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WP220 – Marine ecosystems and fisheries Tony Beeching Cefas
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Objectives Use WP110 outputs to examine future impact on fish biology, distribution and availability to fleets Examine impact on ecosystem and fishery productivity Examine economic implications
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Task 1 - Review Define current situation Identify appropriate models (biology, ecosystem) Identify best data
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Task 2 – Condition models Ensure models are as realistic as possible Use historical data identified in task 1 Note issues projecting models beyond range of biology/ecology seen in the past
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Task 3 – Fish stock distribution Impact of climate on distribution –Implications for fishers, economics, etc. Propose use of climate envelopes (Cheung et al.) Produce future distributions (and potentially catch)
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Task 4 – Impacts on fish biology Impact of climate on growth/reproduction/mortality Use simulation approaches (e.g. Kell et al.) Examine future sustainability under climate change (species specific)
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Task 5 – Impacts on ecosystem Use Ecopath to force existing ecosystem models under climate change –Primary productivity? –Fishing scenarios? Give overview of potential ecosystem impacts
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Task 6 - Economics Examine potential impacts –Fish quantities –Fish availability Note issues with future pricing etc. Implications of alternative scenarios
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Deliverables Review Conditioned models Scientific papers: –Impacts on fish distribution –Impacts on biology of specific species –Impacts on ecosystem
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Links with other WP How we link is a critical consideration Although no topic areas should be avoided, we may need to identify/triage primary links. We have been concerned with inputs to our WPs but equally we need to consider our outputs (WP3). Identify key contact persons (for Cefas – Graham.Pilling)
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Issues to consider At what date shall we set the baseline (retrospective ~ to show long term patterns and trends?) (status quo) What is the time series for future projections e.g. 2050 or 2100? ….or a dec C rise for projection scenarios? What is the spatial scale of outputs from WP1 (e.g. 0.5 deg square) Format of data (file type, size) – implications if need for conversion (processing time and resources) (potential error) How will we share data/informationSpecific outputs
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