1. 1 European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation Jan Van Doorn Director EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre April 2006 ASAS / ADS-B: Implementation & Future Research

2. 2 Two thoughts about ASAS / ADS-B … “We are not implementing fast enough” “We are not preparing the future”

3. 3 A quotation from a Member of UK Parliament Mr Tom Brake (UK) … “May I ask the Minister a slightly more detailed question about the technology? I understand that there are air traffic control systems that could be based on individual aircraft and how they relate to one another. My understanding is that SESAR will not take that route. If I am correct, is there not a risk that in future Europe will be lumbered with an air traffic control system that is five or 10 years behind the best technology solution?”

4. 4 Need to Implement Integrated Future Research Summary

5. 5 Need to Implement: What have we got today? US: starting to implement – ADS-B surveillance, spacing applications Australia: starting to implement – ADS-B surveillance Europe: CASCADE: ADS-B out, situation awareness … But, a lot of research over 10-15 years with little return: defined Package 1 but are looking at Package 0.25 implementation!! Overall: No significant change to ATM New technology still not implemented (data link/ADS-B)

6. 6 Need to Implement: Why do we need to move forward? The capacity of the ATM system has almost caught up with demand

7. 7 Need to Implement: PRR8: Traffic Demand Very high growth in Central and Eastern Europe. Managing such high growth does present a challenge. ATM should be responsive enough to manage growth and adapt to unforeseen changes. Growth 2005-2011

8. 8 Need to Implement: Demand is taking off Traffic growth is robust: 4.5% for 2005 with summer (peak) growth at 4.7% Capacity has not been able to keep pace Growth in 2006 is forecast at 4.1% Mid-term forecasts predict 26% in 6 years (with a high of 37%) 2020 could quite conceivably see levels double 2005

9. 9 Need to Implement: We are running out of quick wins Scope for capacity increase by re-sectorisation and airspace restructuring in the core area is rapidly decreasing PRR 8: “in some parts of the core area the sector throughput is already high (e.g. 55 a/c per hour in many sectors of Maastricht UAC) … additional capacity is required... which calls for specific solutions …”

10. 10 Need to implement: Disappointing validation results “ Many of the things we thought would generate significant capacity (tools, free-routing, data-link services …) have disappointed either in validation exercises or real-world experience”

11. 11 Need to Implement: Where could ASAS fit? WP3 in ASAS TN provides an glimpse of maturity: NRA and Spacing look relatively mature – what’s holding them back? Why are we not implementing? What do we have to do to convince? Building links into other concepts to ensure acceptance Systemisation, P-RNAV, CDA Innovate the business case – take a risk!! Australia – take a decision!! US – renting out the boxes!! What can we exploit in Europe? Percentage equipage 1090 ES (35% already) NRA Spacing

12. 12 Need to Implement Integrated Future Research Summary

13. 13 Integrated future Research: Meeting the 2020 challenges 2020: Doubling the traffic Need to break out of the traditional ways of thinking Need genuinely new solutions to ATM Encourage those who are prepared to take risks Invest in potential breakthrough solutions Work together!!

14. 14 Integrated future Research No current long term large scale Air Ground Integration, 4D or ASAS research projects So: “How can we build on SESAR, FP7 and local bottom up approaches”

15. 15 Integrated future Research: A way forward Pull together the approaches on Package 2 & 3 10 years ago we had PHARE on 4D More recently we have had MFF on ADS-B / ASAS We can question the concept but research was done How can we benefit from this Things to build on? Lessons to learn? Are we ready to build an integrated research programme for advanced Air Ground Integration applications in Europe Implementation driven? In SESAR? In FP7?

16. 16 Integrated future Research: Integrated future Concept Rely on the strengths of each concept element: 4D for flow management, planning and avoidance of overloads to ensure system efficiency ADS-B / ASAS for local tactical control to ensure safety and maximise capacity

17. 17 Integrated future Research Pan European Business / benefit driven Attract decision makers!! Key stakeholders Key system elements represented Conceptual Technical Human Factors & Safety Operational Beyond Paper Simulation Live trials – real operational reality!! Confront technology!!

18. 18 Need to Implement Integrated Future Research Summary

19. 19 Summary Build on SESAR and Joint Undertaking to implement Put ASAS Package 1 into SESAR! Build on SESAR and FP7 and put your effort together to develop a long term programme Is it a virtual programme of loosely coordinated projects? Or will it be an ambitious and forward looking programme e.g. PHARE and MFF Irrespective, it needs to be a recognised approach in SESAR (lobbying) This is our challenge! Work Together!! Dare to take risks!!!