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Oct. 13 th, 2015 msusia0@gmail.com Columbus Day 2K15
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Agenda 1)Pitch (example) – Mike Metz 1)Industry & company research 2 msusia0@gmail.com
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Pitch walk-through: (CALM) Mike Metz
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Recommendation: Buy Share Price (as of 3/26/15): $38.81 Michael Metz Thomas Chadwick Cal- Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM:NASDAQ)
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Thesis Leading producer Highly fragmented industry Price shock from Chinese ban Prop 2 Acquisitions Alignment between shareholders/management Strong dividend
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Fundamentals Sector: Consumer Staples Current Price: $38.81 Market Cap: $1.87B Beta:.61 P/E: 10.16 Dividend Yield: 1/3 Net Income Paid Quarterly Last Years Annual Yield:2.87% Revenue: $1.45B EBITDA:$183M
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Egg Industry Products –Shell Eggs –Specialty Shell Eggs –Egg Products- Liquid, Frozen –Food Service –Export
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Cal- Maine Foods, Inc. Largest producer/ marketer of shell eggs in USA 3 Business Segments –Specialty Eggs –Regular Shell Eggs –Liquid, Frozen, or Dried Produces domestically
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Highest Total Layers- USA
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CALM’s Top Locations/ Brands Southwestern Southeastern Mid- Western Mid- Atlantic Egg-Land’s Best®, Land O’ Lakes®, Farmhouse®, and 4-Grain®
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Top 10 Customers
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Vertically Integrated
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CALM Egg Growth
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Top-Line Growth
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Customer’s Health Choices
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Risk Factors: 1.Egg Price Volatility 2.Feed Price Volatility 3.Shift to other products 4.Seasonality 5.Government Regulation 6.Consumer Demand 7.Barriers of Entry
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Egg Price Volatility
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Feed Price Volatility
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Risk of Consumer’s Shifting to Other Products
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Seasonality
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Government Regulation/ Barriers to Entry Prop 2 California- 2014 Animal Rights Activists –Animal Concentration
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Consumer Demand
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CAPEX Strategy Growth and Acquisition of Fragmented Market Improved Facilities
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Acquisitions Completed 18 acquisitions since 1989 Acquired remaining 50% of Delta Egg Farms for $17M- 2014
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Latest Earnings Report 12/23/14 reported Q2 of 2015 Net Sales $378.6 million (6.9% yoy) 36.6 million Net Income $0.76 per share Fiscal 2014: 1.014 Billion Dozen Shell Eggs Sold
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Financial Highlights
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Institutional/ Insider Holdings 12/23/14 reported Q2 of 2015 Net Sales $378.6 million (6.9% yoy) 36.6 million Net Income $0.76 per share Fiscal 2014: 1.014 Eggs Sold *13G/A Filing on 1-30-2015 BlackRock Institutional purchased a 6.3% stake
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Recent Decline Due to Misunderstanding China temporarily banned imports of US chicken, turkey, and eggs –Effective January 8, 2015 –Strain of (HPAI) in Pacific Northwest Occurs only in wild birds/ small domestic flocks Hundreds of miles away from US commercial prod. Exports to China account for 0.7% of total US shell egg production
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Stock Performance
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Comparable Competitors* *main peers are Rose Acre Farms, Moark LLC, Rembrandt Enterprises, Daybreak Foods CALMTSNSAFMHRLIBA Mtk Cap$1.72B$14.51B$1.83B$14.91B$2.61B P/E9.9516.436.3624.5410.14 P/B2.661.771.964.031.69 P/S1.13.41.661.59.98 Beta.61.11.621.00.72 EPS3.522.3912.412.305.15
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Review Leading producer Highly fragmented industry Price shock from Chinese ban Prop 2 Acquisitions Alignment between shareholders/management Strong dividend
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DCF Valuation
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Questions?
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Industry & Company Research Jamie Carlstedt
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How do I find a company?
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36 msusia0@gmail.com Resources Bloomberg terminal ETF Database MSU library resources Morningstar.com Finviz.com Wall Street Journal Equity Research Reports Google search for things! BEST!
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37 msusia0@gmail.com Company website Company filings Presentations Earnings calls Other juicy info… “Investor Relations”
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38 msusia0@gmail.com SEC FIlings 10-K= Annual Filing 10-Q= Quarterly Filing 8-K= Current Report DEFA14A = Proxy Filing
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39 msusia0@gmail.com Sections of 10-K 1) Business 2) Risk factors 3) Unresolved staff comments 4) Properties 5) Legal proceedings 6) Market for registrant’s common equity, related stockholder matters & issuer purchases of equity securities 7) Selected financial data 8) Management’s discussion & analysis of financial condition & results of operations 9) Quantitative & qualitative disclosures about market risk
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40 msusia0@gmail.com Sections of 10-K 10) Financial statements & supplementary data 11) Changes in & disagreements with accountants on accounting and financial disclosure 12) Directors, executive officers & corporate governance 13) Certain relationships & related transactions, & director independence 14) Principal accountant fees & services 15) Exhibits, financial statement schedules
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Value Investing Porter’s 5 forces
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- “W hether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” Recommended Reading The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham
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Hopefully not. Professional LinkedIn photos - $20 Next Wed., Oct. 21 after our meeting
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