1. Statistics for Public Policy Forum 6 November 2015 1

2. The changing UK population Neil Park 2 Neil.Park@ons.gov.uk

3. Structure 1.The UK population in 2014 2.How did we get here? 3.What will the population be like in the future? 4.Some implications for policy 5.Closing thoughts 3

4. Demographic challenges Sustained and continuing population growth Uneven population growth (geographical/age/ethnicity/over time) The ageing population – increasing life expectancy combined with “baby boomers” leaving working age population Life expectancy v healthy life expectancy Migration leading to increased population diversity 4

5. The UK population in 2014 Mid-year estimate was 64.6 million An increase of 0.8% on 2013 and 2% on 2011, 9.3% on 2001 Population aged 15 and under = 18.8% Population aged 16 to 64 = 63.5% Population aged 65+ = 17.6% Dependency ratio (dependents/working age) = 614 per 1000 5

6. Population by age and sex: now and historical (UK) 2001 Population U16 = 20.0% Population aged 16 to 64 = 64.0% Population aged 65+ = 15.8% Dependency ratio (dependents/working age) = 623 per 1000 6 600 400 200 Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics

7. Population by age and sex: now and historical (UK) Cohort comparison Estimates for 2001 “aged on” to 2014. Shows mortality for older ages. Net international migration for working ages Births/migration for those under 12 7 600 400 200 Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics

8. What’s been driving population growth? 8 Source: Office for National Statistics

9. Natural change/migration inter- dependence International migrants are often young adults Young adults are fertile Net inflows lead to an increase in births, net outflows a decrease (potentially). 9 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014 Thousands Uk born motherNon UK born mother

10. Ethnic composition of population by age, England and Wales, 2011 10 Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics

11. Ethnic composition of population, England and Wales, 2001 11 Source: 2001 Census, Office for National Statistics

12. Distribution of ethnic groups across England and Wales, 2011 12 Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics

13. Population change at Local levels 13 Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics

14. How will the population change in the future? Population projections Take a base year (2014) They are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality and net migration derived from analysis of recent demographic trends. These assumptions are judged to be the best that could be made at the time they are adopted. Alternative ‘variant’ projections also produced, high/low fertility, mortality, migration. 14

15. The population: now, in the past and in the future (UK) 15 2014, 64.6m 2001, 59.1m 1961, 52.8m 2039, 74.3m 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 19611966197119761981198619911996200120062011201620212026203120362039 Millions Variant rangePopulation estimatesPrinciple projection Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics

16. Understanding “uncertainty” in population projections 16 101520253035404550556065707580859095100105110115120125 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 05 Thousands Age Variant range, 20392014 Population estimatePrinciple projection 2039Zero net migration Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics

17. Population by age and sex, now and projection for 2039 17 Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics

18. Projected population growth (%) for countries and regions of the UK London North East 18 Source: Mid-year estimates and 2012 Sub-national Population Projections, Office for National Statistics

19. Note: These figures take into account the change in State Pension Age under existing legislation. -20 0 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 All3&45 to 1112 to 1516 to 1718 to 21Working ageSPA85+ 20202039 UK Population to grow: short term falls in some age groups 19 -9% 4% -1% 9% -6% -3% 16% 15% 1% 9% 18% 10% 7% 11% 33% 137% Percentage difference from 2014 Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics

20. The ageing population Population aged 65+ projected to increase by 58% by 2039 Population aged 85+ projected to increase by 137% by 2039 Population aged 16-64 to increase by 4.8% Dependency ratio is increasing. Increases in state pension age to mitigate this Encouraging older people to remain in work Consider the effect of international migration 20

21. 1996200120062011201620212026203120362039 High/low mig 65+EstimatesPrinciple (65+)Principle (66+) Principle (67+)Policy (67 by 2028)Principle (68+) 19861991 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1982 Dependencyratio (dependents/working age*1000) Dependency ratio: change over time under different scenarios 21 2014: 614 2001: 623 1982: 659 2028: 598 2039: 666 Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics

