1. 1 Projections and Total Effect of Measures: The Swiss experience Contents 1. The Swiss energy scenarios - Methodology - Institutional arrangements 2. Other projections 3. What‘s new? 4. Problems in the last communication 5. How we try to solve them 6. General issues UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications, Bonn, 28.2 - 2.3. 2001 INFRAS, on behalf of Swiss Federal Office of Environment, Forests and Landscape Markus Maibach

2. 2 The Swiss energy scenarios: Methodology  Aim: Aggregate basis for energy policy monitoring  Assumptions based on Swiss general scenarios (population, economic development etc.)  Bottom up data, specific model based forecasting  Specific measures are treated on an aggregate level  Transport is treated separately (based on specific traffic forecasts)  1990 to 2030 (1990 not temperature adjusted)  Basis for CO2-projections for energy related sources

3. 3 The scenarios  Scenario I: Adopted measures (cons. measures based on legislation and reasonable implementation  Scenario II: Proposed measures (cons. measures which are on the official political agenda) high probability to be adopted 2a/2b: Different intension of measures (esp. energy production and pricing options)  Scenario III: Measures under consideration (cons. Measures which are proposed by popular initiatives) failed in the meantime  Scenario IV: Optimised goal oriented measures Least cost approach towards CO2-targets

4. 4 Major Assumptions

5. 5 Results

6. 6 Institutional arrangements  Federal ministry of environment, transport, energy and telecommunication is leading the process  Coordination with other ministries (population and economic development), as an input  Federal office of energy has contracted private institutes (permanent procedure)  Service for transport studies is in charge of transport forecasts  Federal office of environment (FOEFL) is involved  Updating procedure: Problem driven, based on policy changes

7. 7 Other projections  Decentralised process, based on emission and input data No specific institutional arrangements FOEFL is leading agency  Most important: Air pollution emission forecasts, for transport and other sectors, mainly only considering adopted measures  Scenarios available for agriculture, at least for the main input data, depending on the development of the Swiss agriculture policy (In charge: Swiss federal office of agriculture)

8. 8 What‘s new?  Updated scenario 1 for all energy related sources (Adopted measures, considering the Swiss transport policy changes)  Adopted CO2-legislation (target oriented) is not considered yet  Scenario 3 (cons. popular initiatives of energy taxation) obsolete  New transport emission forecast (all GHG emissions and precursors)  Very good monitoring data (effects) of energy policy measures

9. 9 Problems occured during the review  Switzerland has no ‚without measures scenario‘.  The ‚with measures scenario‘ differs from inventory data, due to temperature adjustment and other minor issues.$  The effect of measures is only possible on a disaggregated level (individual impact studies)  Historic trend extrapolation for other sources as the main methodological input.

10. 10 How we treat these problems?  A new basis for the scenario ‚adopted measures‘ with improved data quality  Since we implemented new measures, there is a chance to show a general effect of new measure, by comparing with the old scenario 1.  Better use of impact studies (transport sector, energy measures, based on monitoring reports) to show the effect of measures.  Illustration of possible implementation paths of our CO2- legislation.

11. 11 Issues for discussion  What is an ‚adopted‘ measure? Depends very much on the interpretation of legislation  It is important to show uncertainties and range of possibilities properly  Effect of measures: Bottom up aggregation is not equal to a general BAU- scenario (methodological inconsistencies)  Clear and transparent reference to impact studies, qualititative aggregate statement  Internal update procedure and UNFCCC requests: How to optimise synergies? ‚wrong official data‘ versus ‚true‘ inofficial data  Show the officiality, and report progress within the reviews