1. Objective Evaluation of the Meso-NH Simulations during Hibiscus-Troccinox-Troccibras I.Forecasts for the TROCCINOX campaign II.Three case studies: 13 Feb, 24 Feb, 3 March J.-P Chaboureau, J.-P. Cammas, J. Duron, F. Gheusi, C. Mari, P. J. Mascart, J.-P. Pinty Laboratoire d’Aérologie (UPS/CNRS) Toulouse, France

2. I. Forecasts for the Campaign Daily real-time runs from 27 January to 5 March 2004 posted on http://www.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh/troccinox One single domain horizontal grid: 100 x 100 points at 30 km resolution 72 levels: from 40 m (bottom) up to 600 m (top) Physics turbulence: CBR TKE 1D scheme convection: Bechtold’s scheme microphysics: Pinty-Jabouille surface: ISBA radiation: ECMWF Initialization/coupling with ECMWF forecasts Lagrangian tracers Simulated GOES-E brightness temperature (Tb) 3000 km

3. Model-to-satellite Approach GOES-E 11  m Tb Meso-NH SUBG with cloud fraction=f(Q 1 ) +24 h Meso-NH CTRL without cloud fraction 11  m Tb 00 UTC 24 Feb Direct comparison Cloud top height

4. 13-14 Feb Falcon+SF2 30-day Objective Evaluation Full domain 3000x3000 km 2 Bauru area 150x150 km 2 24 Feb SF4 3-4 March Falcon IR Tb Correlation IR Tb

5. Diurnal Cycle over Bauru Area 30-day average Bauru area 150x150 km 2 Precipitation IR TbSurface Flux CAPE/CIN

6. Time Evolution over Bauru Bauru area 150x150 km 2 min(TB)<205 KMin(TB)<205 K Precipitation IR Tb CAPE

7. Time-Longitude Diagram Data averaged within  75 km around Bauru Precipitation % of Tb<205KGOES-E TbMeso-NH Tb

8. II. Three Case Studies Preliminary work for three cases: - 13-14 Feb, 24-25 Feb, and 3-4 March Same setup as for the forecasts (  x=30 km), but: – coupling with analyses (instead of ECMWF forecast) – use of the subgrid cloud scheme Comparisons with: - Meteosat Second Generation observations - Falcon and SF2/4 measurements

9. Comparison with MSG at 10.8  m Meteosat-8 Meso-NH 00 UTC 14 Feb00 UTC 25 Feb00 UTC 4 March

10. Comparison with MSG at 3.9  m Meteosat-8 Meso-NH 00 UTC 14 Feb00 UTC 25 Feb00 UTC 4 March

11. Comparison with Falcon Flights 48 h Meso-NH run 36 h Meso-NH run Falcon flight 1719- 2055 UTC 3 March 1650- 2015 UTC 14 Feb Data from DLR

12. Comparison with SF2 and SF4 13-14 Feb. Data from G. Durry (CNRS) 24-25 Feb.

13. Conclusions I.Forecasts for the TROCCINOX campaign better agreement with satellite observation when using the subgrid cloud scheme diurnal cycle of precip. in advance by 3 hours Deep convection events with Tb<205K more frequent during cold front episodes II.Three case studies encouraging results when comparing with satellite and in-situ observations