22. 19871990-19921995-19972000-20022005-20072010-201220172022202720322037 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1980-19821985- Life expectancy at birth MalesFemalesMales (projected)Females (projected) Life expectancy, increased in the past, projected to increase further 22 1980-2, 71m, 77f 2014, 79m, 83f 2039,84m, 87f Source: Office for National Statistics

23. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (at birth), 2009-11 23 HLE as proportion of LE (%) Source: Office for National Statistics

24. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age Healthy life expectancy at a local level Healthy life expectancy below SPA across most of the country for males, 2011-2013 24 Upper tier Local authorities in North East North West Yorkshire and The Humber East Midlands West Midlands East London South East South West SPA (65)

25. Change in population, households and dwellings 25 Note: dashed lines are projections Source: Mid-year estimates and National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics; Household estimates and projections & Dwelling stock, Department for Communities and local government

26. Coherence between Population and dwelling stock change, 2001-2014 26 Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics; Dwelling stock, Department for Communities and local government

27. Demographic challenges Sustained and continuing population growth Uneven population growth (geographical/age/ethnicity/over time) The ageing population – increasing life expectancy combined with “baby boomers” leaving working age population Life expectancy v healthy life expectancy Migration leading to increased population diversity 27

28. Questions Thank you 28

29. International migration: A closer look Paul Vickers Head of Population Outputs Office for National Statistics 6 November 2015 29

30. International migration time-series 30 Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration and International Passenger Survey

31. International migration time-series 31

32. Who is immigrating to the UK? 32 14 are British citizens 20are ‘EU15’ citizens (e.g. France, Spain, Italy, Germany) 12 are ‘EU8’ citizens (e.g. Poland) 9are Romanian or Bulgarian 44are citizens from outside the EU For every 100 immigrants to the UK... International Passenger Survey, provisional estimates year ending March 2015

33. Immigration by citizenship 33 Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration

34. Main reason for immigration 34 Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration Other Accompany/Join Formal study Work related YE Jun 05YE Mar 15pYE Jun 05YE Mar 15pYE Jun 05YE Mar 15p TotalEUNon-EU 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Per cent

35. Political and public agenda Reduce net migration to tens of thousands Majority of EU citizens immigrate for work Over half of non-EU citizens immigrate for study Can only be controlled by restrictions for non-EU citizens EU referendum Depending on the outcome could allow more restrictions for migration 35

36. Impact of international migration 1 Labour market International students Population growth e.g.: Housing Transport Local areas are affected differently Economic performance 36

37. Labour market: Definite job or looking for work by citizenship 37 Source: ONS, International Passenger Survey

38. Labour market: Work-related immigration by previous occupation 38 Source: ONS, International Passenger Survey Professional & ManagerialManual & ClericalOther EUNon-EU Non-EU Non-EU Non-EU Non-EU 20102011201220132014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Per cent

39. Labour market: Skilled work visa applications by industry sector 39 Source: Home Office, Immigration Statistics

40. Labour market: Workers in different industry groups by nationality 40 20072014 Industry sectorUK NationalsEU15EU8 & EU2Non-EU UK NationalsEU15EU8 & EU2Non-EU Agriculture286352 3464173 Energy & Water4516514 49771419 Manufacturing3,27658103105 2,6315618979 Construction2,415355549 1,9993211250 Distribution, hotels & restaurants4,97493107271 4,976145270266 Transport & communication2,5254939128 2,3427196139 Banking & finance3,92411148214 4,553171128217 Public admin, education & health7,74513738328 8,439202109329 Other services1,445302461 1,583444570 Total27,0415234251,171 27,3657329801,172 The nationality of workers in employment in the UK by industry sector, 2007 and 2014 Source: Annual Population Survey Thousands

41. Labour market: Workers in different industry groups by nationality, 2014 41 Industry sectorUK Nationals 1 Non-UK Nationals 2 Agriculture, foresty and fisihng 34624 Mining and quarrying 12716 Manufacturing 2,631324 Electricity, gas, air cond supply 17112 Water supply, sewerage, waste 19813 Construction 1,999194 Wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles 3,707354 Transport & storage 1,299170 Accommodation and food services 1,269327 Information and communication 1,043136 Financial and insurance activities 1,079114 Real estate activities 31918 Prof, scientific, technical activities 1,942199 Admin and support services 1.212185 Public admin and defence 1,78270 Education 2,971207 Health and social work 3,685362 Arts, entertainment and recreation 74560 Other service activities 75170 Households as employers 5419 Extraterritorial organisations 3310 Total 27,3652,883 Source: Annual Population Survey

