1. Update: NCHRP Synthesis 20- 05/Topic 40-06 Advanced Practices in Travel Forecasting Presented to: AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group October 1-2, 2009 Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning Presented by: Guy Rousseau Atlanta Regional Commission

2. Membership Rebekah Anderson, Ohio DOT Brian Gregor, Oregon DOT Danny Lamb, Florida DOT Yali Li, Michigan DOT Doug MacIvor, California DOT Phillip Reeder, Texas A & M University Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission Supin Yoder, FHWA Liaison Ken Cervenka, FTA Liaison Kim Fisher, TRB Liaison Nanda Srinivasan, TRB Liaison Synthesis Staff: Jon Williams, TRB Synthesis P.I.: Bill Davidson & Rick Donnelly, PB

3. Schedule & Time-Table Work Plan / Outline / QuestionnaireNov 15 2008 First Draft May 12 2009 Second Draft Sept 18 2009 Panel TeleconferenceMid-Oct 2009 Final DraftNov 2009 PublicationJan 2010

4. Background & Motivation TRB Special Report 288 calls for...development and implementation of new modeling approaches to demand forecasting that are better suited to providing reliable information for such applications as multimodal investment analyses, operational analyses, environmental assessments (including GHG), evaluations of a wide range of policy alternatives, toll-facility revenue forecasts, freight forecasts, and meeting federal and state regulatory requirements.

5. Background & Motivation Workshop 127 of the 2008 TRB Annual Meeting featured presentations from 10 U.S. metropolitan areas that have advanced models in various stages of development, from full deployment to preliminary planning.

6. Goals/Objectives/Scope Compile experience and knowledge of advanced travel forecasting models that are operational or in the process of becoming operational Focus on institutional issues associated with implementing models Present a general description of technical aspects of the models

7. Included in the Scope Tour / activity-based models Land use & economic models Traffic simulation models Freight & commercial travel models Statewide models Integration of advanced models components for one coherent practice

8. Case Studies from Draft # 2 San Francisco Sacramento, CA Portland, OR Lake Tahoe, NV Interviewed or Surveyed: Los Angeles, CA Seattle, WA Atlanta, GA Columbus, OH New York Metropolitan Area Denver, CO Phoenix, AZ