1. KENNETH WILSON, CATHERINE F SMITH, DONNA KAIN, MICHELLE COVI & DOUG SOLOMON EAST CAROLINA UNIVERSITY SOUTHERN SOCIOLOGY SOCIETY ANNUAL MEETING APRIL 8, 2011 Who Considers Evacuation When a Hurricane Approaches?

2. Research Case study of hurricane risk and emergency communication in eastern NC 2008-2010 We surveyed 20 counties and interviewed 6 counties in- depth. SurveyedInterviewed Residents (year-round) 1087 120 Businesses and Organizations 600 120 Local Government Officials NA 24 (EMs, PIOs, county commissioners, county managers)

3. Presentation Agenda This presentation focuses on identifying those who consider evacuation when a hurricane is approaching the coast. It uses the results of telephone/internet surveys in the 20 NC CAMA counties and Insights from interviews/focus groups in 6 counties

4. Households Respond to Severe Weather Many households take the threat seriously  68% reported that they had a disaster preparedness plan  76% know the location of an emergency shelter  91% know the evacuation route from their home  82% know if an evacuation order covers their home

5. Households Respond to Severe Weather Things are getting better and families are more willing to plan for an emergency today  In our survey, 68% of respondents had a plan  After Hurricane Floyd, only 56% had a plan  After Hurricane Bonnie, only 49% had a plan  A Socioeconomic Impact Analysis for Hurricanes Bonnie, Dennis and Floyd by John C. Whitehead, Marieke Van Willigen, Bob Edwards, Kenneth Wilson and John Maiolo, the Final Report to North Carolina Division of Emergency Management (HMGP 1240-0012) and North Carolina Sea Grant (NCSU 1998-0617-08), June 2001.

6. Who has a plan? Table 2 Factor Influences Having a Plan Have a Plan Exp(B)SigExp(B)Sig SocialIncome 1.1290.014 BackgroundEducation 1.1950.006 VariablesAge 1.1560.080 Married 0.9570.827 Children at Home 0.7820.226 Length of Residence 0.9720.045 RiskMobile Home, RV,Boat 0.7430.2111.1130.681 VariablesEvacuation Covers Home 1.1840.0051.1510.028 Neighbors Evacuate? 1.2080.0051.1780.023 Live in a Surge Zone 1.5900.0361.5520.064 Risk from Flooding 0.9560.6330.9730.788 Risk from Wind 1.0450.6281.0280.774 Constant 0.7380.4210.3050.053 Model Chi-Square(df) 28.233(6).000 62.832(12) 0.000 CV Block Chi-Square(df) 44.894(6) 0.006 Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 28.233(6).000 17.938(6) 0.000 % Correct Predictions 70.1% 72.1% Cox & Snell R 2 0.036 0.082

7. When Severe Weather Threatens…

8. Considerations “Once you think your safety may be at risk, what are the most important considerations when deciding whether or not to evacuate?”  Strength of the hurricane (93%)  Direction of the hurricane (78%)  A mandatory evacuation order (67%) People want to make their own decision but your evacuation orders are part of their decision-making process

9. Households Respond to Severe Weather 14% reported at least one time they did not evacuate when they should have Why:  did not feel threatened (28%)  did not realize how bad the storm would be (22%)  thought the storm was not severe or close enough (15%). While people are confident that they will make the right decision, people make mistakes.

10. Who prepares to leave? Table 3 Factor Influences Who Prepares to Evacuate Prepare to Evacuate Exp(B)SigExp(B)Sig SocialIncome 1.0490.591 BackgroundEducation 0.9700.784 VariablesAge 1.2820.116 Married 0.3420.001 Children at Home 1.9080.061 Length of Residence 0.9740.267 RiskMobile Home, RV,Boat 2.9890.0013.1320.002 VariablesEvacuation Covers Home 1.2510.0811.3630.033 Neighbors Evacuate? 1.5110.0001.5530.000 Live in a Surge Zone 0.9390.8591.0640.871 Risk from Flooding 0.9920.9590.9210.631 Risk from Wind 1.1490.4091.1790.367 Constant 0.0070.0000.0040.000 Model Chi-Square(df) 31.775(6).000 62.832(12) 0.000 CV Block Chi-Square(df) 44.894(6) 0.006 Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 31.775(6).000 17.938(6) 0.000 % Correct Predictions 92.5% 72.1% Cox & Snell R 2 0.040 0.082

11. Who prepares to make a decision? Table 4 Factor Influences Who Prepares to Decide Prepare to Decide Exp(B)SigExp(B)Sig SocialIncome 1.0620.181 BackgroundEducation 1.0420.481 VariablesAge 1.0560.482 Married 1.3030.148 Children at Home 1.2740.197 Length of Residence 0.9560.001 RiskMobile Home, RV,Boat 1.2140.4011.4770.117 VariablesEvacuation Covers Home 1.1160.0531.0840.179 Neighbors Evacuate? 1.1140.0721.1070.113 Live in a Surge Zone 1.4740.0481.5510.035 Risk from Flooding 1.0630.4871.0800.408 Risk from Wind 0.8620.0820.8250.034 Constant 0.8980.7630.9440.920 Model Chi-Square(df) 19.347(6).000 62.832(12) 0.000 CV Block Chi-Square(df) 44.894(6) 0.006 Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 19.347(6).000 17.938(6) 0.000 % Correct Predictions 58.5% 72.1% Cox & Snell R 2 0.024 0.082

12. Who prepares to ride out the storm? Table 5 Factor Influences Who Prepares to Ride Out the Storm Prepare to Stay Exp(B)SigExp(B)Sig SocialIncome 0.9200.082 BackgroundEducation 0.9720.653 VariablesAge 0.8690.090 Married 1.0540.788 Children at Home 0.6140.017 Length of Residence 1.0610.000 RiskMobile Home, RV,Boat 0.4780.0060.3740.001 VariablesEvacuation Covers Home 0.8400.0030.8560.013 Neighbors Evacuate? 0.7540.0000.7450.000 Live in a Surge Zone 0.6730.0630.6020.025 Risk from Flooding 0.9260.4150.9400.537 Risk from Wind 1.1240.1971.1740.095 Constant 1.7530.1361.6880.391 Model Chi-Square(df) 50.594(6).000 84.579(12) 0.000 CV Block Chi-Square(df) 30.694(6) 0.000 Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 50.594(6).000 53.884(12) 0.000 % Correct Predictions 66.3% 68.8% Cox & Snell R 2 0.062 0.108

13. Conclusions -- Planning The risk variables show that people who know their home is covered by an Evacuation Order, whose Neighbors evacuate and who live in a Surge Zone, are more likely to have a plan. Income and Education increase the likelihood of having a plan and length of residence decreases it. When controlling for the background variables, Knowing that your home is covered by an evacuation order and having neighbors who evacuate still increase the likelihood of having a plan.

14. Conclusions -- Evacuating Living in a Mobile Home, knowing that an evacuation Order covers your home and having neighbors who evacuate increase the likelihood that a household will prepare to leave. Being married and length of residence decreases the likelihood that you will prepare to evacuate but having children living with you increases the likelihood. After controlling for the background variables, the same risk variables influence the likelihood of preparing to leave.

15. Conclusions-- Deciding Knowing that an evacuation order covers your home and living in a storm surge zone increases the likelihood of preparing to make a decision when a storm approaches. When other variables are controlled, length of residence, living in a storm surge zone increase the likelihood of preparing to make a decision while a higher subjective risk of wind damage decreases the likelihood

16. Conclusions – Riding Out the Storm Living in a risky structure, knowing that evacuation orders cover your home and having neighbors who evacuate decrease the likelihood that you will prepare to ride out the storm. When other variables are controlled, having children living in the home decreases the likelihood that you will prepare to ride out the storm while longer length of residence increases it. Living in a risky structure, knowing that your home is covered by evacuation orders, having neighbors who evacuate and living in a storm surge zone decreases the likelihood that folks will prepare to ride out the storm.

17. Acknowledgements “Hurricane Risk Perception and Emergency Communication Effectiveness in Coastal Zones” Catherine F. Smith, Donna J. Kain, Kenneth Wilson Research Assistants Michelle Covi, Douglas Solomon, and others Supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Sea Grant North Carolina and East Carolina University

18. For this report in full... Http://www.ecu.edu/riskcomm