1. GIFS-FDP Introduction to Framework Plan and links with SWFDP Richard Swinbank & Zoltan Toth

2. GIFS-{FDP?} It is not proposed that the GIFS-TIGGE WG itself run regional forecast development projects, but instead interacts with regional projects under the auspices of SWFDP, along with other pilot projects (FDPs and RDPs), to evaluate the benefits of prototype GIFS products. “GIFS-FDP” should support FDPs, not be an FDP in its own right. We need to think of another name, but will still call the activity “GIFS-FDP” for now.

3. GIFS-FDP - Introduction WWRP Forecast Demonstration Projects have been instrumental in introducing research advances into operational forecasting practices. GIFS-FDP is designed to transition THORPEX R&D into the operational community. New products will be designed tested & evaluated in conjunction with the CBS Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and other pilot projects. As a transition activity, GIFS-FDP will interact closely with both WWRP-THORPEX and operational forecasting activities. GIFS-FDP defines an overall framework. Regional subproject plans will be developed to address specific needs of each region in a “bottom-up” manner.

4. GIFS-TIGGE roadmap The THORPEX implementation plan envisages the establishment of a Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) to realise the benefits of THORPEX in operational forecasting. We envisage 3 main stages: –TIGGE (2005 onwards) – scientific research based on archive of ensemble forecasts. –GIFS Development (2008-2012) – development and evaluation of products & services based on ensemble forecast data –GIFS Implementation (after 2012) – implementation of real-time products and services. “End to end” GIFS. GIFS-FDP is focused on stage 2 – the next steps Longer-term developments depend on benefits demonstrated in GIFS-FDP

5. GIFS Forecast Demonstration Project (GIFS-FDP) Objectives: –To develop and test prototypes for forecasting various high impact events. –To evaluate the prototype products in an operational environment for a limited time period (1-2 years+) –To transition successful products into ongoing operations Collaboration with the CBS SWFDP, and other regional initiatives. –Focus on regional subprojects: Southern Africa, SW Pacific; possible future projects in S. America, S Asia/ Indian subcontinent. –Use regional cascade infrastructure set up for SWFDP –GIFS-FDP products will supplement products distributed by SWFDP, once regional SWFDP subproject is well-established –Training on the use of these products

6. GIFS-FDP interactions GIFS-FDP SWFDP Southern Africa SW Pacific Future subprojects NW Pacific TC Project Other pilot projects Joint Working Group On Verification GIFS-TIGGE Working group THORPEX Regional committees Research community Operational forecast community Other THORPEX and WWRP WGs WWRP SERA WG

7. Enhancements to SWFDP Compared with the products available currently in the existing SWFDP programme, GIFS-FDP can add: –Scientifically driven development of new types of products to highlight forecasts of severe weather; –Products based on multi-model ensembles; –Statistically bias corrected and downscaled information; –Longer range outlooks including week-2 forecasts for planning and mitigation efforts related to possible future high-impact weather events. While SWFDP includes subjective assessments by forecasters, GIFS-FDP will also entail objective verification by regional & national centres.

8. 8 Products for high-impact weather -TCs In response to IWTC, the GIFS-TIGGE working group initiated the exchange of real-time tropical cyclone track predictions using “Cyclone XML” format, starting with T-PARC (Summer 2008) The exchange of TC forecasts is being continued in support of GIFS-FDP Possible TC products –Strike probability maps (65Nml / 75ml / 120km) –Strike probability time series at specific locations –Intensity – max wind (how to define?) following cyclone –Rainfall intensity following cyclone

9. 9 Products for heavy rainfall GIFS-TIGGE WG identified precipitation as the next high priority focus for GIFS development More challenging logistics than tropical cyclone problem –Data volume – real-time exchange much more challenging –Need to take into account eventual WIS/GTS requirements (e.g. formats) when developing products –Need for data sets for calibration & verification Products based on p(precip. > threshold) –From global TIGGE, focus on 6h accumulations / large scale, but scope to do some downscaling –With regional models scope for short-range forecasts of hourly rainfall at catchment scale –EFI approach is potentially useful from global models Additional interest in gridded products for forecasting strong winds