1. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering Reliable Software Research and Technology Transition Barry Boehm, USC NASA IT Workshop July 31, 2001

2. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE2 Outline Reliable Software Strategic Context –Opportunity Tree Reliable Software Technology Prospects Reliable Software Technology Transition –Software Technology Transition Challenges –Technology Transition Rate Drivers –Technology Transition Acceleration –Staged Testbed Experimentation

3. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE3 Software Dependability Opportunity Tree Decrease Defect Risk Exposure Continuous Improvement Decrease Defect Impact, Size (Loss) Decrease Defect Prob (Loss) Defect Prevention Defect Detection and Removal Value/Risk - Based Defect Reduction Graceful Degradation CI Methods and Metrics Process, Product, People Technology

4. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE4 Software Defect Prevention Opportunity Tree IPT, JAD, WinWin,… PSP, Cleanroom, Dual development,… Manual execution, scenarios,... Staffing for dependability Rqts., Design, Code,… Interfaces, traceability,… Checklists Defect Prevention People practices Standards Languages Prototyping Modeling & Simulation Reuse Root cause analysis

5. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE5 People Practices: Some Empirical Data Cleanroom: Software Engineering Lab –25-75% reduction in failure rates –5% vs 60% of fix efforts over 1 hour Personal Software Process/Team Software Process –50-75% defect reduction in CMM Level 5 organization –Even higher reductions for less mature organizations Staffing –Many experiments find factor-of-10 differences in people’s defect rates

6. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE6 Software Defect Detection Opportunity Tree Completeness checking Consistency checking - Views, interfaces, behavior, pre/post conditions Traceability checking Compliance checking - Models, assertions, standards Defect Detection and Removal - Rqts. - Design - Code Testing Reviewing Automated Analysis Peer reviews, inspections Architecture Review Boards Pair programming Requirements & design Structural Operational profile Usage (alpha, beta) Regression Value/Risk - based Test automation

7. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE7 Orthogonal Defect Classification - Chillarege, 1996

8. UMD-USC CeBASE Experience Comparisons - http://www.cebase.org “Under specified conditions, …” Technique Selection Guidance (UMD, USC) Peer reviews are more effective than functional testing for faults of omission and incorrect specification –Peer reviews catch 60 % of the defects Functional testing is more effective than reviews for faults concerning numerical approximations and control flow Technique Definition Guidance (UMD) For a reviewer with an average experience level, a procedural approach to defect detection is more effective than a less procedural one. Readers of a software artifact are more effective in uncovering defects when each uses a different and specific focus. –Perspective - based reviews catch 35% more defects 807/31/01 CeBASE

9. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE9 Defect Impact Reduction Opportunity Tree Business case analysis Pareto (80-20) analysis V/R-based reviews V/R-based testing Cost/schedule/quality as independent variable Decrease Defect Impact, Size (Loss) Graceful Degredation Value/Risk - Based Defect Reduction Fault tolerance Self-stabilizing SW Reduced-capability models Manual Backup Rapid recovery

10. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE10 C, S, Q as Independent Variable Determine Desired Delivered Defect Density (D4) –Or a value-based equivalent Prioritize desired features –Via QFD, IPT, stakeholder win-win Determine Core Capability –90% confidence of D4 within cost and schedule –Balance parametric models and expert judgment Architect for ease of adding next-priority features –Hide sources of change within modules (Parnas) Develop core capability to D4 quality level –Usually in less than available cost and schedule Add next priority features as resources permit Used successfully on 24 of 26 USC digital library projects

11. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE11 HDC Technology Prospects High-dependability change –Architecture-based analysis and composition –Lightweight formal methods Model-based analysis and assertion checking –Domain models, stochastic models High-dependability test data generation Dependability attribute tradeoff analysis –Dependable systems form less-dependable components –Exploiting cheap, powerful hardware Self-stabilizing software Complementary empirical methods –Experiments, testbeds, models, experience factory –Accelerated technology transition, education, training

12. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE12 Outline Reliable Software Strategic Context –Opportunity Tree Reliable Software Technology Prospects Reliable Software Technology Transition –Software Technology Transition Challenges –Technology Transition Rate Drivers –Technology Transition Acceleration –Staged Testbed Experimentation

13. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE13 Adoption requires behavioral change Payoffs take a long time to demonstrate –And are hard to trace back to particular technology insertions Marketplace often makes “fixing it later” more attractive than “doing it right the first time” –“The IT industry expends the bulk of its resources, both financial and human, on rapidly bringing products to market.” -PITAC Report, p.8 Strong coupling among technologies, processes, acquisition practices, cultures Rapidly evolving commercial technology Slowly evolving Government acquisition practices Risk-averse program managers Leaky intellectual property Software Engineering Technology Transition Challenges

14. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE14 1. Competition-criticality 2. Impact on current operations, power bases 3. Number of concurrent innovations involved 4. Adopter change/risk-aversion 5. Payback realization speed 6. Regulatory obstacles or incentives 7. Degree of executive support 8. Factor Endowment (human, knowledge, capital, infrastructure) Technology Transition Rate Drivers

15. University of Southern California Center for SoftwareEngineering 07/31/01©USC-CSE15 Technology Transition Acceleration: Staged Testbed Experimentation Assess technology readiness, scalability, generality by experimental use in staged testbeds –Stage I: small representative subsystems –Stage II: larger subsystems with representative mission components –Stage III: part-to-full systems in full mission simulator –Stage IV: test-mode application to full mission-systems Use Goal-Question-Metric approach –Goals: mission objectives and priorities –Questions: content and hypotheses to test –Metrics: data to collect and analyze