1. Emerging “green” technologies Willy De Backer Europe Director Global Footprint Network A vision too far?

2. Global Footprint Network Five-year old non-profit research organisation based in California with offices in Brussels and Zürich Work on “ecological footprint accounts” of nations, regions, cities or businesses

6. 23 September 2008 a

8. One step back: technological innovation Technology should be a means to an end: help achieve a high-quality life for more people on the planet Should be driven not just by the market but by analysis of the trends and vision of the “preferable future” Policy-makers should create the framework for innovation and technology development based on their view of the future

9. Environmental Technologies? All technologies should respect environment and ecological constraints or they are not sustainable All technological innovation should take our ecological limits into consideration

10. The Future or

11. Trends – context and drivers Environmental collapse –Climate Change –Biodiversity –Over-fishing –Water scarcity –Soil erosion

12. Trends – context and drivers Energy scarcity –Supply/demand crunch (IEA) or even peak oil, peak gas, peak coal –Shell scenarios: scramble for oil –End of cheap energy

13. Trends – context and drivers Population explosion –From 2 billion to 6 billion to 9 billion to...? –Urbanisation : more than 50% living in cities

14. Trends – context and drivers Economic power shift –The end of US economic dominance? –Power to the BRICS –sovereign wealth funds –Since 15 October 2008: the end of “market fundamentalism”

15. Preferable future: “survivable development” Manage transition from the Age of Abundance to the Age of Sufficiency Accepts “Ecological Limits” to overcome “uneconomic” growth Learn to deal with new scarcities

16. The eco-industrial revolution Respects the Planet’s ecological limits and recognises the economy as a subsystem of the global ecology/energy system Redesigns its products, systems and business models copying nature’s functionalities (e.g. waste – closed loop)

17. Technology Policy for the eco-industrial age Technology and innovation will play a key role in this transformation Governments will have to set the framework (taxes, incentives, education) for this eco-innovation revolution

18. Eco-Innovation in business Is not: business as usual + extra product line with environmental products or services Is: “business as unusual” – business for a one-planet economy

19. Eco-Innovation at the EU “ Eco-innovation is the creation of novel and competitively priced goods, processes, systems, and procedures designed to satisfy human needs and provide a better quality of life for everyone with a life- cycle minimal use of natural resources per unit output...”

20. Or in other words: Relying on traditional “environmental technologies” is just not enough Adapt our economies to the carrying capacity of our planet

21. Move to new level of imagination Product innovation – electric cars or even new transport modes Business Model innovation – car makers become transport service companies; utilities

22. Receding horizons for technology development New techological developments need more energy and more use of finite raw materials (cell phones) Higher oil price will make technology development more difficult

23. Preferable innovations New metrics of sustainability – Beyond GDP Cradle to cradle product design Decentralised, smart Energy Internet A new repair industry A global institute for the durability of consumer goods

24. Questionable innovations Agrofuels Tar sands Hydrogen cars Nuclear Renaissance Carbon capture and storage Geo-engineering to combat climate change

25. Some good advice “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.” Richard Feyman

26. Conclusion Emerging green technologies – a vision too far? No, a lack of vision. Thanks!

27. Questions? www.footprintnetwork.org willy@footprintnetwork.org