42. International students: Contribution to the UK economy Latest HESA data shows 19% of students are non-UK nationals (non-EU 14% & EU 5%) Flows of international students show: 188,000 people immigrated to the UK for study in YE March 2015 Of these 72% were non-EU citizens 42

43. International students: Immigration for study by institution 43 Source: Home Office, Immigration Statistics

44. Note: These figures take into account the change in State Pension Age under existing legislation. -20 0 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 All3&45 to 1112 to 1516 to 1718 to 21Working ageSPA85+ 20202039 International students: UK Population, short term falls in some age groups 44 -9% 4% -1% 9% -6% -3% 16% 15% 1% 9% 18% 10% 7% 11% 33% 137% Percentage difference from 2014 Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics

45. Population growth: The effect of net migration, UK, 2039 45

46. Impact of international migration is regional 46

47. Economic performance: Impact on emigration 47 Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration

48. Impact of international migration 2 Impact on services e.g.: schools health benefits Economic impact e.g.: economic growth tax receipts for public services local and national 48

49. Challenges Improving the evidence base to improve knowledge of impact: Administrative data source Migrant survey Improve communication of latest statistics for policy makers 49

50. Discussion Policy impacts of international migration Understanding what policy makers questions are Engaging with policy makers 50

51. Population statistics for the future Better Statistics, Better Decisions Sarah Crofts

52. Making better use of existing data Better decisions Better statistics Improvin g data to ‘fill the gaps’ The future of populatio n statistics

53. Where are we now? 53 How is the population ageing? Analysis Fertility How has the UK population changed? How does migration affect the population of the UK? Families Mortality

54. What we want : Better decisions Our strategy is to be more helpful to provide statistics and analysis to inform policy decisions We meet regularly with analysts in government departments, but we could do more There are gaps in understanding on the effects of population change on the economy, housing, demand for local services and social cohesion

55. Examples of policy area questions Elderly – hospital / care needs Housing Older Workers Schools Childcare Jobs and employment Jobs for young people / university / apprenticeships Economic impact of migrants and international students

56. What we want: Better statistics More frequent, cheaper and improved statistics can provide better information for policy – means better decisions Dependent upon Good understanding of requirements, including policy need Access to administrative data Developments in administrative data to ensure it is fit for statistical purposes

57. Example - the contribution of migration to the changing population Currently based on the International Passenger Survey – provides good national level estimates, but there are gaps: Local level migration analysis difficult Based on intentions to migrate Illegal migration (non-EU not leaving when visas expire) Administrative data can help to fill these gaps Lighter shade is net migration component of population change

58. Examples of administrative data to better understand migration New HO exit check data – still under development DWP and HMRC data can be used to identify economically active migrants. Can also identify economic benefits of migration. Higher Education Statistics Agency data could provide more information on student migration NHS data 58

59. How do we get there? Ideally, data sources would be linked together For example, New Zealand has launched its ‘Integrated Data Infrastructure’ (means bringing data sources together in one place) FamiliesHouseholdsCrime Statistics NZ Surveys Census since 1981 HealthEducationMigrationWelfareTaxEmployment ‘Super File’

60. The journey Getting access to data is not easy. Better access to data sources would mean more efficient, better statistics Administrative systems not set up for statistical purposes, for example -Different definitions -Linking can be difficult -Timing issues

61. And when we are there? Frequent, high quality data will be available to support decision making in key policy areas, such as housing, education, migration and health People come to ONS first for data and analysis on population statistics Existing data sources are improved for statistical purposes New data sources would be set up with statistical benefits in mind

62. Making better use of existing data Better decisions Better statistics Improvin g data to ‘fill the gaps’ The future of populatio n statistics More analysis New outputs Better accessibility Understanding requirements Accessing new data Developing data sources

63. Questions for the forum What are the big questions that ONS population statistics will need to answer? Now? In the near future? In the Longer term?