1. ORCA with e J. Brunner

2. Step 1 Oscillation probabilities – Values from Fogli et al. (arxiv:1205.5254) –  23 =45˚ (avoid octant problem) – CP-phases : colored bands (NH : red, IH : blue) Averaged over fluxes (Honda) and cross sections All components taken into account – µ  µ e  e Perfect flavour identification NC ignored  ignored

3. Flavour average P osc (µ) cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85

4. Flavour average P osc (e) cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85

5. Step 2 Event Numbers for 6 years of data taking – Numbers are per bin (0.1) in cos  – Uncertainties are from width of CP-band Averaged over fluxes and cross sections All components taken into account – µ  µ e  e Perfect flavour identification NC ignored  ignored

6. N ev (µ) perfect resolution cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85 NH : 4266  21 IH : 4197  2 NH : 3345  30 IH : 3395  2 NH : 3033  5 IH : 3145  2 NH : 2948  15 IH : 3005  3

7. N ev (e) perfect resolution cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85 NH : 3781  47 IH : 3789  8 NH : 2776  51 IH : 2709  6 NH : 2241  12 IH : 2088  4 NH : 1852  27 IH : 1677  5

8. Step 3 Event Numbers for 6 years of data taking Averaged over fluxes and cross sections All components taken into account – µ  µ e  e Perfect flavour identification NC ignored  ignored Energy resolution 25% Gaussian in E

9. N ev (µ) perfect resolution cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85

10. N ev (µ) 25% E resolution cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85

11. N ev (e) perfect resolution cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85

12. N ev (e) 25% resolution cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85

13. Step 4 Event Numbers for 6 years of data taking Averaged over fluxes and cross sections All components taken into account – µ  µ e  e Flavour misidentification from P2O note NC added  added Energy resolution 25% Gaussian in E

14. N ev (µ) 25% E resolution cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85

15. Flavour misidentification cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85

16. N ev (e) 25% resolution cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85

17. Flavour misidentification cos  = 0.25cos  = 0.45 cos  = 0.65cos  = 0.85

18. Significance Cross check : Perfect conditions Ok w.r.t. V.L. & Smirnov 6 years (~ 10 Mton*years) µe

19. Significance Resolution included : 25% E ;  : 0.5  m/E Perfect particle ID, no NC,  ignored 6 years (~ 10 Mton*years) µe

20. Significance Resolution included : 25% E ;  : 0.5  m/E Imperfect particle ID, NC,  included 6 years (~ 10 Mton*years) trackscascades

21. Significance Resolution included : 25% E ;  : 0.5  m/E NO particle ID, NC,  included 6 years (~ 10 Mton*years) All events

22. Significance – time dependence Electrons are better !! Measurement still possible without particle ID Absolute values here are too good, comparison among curves counts – Solid : only resolution – Dashed : also misreco e µ No particle ID

23. Event Ratios Resolution included : 25% E ;  : 0.5  m/E Perfect particle ID, no NC,  ignored µe

24. Event Ratios Resolution included : 25% E ;  : 0.5  m/E Imperfect particle ID, NC,  included trackscascades

25. Event Ratios Resolution included : 25% E ;  : 0.5  m/E NO particle ID, NC,  included All events