1. Learning from the tsunami Rohan Samarajiva www.lirneasia.net

2. Agenda  Three ways of responding to hazards 1.Pretend the danger will not happen 2.Retreat from areas of possible danger 3.Understand the risks, make the necessary preparations, get on with life  What is the choice for a dynamic growth- oriented country? For a dynamic growth- oriented firm? Role of government? Role of private sector?

3. Pretend the danger does not exist  Sri Lanka has had plenty of disasters Mostly floods and cyclones Even tsunamis  But we have passed up opportunities for effective preparedness

4. Examples: From NDMC 1999 Country Report ( excl. 2000 & ’03) YearDisasterDeathsAffected families 1978Cyclone915250000 1993Landslides29870 1994Cyclone10456 1996Cyclone108360 1997Landslides15626 2000Cyclone855000 2003Floods200+25000+

5. Consequences are serious  Because no national public warning system existed, gap between first contact (Kalmunai 0827/0836 SLT) and other locations further North, South and on West Coast not used to save lives Estimate: 7,000 could have been saved  Because no dedicated disaster warning center, no effort made to seek information in aftermath of Sumatra-Andamans quake Estimate: 23,000 could have been saved

6. Retreat from danger  If we leave Beaches for fear of tsunamis... Mountains for fear of landslides... Valleys for fear of floods.......  Where will we live?

7. Retreat  Is there any basis in law and economics?  Does  Does this approach address economic costs and tradeoffs?  What does it do to our psyche?  Is it compatible with an entrepreneurial society?  Can any firm adopt it, and yet remain dynamic?

8. Embrace risk, intelligently  Understand the hazards  Identify the economic costs and benefits  Work on disaster preparedness

9. The middle path  Do not take unnecessary risks But do not also run away from risk  Choice based on best possible information and calculation of trade- offs  “Be prepared,” but be adventurous

10. Understand the hazards  Best possible information on nature of relevant hazards  Vulnerability mapping Physical and historical data Probabilistic  Identify the economic costs and benefits Social and economic data

11. Disaster preparedness  Timely, accurate, credible warnings Consultative process in Jan-Feb 2005 Draft document at www.lirneasia.net www.lirneasia.net Revised text will be published & handed to authorities around Feb 26th

12. Disaster preparedness  Appropriate action is what will save lives Response plans, drills, audits Relocation, modifications, as required  Disaster awareness through education at all levels NIE said to be promoting in schools Vanguard Foundation will focus on media and emergency response personnel Vanguard Centre for Disaster Preparedness

13. What companies can do... Choose your approach

14. No help needed for 2; if the other..  Let’s work together to Devise industry-level responses Integrate disaster preparedness into the very fabric of how firms operate  Planning  Training  Audits  Certification

15. Useful SL websites  www.lirneasia.net for early warning discussion document, lively discussion www.lirneasia.net Emphasis on ICTs  www.vanguardfoundationlanka.org for disaster preparedness work with market emphasis www.vanguardfoundationlanka.org  www.indi.ca on seven historical tsunamis www.indi.ca