1. International conference Соціально-демографічні зрушення: чинники та перспективи, 17-18 грудня 2013 року, Київ, Україна Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions in Lithuania in the context of low fertility and economic instability Vlada Stankūnienė Demographic Research Centre, Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania and Lithuanian Social Research Centre

2. STATISTICAL DATA: Lithunian statistics Human fertility data base EUROSTAT SURVEYS: Main (international): Generations and Gender Survey, 1 st wave (GGS1), Lithuania, 2006 Generations and Gender Survey, 2nd wave (GGS2), Lithuania 2009 Additional/ comparative: International: Fertility and Family Survey (FFS), Lithuania, 1994/95 Population Policy Acceptance Study (PPA), in Lithuania 2001 National: Needs of Family Policy (FP), 2010 DATA, SOURCES

3. SURVEYS: 18-49 Total FP, 2010 1000 1000 GGS2, Lithuania 2009 5000 8000 GGS1, Lithuania, 2006 6300 10000 PPA, in Lithuania 2001 900 1500 FFS, Lithuania, 1994/95 5000 5000 DATA, SOURCES, No

4. Source: Lithuanian statistics TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, Lithuania, 1990-2012

5. 2,1 1,5 1,3 Source: Lithuanian statistics TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, Lithuania, 1990-2012

6. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE: Eastern and Central European countries Sources: Eurostat 2010; Federal 2010; Naselenie 1988; Otchiot 2009; Recent 2004; State 2010; Demografijos, 2013 PTFR

7. Sources: Eurostat 2010; Federal 2010; Naselenie 1988; Otchiot 2009; Recent 2004; State 2010; Statistikos 2011 PSGR TOTAL FERTILITY RATE: Western European countries PTFR X

8. Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, Lithuania, 1960-2012 FDT, end SDT, beginning 2-2,2 X

9. Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base Age-specific fertility rates, Lithuania X

10. Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base Age-specific fertility rates, Lithuania

11. Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base Age-specific fertility rates, Lithuania

12. Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base Age-specific fertility rates, Lithuania, 1990-2012

13. Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base Total fertility rate and mean age at first birth

14. Source: Human fertility data base; Bongaarts,Feeney, 2010, 1998 Total fertility rate and adjusted total fertility rate X

15. Sources: FFS, GGS_2006, GGS_2009, PPA_2001; FP_2010 Desired number of children 18-49

16. Sources: GGS_2006, GGS_2009, PPA_2001; FP_2010 Fertility intentions 18-49

17. Sources: FFS, GGS_2006, GGS_2009, PPA_2001; FP_2010 Number of children: desired and intended to have 18-49 X

18. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions (1) I. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions by gender: Differences between fertility intentions of men and women are considerable different Changes of fertility intentions trajectory in economic fluctuation are different II. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions by age: Decline in fertility intention among youngest is more evident (men and women). During economic decline reaction of youngest (men/women) is most expressed III. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions by education: Highest fertility intentions among the men with university education. Fertility intentions of men with higher education are not affected even by economic fluctuations Among women, differences of fertility intentions by education is not very expressed even in economic downturn

19. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions (2) IV. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions by employment: Fertility intentions of employed men are highest irrespective of the economic situation Among women, differences of fertility intentions by employment status is not very expressed even during economic fluctiuations V. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions by residence: The highest differences (men/ women, especially men) are by residence Vilnius, capital of Lithuania stands out, conspicuously, by the highest fertility intention indicators (men/ women). Sub-populations of small and middle towns are most affected by unfavourable conditions especially in economic instability

20. Sources: GGS_2006, GGS_2009, FP_2010 Fertility intentions: number of children by age of respondent 20-49

21. Sources: GGS_2006, GGS_2009, FP_2010 Fertility intentions: number of children by education of respondent 20-49

22. Fertility intentions: number of children by employment of respondent 20-49

23. Vilnius Sources: GGS_2006, GGS_2009, FP_2010 Fertility intentions: number of children by residence of respondent 20-49

24. Fertility intentions: number of children by marital status of respondent 20-49 X

25. Factors Odds ratio Exp(B) 20062009 MenWomenMenWomen Age 20-24 1111 25-29 0,536**0,7610,572*0,428** 30-34 0,205***0,202***0,267***0,133*** 35–39 0,070***0,045***0,063***0,042*** Education Higher1111 Secondary 1,0360,8191,3140,537** Lower than secondary 0,6761,2080,415**0,369 Residence >10 0001111 10 001–100 000 1,0320,6030,7750,892 100 001–500 000 1,1820,9580,616*0,792 Vilnius 3,733***5,356***1,892*2,278* Estimations of household’s total monthly income: is household able to make ends meet Very easily + easily0,8790,8361,8921,503 Fairly easily1,3270,6042,541***1,133 With some difficulty 1,1640,476 * 1,5291,292 With great difficulty + with difficulty 1111 Significance level: * 5 (per 100), ** 1 (per 100) ir *** 1 (per 1000). Factors of intentions to have two children. 20-39 years old childless respondents Highest differences: By residence – men/women By education – men Wellbeing of household -men

26. Source: Lithuanian statistics Dynamic of total fertility rate and change of gross domestic product

27. THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION