1. Arctic Ice Melt A Study of Sea Ice Variability in the Northwest Passage: Implications for Ship Navigation Larin M. Lash, Mike L. Harrington, Evan P. Menkhus

2. Arctic Ice Melt A Study of Sea Ice Variability in the Northwest Passage: Implications for Ship Navigation Larin M. Lash, Mike L. Harrington, Evan P. Menkhus Introduction

3. A Long Awaited Trade Route Huge Global Significance (London to Tokyo, 14670 to < 8000 mi) The Five Players

4. Introduction 2010 G-7 Summit in Iqaluit, Canada Canada’s Continental Shelf Claim Military Bases & Seaport $7 Billion for ice breakers / patrol vessels

5. Introduction “ The first principle of sovereignty is either use it, or lose it. “ Steven Harper, Canadian Prime Minister Canada’s resolute attitude “ It’s one of our government’s priorities, the assertion of our sovereignty in the Arctic “ Jim Flaherty, Finance Minister Russia and the United States, the Bering Strait Greenland (Denmark)

6. Introduction Arctic Ice changed in 2007 Climate trends Clouds / Albedo Sept. 2010

7. Introduction Study Objective: To utilize satellite imagery to determine if Arctic ice is melting at a predictable or measurable rate that can be used to forecast the annual presence of ice in the Northwest Passage, possibly providing its controlling countries with a new global trade route.

8. The Study Area

9. Methods

14. The Results Image Analysis Data DateIceWater% Ice% Water%∆ Change in Ice 8/20/1992 8034263181549681.6%18.4% 8/29/1995 1477396848516814.8%85.2%-66.7% 8/31/1996 2571503739104725.8%74.2%11.0% 9/1/1999 1312052861143213.2%86.8%1312052 9/3/2000 3824971602245938.8%61.2%25.6% 9/22/2001 6408301355425464.3%35.7%25.5% 9/7/2010 3654191628881036.8%63.2%-27.6% Study period: 1992 – 2010

15. The Results

16. Conclusion 1973 – 2010 Imagery Cloud cover issues Our findings

17. Future Studies Recommendations Passive Microwave Imagery Incorporation of additional data

18. Questions? ?