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Systems to Monitor and Evaluate Reconstruction Progress in Aceh World Bank Economic Development Seminar Series Jock McKeon – 27 March 2008 World Bank Tracking the money and monitoring progress
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The rationale of post-disaster monitoring and analysis Quantify needs Determine reconstruction priorities Ascertain Government capacity Allocate funds where they are most needed Provide transparency and ability to hold agencies accountable
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Reconstruction highlights Dec 07 US$6.8 billion allocated to projects US$4.2 billion (61% allocations) disbursed US$1.2 billion disbursed to housing Environment, Energy, and Flood Control sectors remain under-funded Significant disbursements still required for housing and transport sectors Disbursements in 2007 slower than expected
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The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
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Reconstruction monitoring & evaluation methodology “Tracking the Money” Reconstruction Physical Progress Social and Economic Monitoring M&E On Budget APBN APBD Off Budget Donors NGOs # of house constructed # of school built # of health facilities built Agriculture land restored # of boat built Inflation Employment Wages Material Prices Poverty IDPs World Bank BRR UNORC Others BPS BI World Bank
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The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
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Damage and losses assessment Guided by BAPPENAS with support from international agencies Released in January 2005 to CGI www.eclac.org/mexico/documents www.worldbank.org/hazards/policy/guidelines.htm
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Tsunami damage and losses
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The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
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Determining the needs – looking ahead Value of Damages Reconstruct ion needs Reconstruct ion program Financing Formula = Damages +technological improvement +relocation costs +mitigation costs +losses relating to capacity development +inflation estimate Consider: Financing needs Priorities for reconstruction ~ sectoral ~ geographical Consider: Government funds Private sector funds Insurance reimbursement International grants International loans (diversion existing loans, fresh loans)
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Make appropriate adjustments for the needs analysis
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The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
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World Bank expenditure tracking methodology
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The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
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Sectoral allocations gaps against core minimum needs (allocations minus needs)
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Spending progress to core minimum needs (disbursements minus needs)
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The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
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Total commitments exceed minimum rebuilding costs: US$1.5 bn available for “building back better” CommitmentsAllocations
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Aceh tsunami update (Dec 07): US$7.7 bn committed US$6.8 bn allocated to projects US$4.2 bn disbursed
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Next steps? Post-conflict monitoring Continue monitoring of disbursements? (US$2.6 bn to be spent) Is there potential for Govt to adopt this reconstruction monitoring? (BAPPEDA, BPDE?)
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Working papers Managing Post-Disaster Reconstruction Finance - International Experience in Public Financial Management Fengler W, Ihsan A, Kaiser K World Bank, 2008 Using Data for Ex-Ante Preparedness for Disaster Management - Tracking the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami reconstruction funds in Indonesia McKeon JM World Bank, 2008 Tracking Financial Flows after Disasters - Reconstruction Expenditure Tracking Analysis Methodology (RETAM) Fengler W World Bank, 2007 Tracking the Money: International Experience with Financial Information Systems and Databases for Reconstruction Agustina CD World Bank, 2007 http://go.worldbank.org/TTAEQW4DR0
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www.worldbank.org/id/reconstruction
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