1. Modeling Working Group Progress Report to TAS TEPPC Quarterly Meeting November 2-5, 2015 Tom Miller- MWG Chair W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

2. Discussion Topics MWG Work Plan Development Update on Modeling Enhancements for 2026 Common Case Draft- MWG Work Plan – Software-Change Tracking Next Steps for MWG Work Plan Gridview Modeling Developments – CAISO Modeling Enhancements 2 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

3. MWG Work Plan Development Better inform WECC Staff and TAS-SG Description: high level description of the enhancement – Status: is the enhancement available now, and if not what is the expected availability – GridView Version: What version will have the capability of the enhancements? Will these versions be available to WECC? – Implementation Work Plan: how much ABB support to WECC staff is needed to test, validate and calibrate the enhancements plus timeline. Data requirements. 3 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

4. ABB Gridview Enhancements ABB Gridview Updates & New Enhancements Current Status and Implementation Effort Recommendation for 1 st Release 2026 CC Multi-Day Look-ahead Logic: robust unit commitments and scheduling of energy storage Under testing now. May require more time and energy to tune parameters to get the best results Postpone implementation until after first release of the 2026 Common Case v1.0 FERC 789 Reserves: updates contingency reserve modelling to current requirements FERC 789 Operating Reserve ready now. Easy to implement once BA’s and regional pools defined. Yes, implement for V1.0 2026 Demand Response Modeling (LBNL): LBNL method to calculate DR for load trigger programs and pricing trigger programs. LBNL has complete pre-testing and now available to WECC in Gridview. LBNL will consult. Moderate effort. Yes, implement for V1.0 2026 Contingency Protocol: critical to align what constraints have merit over others and much better understanding of study results Low effort implement. MWG to develop priorities and “proxy” costs. Validation runs recommended Yes, implement for V1.0 2026 Intertie Ramping: Constrains volatile ramps across major Ca interfaces Available in GridView version. Draft 2010 data ramp limits available. Defer to Q2. Moderate effort to implement. Need MWG Recommendation/TAS approval? Gridview Version UpdatesNeed to aggregate enhancementsSeek WECC Budget support 4 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

5. MWG 2015-2016 Work Plan Draft 5 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL ItemTimelineModeling Enhancement 1Q-3 2015(1) Investigate Expected GridView Capability; (2) Prioritize Modeling; (3) MWG/WECC Staff Work Plan 2Q-4 2015Develop modeling enhancement test cases. Modeling Enhancement implementation on 2026 CC. 3Q-1 20162026 Common Case first releases: (1) FERC 789 Reserves; (2) System Constraints (3) Demand Response; (4) CHP Enhancements; (5) Min-Gen Requirement Update; (6) Initial Validation/Calibration 5Q-2 2016Batch-2 Enhancements (test, validate/calibrate) Validation/Calibration (deeper dive) 5Q-3 2016Batch-3 Enhancements (test, validate/calibrate) (1) Hydro Reserves; (2) Intertie Ramp Limits (3) Multi-day look-ahead logic (4) Resource Modeling 6Q-4 2016Batch-4 Enhancements (test, validate/calibrate) Hydro PLF Load net-solar/wind; (2) GHG Linear Programing

6. Software-Change Tracking Commensurate with tracking done for data-set For Modeling Enhancement: – Description – Benefits and Key Questions – Priority – Development status (early, testing, validation, implementation) – Effort and timeline Update in Version Release Notes Modeling enhancement “Wish List” useful to inform WECC budget 6 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

7. Next Steps for MWG Work Plan Feedback from WECC on MWG proposed Work Plan – Feasibility check and/or recommended changes – Commitment to MWG Work Plan Modeling Working Group: Work Plan Review TAS-SG: Coordination with DWG and SWG? 7 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

8. ABB Modeling Developments W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

9. ABB Gridview Users Group Round Trip: very good progress  Look ahead Logic: currently under testing by CAISO, favorable initial response; areas identified some room for improvement  Convert Nodal model to Zonal model – Transportation model with 1 click  Dynamic Hydro Scheduling: 14 intervals (august split in two); schedule inflow/outflow; uses HTC/PLF  Sub-Hourly Capability: simulation for real-time market simulation – sequential market simulation with day-ahead market simulation useful for EIM.  Opportunity for WECC: ABB offering to develop capability free for WECC to support sub-hourly studies. Need sub-hourly data (NREL wind/solar/Loads etc.) 9 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

10. Operating Reserves for Flexibility NREL Method and PNNL Method – NREL method to calculated flexible reserve requirements for renewables – PNNL method to calculate regulation up/down and load following up/down reserve for renewables and loads CAISO implementing PNNL Method into Gridview – Gridview Co-optimization of Energy Market and Ancillary Service (AS) Markets Question: should TEPPC shift from NREL Method to PNNL Method 10 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

11. Expanding Footprint of Centralized Dispatch Geography Wheeling model: Closed-loop BA export wheeling (to simplify BA modeling) Wheeling discount for zone groups (to approximate EIM in an hourly model) Contract paths with wheeling exemption (to avoid multiple charges) California AB32 GHG emission model: LP model with resource-specific emission penalty (to replace emission hurdle model) Commitment and dispatch visibility to external systems (to depict non-EIM members) BPA+ = BPA + CHPD + DOPD + GCPD + SCL + TPWR Source: CAISO

12. Questions or Comments 12 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

13. Reference Slides W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

14. Enhancement Implementation Identify Modeling Need Develop Modeling Perform Test Case- proof of concept Recommendations/Approvals Investigate Regional Variations Translate Expected Assumptions Calibration/Validation 14 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

15. FERC 789 Reserve Modeling Objective: represent new FERC 789 operating requirements ABB has developed and has implemented new reserve requirements in their models New FERC 789 Operating Reserve Requirements: – 3% Load- calculated from static loads – 3% Generation- LP adjusted for hour to hour dispatch – 50% Spin/ 50% Non-Spin – BA and/or Reserve Pool Modeling Capability has been developed and will be available to WECC 15 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

16. Demand Response Program Modeling Objective: improve demand response modeling and process efficiency ABB working with Andy Satchwell LBL Demand Response Program Modeling – Price or load trigger Programs Price an load triggers Time increments of 2-4-8 hour blocks by month Max DR MW by month – Output:- hourly DR schedule by area Modeling capability available to WECC and ready for testing in TEPPC dataset 16 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL