1. Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 May 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

3. Canada and US: Drier than average weather over the lower Mississippi Valley and the southern Plains resulted in expanding light to moderate drought, while above- average rainfall fell across parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the Canadian Prairies. Over the next 7 days the GFS forecasts drier than average weather for the lower Mississippi Valley and western Canada, while above-average precipitation is expected for the southern Plains and Ohio Valley. Mexico and Central America: Drier than normal weather was observed over parts of eastern Mexico this past week. Over the next 7 days the GFS forecasts above- average rainfall across much of Central America. Eurasia: Well above average temperatures prevailed across most of western and central Russia, while above-average rainfall fell across Manchuria in northern China. The GFS forecasts above-average rainfall over the next 7 days across central and southern Europe and eastern China. Highlights

4. ENSO Current Status General Summary: El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 0.5ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010 and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by summer 2010. During the last 4 weeks (11 Apr – 8 May 2010), equatorial SSTs were more than 0.5°C above average between 170°E and the west coast of S. America. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Current Status The MJO Index shows a coherent MJO signal centered the eastern Indian Ocean. The GFS MJO index ensemble forecast shows continued eastward propagation into the Maritime Continent through Week-1, with a de- amplification of the MJO signal during Week-2.  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/ Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days near to above average rainfall has occurred over the southwest US due to El Nino. During the last 90 days near average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Near average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred in parts of southern China and above average precipitation has occurred in eastern China. Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP Monsoon Season: MAY-OCTMonsoon Season: JUN-SEP

7. Northern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period ( 18-24 April 2010), an anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation center was located over northern South Asia. Anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation centers were located over the central Pacific, northern Canada, the northern Atlantic, western Europe, and the Middle East. During the same 7-day period temperatures were above average over the eastern US, western and central Russia, and eastern Asia. Temperatures were below average over northern and central Canada. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. C C C AA C C

8. Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period (2 - 8 May 2010), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over the east-central US, west-central Canada, Europe, western Russia and northern and central Asia (top panel red ovals). During the same time period precipitation was observed over the same areas. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

9. Canada and US Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, above-average rainfall fell across the Tennessee Valley into parts of Georgia and Alabama. Across the Tennessee Valley, the heaviest of the rainfall fell late last week into the early part of this week from the record-setting flooding rainfall event in this region. Below-average precipitation over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley has contributed to expansion of drought in the lower Mississippi Valley. Above-average rains were observed in eastern Quebec, while the rest of Canada saw normal precipitation amounts.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, precipitation was above average across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys (due to recent very heavy rains). Above average precipitation was also observed across northern California, the northern Rockies, the Canadian Prairies and Quebec. Below average precipitation has been observed over the central and southern Plains and the Mid-Atlantic.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days, above average precipitation has fallen across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, western Texas, parts of the Southeast, and the Canadian Prairies. Below average precipitation has been observed across the lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and western Canada.

13. 30 day rainfall totals are near average in the northwest US, above average in northern California, slightly below average in the central US, and above average in Florida. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

14. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum Below average temperatures were observed this past week across the Canadian Prairies. Above-average temperatures prevailed across southeast Canada. Overnight low temperatures ranged from -5 to -10 degrees C in the Canadian Prairies, and from -5 to 5 degrees C over southeast Canada (tending warmest near the Lakes region of southern Ontario and into southern Quebec). AnomalyExtreme Minimum

15. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum Temperatures above average across much of the eastern US, while temperatures were below average over the northern and central Rockies into the northern Plains. Below- freezing low temperatures were confined to the Great Basin, the Rockies, and eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest. Warmer than average temperatures prevailed in Mexico. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

16. TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 10 May 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 the GFS forecasts above average rainfall for central and southern Texas and the upper Midwest. Drier than average weather is expected for the lower Mississippi Valley, western Canada into the western Canadian Prairies, and across the Northern Rockies.

17. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 below-average precipitation is forecast across the central and southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and into parts of east-central Canada. Slightly above average precipitation is forecast for the Canadian Prairies. Forecasts from 9 May 2010 – Week 2

18. Forecast Verification: North America Total Anomaly Forecast from 19 Apr 2010 Valid 26 Apr – 2 May 2010 Forecast from 26 Apr 2010 Valid 26 Apr – 2 May 2010 Observed 26 Apr - 2 May 2010 Anomaly Total

19. Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly For more information see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf During the past 7 days, drier than average weather prevailed across eastern Mexico, with near normal precipitation observed over Central America.

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, above-average precipitation occurred across much of Central America (due to recent heavy thunderstorms) and into Cuba, while drier than average conditions have prevailed across eastern Mexico.

22. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, above-average precipitation occurred across much of Central America (due to recent heavy thunderstorms) Cuba and northeastern sections of Mexico. Drier than average weather has been observed over southern Mexico.

23. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30 day precipitation totals are below average across southern Mexico. Above average rainfall has fallen in the 30 day period across northeastern and southeastern Mexico and Central America.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 10 May 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 the GFS forecasts above average precipitation for Central America and Jamaica.

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 10 May 2010– Week 2 For Days 8-14 the GFS forecasts another potential heavy precipitation episode for central and southern Central American countries. Above-average rainfall is also expected across Cuba and Hispaniola.

26. Forecast Verification: Central America Total Anomaly Forecast from 19 Apr 2010 Valid 26 Apr - 2 May 2010 Forecast from 26 Apr 2010 Valid 26 Apr – 2 May 2010 Observed 26 Apr – 2 May 2010 Anomaly Total

27. Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, above-average precipitation was observed across northeastern and southeastern China and in the Alps region of southern Europe. Drier than average conditions have been observed over much of southeast Asia.

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was above average in northeastern Europe, parts of the Middle East and Indonesia, and in northeast and southeast China. Below average precipitation has fallen in central Africa, southeast Asia, southeast Europe and southwest Russia.

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, below average precipitation has been observed over central and southern Africa, western sections of Europe and Russia, and in southeast Asia. Above average precipitation has fallen across Indonesia, central and northeast China, eastern South Asia and the Middle East.

31. 30 day precipitation totals are below average in France, central Russia and the Ukraine, and above average in Hungary. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

32. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past 7 days temperatures were below average across western and central Europe and above average in eastern Europe. Some light freezes were observed in northern Spain and in northern Germany. Across Northwest Africa, temperatures were near to slightly below average in northern and central parts of Morocco and Algeria, with above average temperatures in Tunisia.

33. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum Temperatures were well above average across western and central Russia. Many districts observed above-freezing minimum temperatures, including western and central sections of the Urals District and southwestern Siberia. Some locations in the Central and Volga Districts observed lows in the lower teens.

34. 30 day rainfall totals are below average in Gujarat and central India, and above average in Luzon and eastern China. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

35. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week, above average temperatures prevailed across northern India, with slightly cooler than average temperatures over eastern and southern India. Much of China saw above average temperatures, particularly in areas along and south of the North China Plain.

36. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 10 May 2010 – Days 1-7 For more information on Global Tropical Hazards see: (updated Monday at 4pm) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ghaz.shtml For Days 1-7 the GFS forecasts above average precipitation across eastern China, eastern Europe, parts of eastern South Asia, and in scattered convection over Indonesia. Below average precipitation is expected across central and southern Africa and parts of southeast Asia.

37. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 above average precipitation is forecast for eastern China and eastern Africa. Drier than normal conditions are forecast for interior sections of southeast Asia and in central Africa. Forecasts from 10 May 2010 – Week 2

38. Forecast Verification: Eurasia Total Anomaly Forecast from 19 Apr 2010 Valid 26 Apr - 2 May 2010 Forecast from 26 Apr 2010 Valid 26 Apr – 2 May 2010 Observed 26 Apr – 2 May 2010 Anomaly Total

39. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS) Hazards Impacts Assessments for Central America http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf Africa http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/africa_hazard.pdf Afghanistan http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/AFGHANISTAN/afghanistan_hazard.pdf Meteorological Products for the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET) Mesoamerica Famine Early Warning System (MFEWS) Asia Flood Network (AFN) Funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Additional products at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/

40. USDA Crop Information Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars