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 spread/skill relationship 2mT Alpine area (synop stations) +12h+24h+36h +48h+60h+72h Reasonable even if Underdispersive

21. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008

22. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 spread/skill relationship t850 Alpine area (COSMO analyses) Improvement with the time range +12h+24h+36h +48h+60h+72h

23. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 2m temperature - BIAS JJA07 Northern Italy ecmwf gme ncep ukmo IFS GME NCEP UKMO All period Greece The two regions are very different!! p4

24. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 2m Temperature by months Underestimation of summer temperatures  June 2007 was exceptionally warm with strong heat waves  The maximum temperature in Athens reached 46.2 ºC ! October to December RMSE statistically acceptable. Different pattern between summer and autumn/winter months Strong dependency on the season !

25. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 2m Temperature by months Underestimation of summer temperatures  June 2007 was exceptionally warm with strong heat waves  The maximum temperature in Athens reached 46.2 ºC ! October to December RMSE statistically acceptable. Different pattern between summer and autumn/winter months Strong dependency on the season !

26. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 2m Temperature By Member Underestimation of Temperature. It seems that GME driven members have better skill than the others. IFS GME NCEP UKMO

27. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 GME seems to give a better performance regarding t2m (near surface parameter)

28. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 2m temperature - BIAS Synop observations over Alpine area Nearest grid point – lsm + altitude correction JJA07 ecmwf gme ncep ukmo p4

29. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 2m temperature - MAE Synop observations over Alpine area Nearest grid point – lsm + altitude correction JJA07 ecmwf gme ncep ukmo p4

30. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 2m temperature - BIAS Synop observations over Alpine area Nearest grid point – lsm + altitude correction SON07 ecmwf gme ncep ukmo p4

31. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 2m temperature - MAE Synop observations over Alpine area Nearest grid point – lsm + altitude correction SON07 ecmwf gme ncep ukmo p4

32. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 TP 24h – ave 0.5x0.5 JJA07 +30h noss 1400 700 400 150 50 IT + CH +54h Same driving models Same perturbation Big impact of multi model BCs!!!!!!! Looking at the right column it is evident that even with few members the skill does not decrease too much when the driving models are different. Same perturbation

33. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 TP 24h – ave 0.5x0.5 JJA07 +30h noss 1400 700 400 150 50 IT + CH +54h Same driving models Same perturbation Big impact of multi model BCs!!!!!!! Looking at the right column it is evident that even with few members the skill does not decrease too much when the driving models are different. Same perturbation

34. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 TP 24h – ave 0.5x0.5 noss 800 500 300 100 50 SON07 +30h IT + CH +54h Same driving model Same perturbation

35. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 Same driving model Same Phys. Pert. Greece KF better but!!

36. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 POD & FAR plots (6hr acc prec- Greece) Same driving modelSame Phys. Pert. IFS GME NCEP UKMO Tiedtke1 Kain-Fritsch1 Tiedtke2 Tiedtke3 Greece

37. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 Deterministic scores – ave 0.5 x 0.5 IT pert 1mm/24h5mm/24h10mm/24h

38. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 JJA07SON07 pert father +30hIT + CH Season dependent

39. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 JJA07 +30h ITIT + CH Same driving model Same perturbation

40. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 Test of more parameter perturbations (same father) 16 LM runs at 10 km P1: control (ope) P2: conv. scheme (KF) P3: parameter 1 P4: parameter 2 P5: … IFS – ECMWF global SON 07 On the impact of varying the value of a set of COSMO model parameters for short-range predictions. C. Marsigli, A. Montani, and T. Paccagnella

41. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 T2m deterministic scores – npo IT ctrl KF tur_len=150 tur_len=1000 pat_len=10000 rat_sea=1 rat_sea=60 qc0=0.001 crsmin=50 crsmin=200 c_soil=0 c_soil=2 c_lnd=1 c_lnd=10 rlam_heat=0.1 rlam_heat=10

42. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 T2m deterministic scores – npo IT ctrl KF tur_len=150 tur_len=1000 pat_len=10000 rat_sea=1 rat_sea=60 qc0=0.001 crsmin=50 crsmin=200 c_soil=0 c_soil=2 c_lnd=1 c_lnd=10 rlam_heat=0.1 rlam_heat=10

43. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 Conclusions Alpine Region and Greece ! Two regions very different but both complex! Different climatology

44. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 Conclusions (Temperature and geopotential)  Perturbations -Multi Model ICs/BCs & Perturbations on Ph. Params:  the perturbing of model parameters produce a detectable spread among members but  the use of different driving models seems to dominate with respect to physics parameter perturbations as regards the contribution to the spread; these contributions are different in the two seasons (2mT)  As regards the performance of the different driving models there is a strong dependence on forecast range, season, verification area

45. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008  Perturbations -Multi Model ICs/BCs & Perturbations on Ph. Params:  the perturbing of model parameters produce a detectable spread among members but  the use of different driving models seems to dominate with respect to physics parameter perturbations as regards the contribution to the spread  As regards the performance of the different driving models there is a strong dependence on forecast range, season, verification area Conclusions (Temperature and geopotential)

46. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008  spread-skill relationship : a correlation between error and spread exists, but the system is under-dispersive -> a more comprehensive representation of model error will improve spread Conclusions (Temperature and geopotential)

47. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 Conclusions (precipitation) the use of different driving models seems to dominate with respect to physics parameter perturbations as regards the contribution to the spread It is not evident a systematic relationship between the quality of the precipitation forecast and ICs/BCs provided by a specific global model Perturbations of the convective schemes are more important than the perturbations of the particular parameters for turbulent and length scales used It seems that the members with Kain-Fritsch convective scheme have better resolution they overestimate precipitation more than Tiedtke scheme Precipitation amount is generally overestimated

48. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 On-going activities and future plans  continue the analysis over the DOP MAP D-PHASE :  statistical analysis of the system  comparison with the other available mesoscale ensemble systems (D-PHASE activity)  verification carried out by HNMS  introduce the new parameter perturbations (after an analysis of their impact also in summer)  analyse the impact of adding soil perturbations consens

49. SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 Last FTEs of Chiara were used for this TASK ROMEO